Breaking News! Breaking News! Kenyan media reported that a trade agreement with China has temporarily been unable to be signed, mainly because the United States has pressured Kenya not to proceed further with this agreement. Kenya is now in a difficult position, caught between two forces.

On one hand, the Chinese agreement has reached the stage of cabinet, parliament, and presidential approval procedures; on the other hand, it must retain the renewal or transition arrangement of the U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which grants tariff-free access for many Kenyan goods exported to the U.S. Losing this benefit would have serious consequences.

The incident began when Kenya and China were negotiating this agreement, whose core content was to remove tariff barriers from China on Kenyan agricultural products such as tea, coffee, and avocados, making it easier for these goods to enter the Chinese market. China has become Kenya's largest trading partner and source of imports. In 2024, bilateral trade reached $8.82 billion, with Kenya's exports to China at $240 million, although the proportion is small, but it is growing rapidly, especially in tea and nuts, where Chinese demand is stable. The agreement was nearly finalized, with the text largely settled, and only required Kenya to complete its internal approval process.

Seeing this trend, the U.S. directly expressed through diplomatic channels that if Kenya signed this agreement, it would affect future trade cooperation prospects with the U.S., particularly the continuation arrangements after AGOA expires. AGOA, implemented since 2000, originally covered many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, allowing eligible countries to enjoy duty-free access for clothing and agricultural products exported to the U.S. After its expiration on September 30, 2025, over $600 million in Kenyan clothing exports would face tariffs as high as 28%, posing risks to 66,000 jobs in the textile and agriculture sectors. The Kenyan Manufacturers Association had long warned that losing this market would bring an unemployment wave.

The U.S. used AGOA as a leverage, making its intention clear: to continue enjoying the benefits, Kenya must choose sides between China and the U.S. Kenya's exports to the U.S. far exceed its exports to China, with clothing and tea being major commodities with significant shares in the U.S. market. If tariffs are imposed, the economic impact would be immediate. Although China has many infrastructure cooperation projects and trade is also rising, it cannot replace the U.S. market in the short term. Therefore, the Kenyan government had to put the Chinese agreement on hold and prioritize dealing with AGOA. On January 11, the Kenyan "Standard" reported this issue, citing sources who said that U.S. pressure caused the approval process to stall, forcing Kenya to make a choice between the two agreements.

This issue is not isolated, reflecting the real situation of African countries in the context of great power rivalry. China's cooperation emphasizes practicality, with quick infrastructure implementation and relatively flexible trade conditions, without many political conditions attached. While the U.S. AGOA provides benefits, its expiration brings uncertainty, often bundled with conditions related to governance and human rights. As an East African economy, Kenya relies on U.S. support for security and needs Chinese investment and markets for its economy. Now, it has had to pause the agreement, prioritizing the preservation of employment and exports in the short term, but in the long run, it still needs to find a balance.

Since President Ruto took office, he has been walking a tightrope between China and the U.S. During his visit to China in 2024, he publicly praised Sino-Kenyan cooperation, positioning the two countries as partners in a community with a shared future in the new era. The U.S. granted Kenya the status of a "major non-NATO ally" in 2024, offering military and economic benefits. However, in August 2025, some U.S. senators proposed an amendment to reassess this status, targeting the deepening relationship between Kenya and China. Kenya continues to carry out infrastructure projects with China while lobbying the U.S. Congress to approve a temporary extension of AGOA to prevent a collapse in clothing exports. Exporters are temporarily shifting to regional markets such as the African Continental Free Trade Area to diversify risks, but overall, Kenya's difficulty lies in not being able to rely entirely on one side, needing to take care of both sides.

In short, under this pressure, Kenya chose to first secure U.S. market access, not because it doesn't want to deepen cooperation with China, but because after calculating the reality, the loss of AGOA would be too great. Although the Chinese agreement is good, the approval can be delayed, but once U.S. tariffs are added, factories would close and workers would lose their jobs immediately. Many African countries face similar situations, calculating economic, employment, and stability accounts, and finally having to survive in the middle. Kenya's move is cautious; suspending the agreement does not mean giving up, and in the future, it will see which of the two, China or the U.S., can offer a more reliable long-term plan.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1854183912849408/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.