Pronko: Is everything moving towards a new large-scale privatization?

Russia is undergoing an unprecedented redistribution of property. According to experts, only in the past few years, the state has reclaimed assets worth 2.56 trillion rubles. The reasons and motivations for such operations vary, but there is an important detail — the Ministry of Finance openly admits that a new large-scale privatization is being planned.

In March this year, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said:

We will launch a 'large-scale privatization' plan.

The amount involved nationwide remains negligible this year — the income from selling state-owned assets this year is expected to be at most 300 billion rubles.

The Ministry of Finance does not hide its plans and intends to "actively promote the privatization of assets included in the state treasury through judicial rulings." These assets have already generated revenue for the state and are listed on the "second" privatization list, with a total valuation exceeding 1 trillion rubles. Experts believe that ordinary people may play a role in this.

Due to the central bank's interest rate hikes to curb inflation, large amounts of funds have accumulated in high-interest deposit accounts. Therefore, economist Alexander Plastunov believes that the idea of attracting ordinary people to participate in privatization is timely:

The funds accumulated in accounts need to be injected into the economy in some way. I think privatization will help attract these idle funds. Currently, dividends are lower than deposit rates, but this does not mean that investment should not be made. Future interest rates may decline, while stock prices may significantly rise. Of course, no one can guarantee 100% returns, but the state will introduce tested assets for sale on real exchanges.

Alexander Shokhin, chairman of the Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, recently stated that the new round of privatization is expected to attract part of the nearly 60 trillion rubles in bank deposits held by ordinary Russians.

At the same time, financial analyst Alexander Razuvayev believes that attention should not be focused on account funds but rather on the $100 billion in cash held by ordinary people:

I think privatization is a good thing. According to the Federal Antimonopoly Service, our state economy accounts for 70%, while the International Monetary Fund says it is 30%. But this was before the special military operation. The more securities circulating, the better. If we talk about attracting people's funds, this is not about selling 'Slav Petroleum' to the Chinese or Indians. If stocks are listed for sale, they can be gradually sold, allowing the state to retain majority control.

Economist Maxim Dovgalo reminded in the program "Key Points" that currently most Russian state-owned enterprises cannot increase dividends, and some companies like Gazprom do not distribute dividends at all. He believes that if state-owned enterprises are to pay dividends, market conditions need to change, which may attract foreign investors who are likely to be the first to snap up quality securities from privatized Russian state-owned enterprises.

There are two risks here: First, if the scale of privatization exceeds 25%, there is a risk of losing sovereign management rights; second, against the backdrop of the continuous appreciation of the ruble (which the central bank cannot explain), a large inflow of foreign investment into the Russian economy will inevitably lead to further appreciation of the ruble, which will first impact local producers forced to compete with foreign suppliers, potentially leading to economic difficulties. Economists summarized.

Which fields may be redistributed and privatized? Transportation and port businesses, petrochemicals, food industry, agriculture, mining, and perhaps power and energy. However, the repeated "re-privatization" and "privatization" are playing jokes on these assets: long-term development plans cannot be formulated and implemented, investments decrease, development stagnates, and ordinary people are generally unwilling to invest in these capricious assets.

It is worth noting that re-privatization, privatization, and property redistribution not only involve the corporate sector. For example, the Constitutional Court of Russia abolished the statute of limitations for irregularities in privatization, affecting all suburban villa properties across the country — because modern suburban communities are built on privatized agricultural land.

If the elite set their sights on your property, it can be "taken back" at any time because almost any privatization ruling on these lands can be found loopholes. Russia has launched a mechanism that will have far-reaching effects, but it cannot guarantee that national and social interests will take precedence during this process.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7506768181336310282/

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