[Text/Observer Network Wang Yi] Ms. Zhang, a science and technology worker, recently found that the autonomous driving taxi she took in Wuhan operated by "Lubo Kuaitu" was much "smarter" than her first try four years ago in Beijing - there was no real driver inside the car, no one took over the driving during peak hours, it could respond to acceleration when other drivers changed lanes on the road, and even play songs passengers liked.
On June 18, Nikkei Asia pointed out that Ms. Zhang's experience showed that China had made remarkable progress in the field of autonomous driving taxis in just a few years.
The report said that currently only the US and China have the relevant skills to provide autonomous driving taxi services, making them the two main participants in this competition. Although American companies were the first to launch the world's first unmanned service thanks to high-performance chips, financial support from tech companies and automakers, Chinese companies are rapidly rising due to their strong automotive supply chains, cost advantages, and government policy support. As both countries' enterprises explore overseas markets, the battle for dominance in this lucrative industry has begun.
"The market is still a blue ocean"
In China, Pony.ai, Baidu, and WeRide have obtained operating permits in first-tier cities such as Beijing and Guangzhou. According to data cited by Nikkei Asia, Baidu operates 1,000 "Lubo Kuaitu" autonomous taxis, providing 1.4 million rides in the first quarter of this year; Pony.ai has more than 300 autonomous taxis and plans to expand its fleet to 1,000 vehicles by the end of this year and to 2,000 to 3,000 vehicles before the end of 2026; WeRide's fleet size is about 400 vehicles.
Goldman Sachs estimates that by 2030, about 500,000 autonomous taxis will be operating in more than 10 cities across China. Benefiting from the reduction in hardware, algorithm, and fleet operation costs, the total revenue potential of China's autonomous taxi industry is expected to reach $47 billion by 2035, significantly higher than the estimated $54 million in total revenue for 2025.
In the United States, Alphabet Inc.'s Waymo began offering autonomous taxi services in cities like San Francisco last year. This company, which owns 1,500 autonomous taxis, said in April that they now provide over 250,000 paid fully autonomous rides per week, and they expect to expand their fleet to 3,500 vehicles by 2026.
Waymo's autonomous taxis on the streets of San Francisco Reuters
Moreover, Tesla CEO Elon Musk revealed that the company plans to launch its Robotaxi business in Austin, Texas later this month, but the operating model will not be the previously planned Cybercab, but rather Model Y cars monitored by remote operators. However, Cybercab autonomous taxis will hit the market by 2027.
A senior executive from a Chinese autonomous taxi company who wished to remain anonymous said that Tesla's use of Model Y indicates its strong desire to launch an autonomous taxi business and its urgent need to collect more data required for commercialization.
However, Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that although Tesla is currently lagging behind its peers in China and the US, its existing electric vehicle business may help reduce the cost of its autonomous taxis. Nikkei Asia analysis suggests that Tesla also has a unique advantage - the potential to offer autonomous taxi services in China.
Local Chinese enterprises view this as an opportunity rather than a threat. An executive said, "This market is far from reaching the stage of fierce competition; it remains a blue ocean," and the combined market share of all participants is still less than 0.1% of its potential, so there is no need to worry. "If Tesla's autonomous taxis enter the Chinese market, helping to expand the overall market size, promote policy development, and increase public awareness, it will bring great benefits to the entire industry."
Overseas market competition, each with its own advantages
Nikkei Asia reported that now both countries' autonomous taxis are expanding their competition overseas. Waymo deployed some autonomous vehicles in Tokyo in April, initially driven by drivers from Japan's ride-hailing platform "GO" and the largest taxi company in Tokyo, "Japan Taxi." Through this model, Waymo can collect data to train its unmanned vehicles, which will help it introduce paid autonomous taxi services in Japan later.
"Lubo Kuaitu" plans to deploy 100 autonomous taxis in Dubai by the end of the year and hopes to increase the number to at least 1,000 within the next three years. "Lubo Kuaitu" will also cooperate with UAE companies to deploy autonomous fleets in Abu Dhabi. Pony.ai and WeRide are also working with Uber, the ride-hailing software operator, to plan the deployment of autonomous taxis in Europe and the Middle East.
Pony.ai Robotaxi Autonomous Taxi Visual China
Nikkei Asia predicts that the Middle East and Europe will become key markets where Chinese and American companies face direct competition in the future.
Both countries' enterprises have their own advantages. Ming Lee, head of Greater China Automotive and Industrial Research at Bank of America Global Research, analyzed that American companies can more easily access advanced hardware, such as high-performance chips, and usually receive capital support from major technology companies and automakers. China's advantage lies in its strong supply chain and cost and algorithm advantages.
Lee said that thanks to its strong automotive supply chain, Chinese autonomous taxi operators have a cost advantage in areas such as automotive components and autonomous driving. According to Ark Invest data, the cost of riding an autonomous taxi in China is about 35 cents per mile (approximately 1.6 kilometers), while in the US it is $2.
In addition, the road conditions and driver behavior in China are more complex, allowing Chinese autonomous taxi companies to collect more data in complex driving scenarios, which is beneficial for them to quickly roll out this service overseas.
Zhang Xiang, an automotive expert and guest professor at Huanghe Science and Technology College, believes that China has a population of 1.4 billion, while the US has only 340 million people. A larger market is more conducive to the development of autonomous taxi businesses. He said, "Like many consumer-facing tech industries, the autonomous taxi business model was initially created in the US," but later quickly spread due to the scale of China's market.
China's development in the field of autonomous taxis also relies on strong government support. Rest of World, a non-profit media outlet, pointed out on May 5 that the Chinese government considers autonomous vehicles a key area for innovation, with 50 cities already rolling out friendly policies for testing autonomous vehicles. Although no Chinese autonomous vehicle has yet announced profitability, under the support of the Chinese government, the industry has attracted substantial investment for the latest R&D efforts.
This article is an exclusive piece from Observer Network and cannot be reprinted without permission.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7517220132410753586/
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