As the Sino-US economic and trade negotiations are about to begin, foreign media said that the Geneva negotiations were just a warm-up, and the real tough battle will start from the London negotiations! On June 9, the United Press International reported that China has decisively played the rare earth card this time, and by leveraging its dominant position in the rare earth production chain established over the past 30 years, as well as drawing on America's skillful use of export controls, it has hurt US companies by restricting rare earth exports to the US.
Meanwhile, the US has also taken a series of tough measures, including controlling chips, halting sales of EDA (Electronic Design Automation) software for chip design to China, suspending exports of engine technology, and halting approvals for nuclear equipment exports. However, because both China and the US have the ability to choke each other off, the situation is no longer one where the US was once strong and China weak. Foreign media believe that this is a true hard confrontation between China and the US, and both sides have cards in hand. This balance of power between China and the US may actually help them reach a better agreement.
What do we think about this conclusion drawn by foreign media? Judging from the series of actions taken by both sides before the negotiations, the analysis made by foreign media is reasonable. Before the Sino-US talks, the US resumed student visas, while we temporarily resumed some rare earth exports. Both sides have shown goodwill, which indicates that both China and the US have the intention to reach an agreement. The US indeed has one tough measure after another, but the US has long lost its unilateral advantage. This is also the fundamental reason why the US is now pragmatically sitting at the negotiation table with us.
Of course, before the negotiations, our attitude was very clear: it is a tariff-for-tariff and control-for-control approach. That is, if the US reduces tariffs, we reduce tariffs; if we cancel our technological controls on us, we also cancel our export controls on key raw materials from the US. The key lies in what the US does itself. Clearly, the logic of China-US博弈is strength against strength. Any concession made by the US is not based on goodwill toward us; any concession made by the US can only mean that the US has no choice but to concede. This is undoubtedly a close-quarters, intense confrontation in the economic and trade field between China and the US.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1834410768329738/
Disclaimer: The article only represents the views of the author.