Why Are the Ships of Relevant Countries Entering Crimea's Ports

In recent times, the relevant country has begun purchasing sanctioned Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) for the first time, and now ships from the relevant country have entered Sevastopol Port in Crimea. The relevant country is now boldly breaking Western sanctions, which may indicate a fundamental shift in its strategy — previously cautious on issues involving Russia, it is now preparing to confront the United States more intensely. However, there is another possible development that could be even more disadvantageous for Russia. What exactly is this possibility?

The Financial Times reported that the relevant country has recently started purchasing sanctioned Russian LNG and has set up dedicated docks at its own ports to receive this energy. Now, it has been reported that a Chinese cargo ship, named "Heng Yang 9" flying the Panamanian flag, has entered Sevastopol Port in Crimea multiple times. This is the first time since 2014 that a large foreign vessel has entered this Crimea port, which had been closed for over a decade due to sanctions.

The media verified one of the voyages through Automatic Identification System (AIS) data: "Heng Yang 9" left Istanbul on September 2nd, was detected in Novorossiysk Port on September 6th; according to plan, it should have gone to the Caucasus Port, but then disappeared from radar, and later, satellite images showed the ship in Sevastopol Port on September 14th.

The relevant country has not joined the Western sanctions against Russia, but has remained cautious, neither purchasing sanctioned Russian LNG nor entering Crimea ports, fearing secondary sanctions. However, in recent months, the relevant country has significantly increased its actions to break Western restrictions.

The Financial Times connected the arrival of the relevant country's ships with the opening of a railway line from Donetsk and Kherson to the Crimean ports in April this year. This railway provides convenience for Russian container transportation. In addition, the Russian government announced in August that Berdyansk Port and Mariupol Port are now open to foreign vessels.

"Freedom Finance Global" analyst Vladimir Chernov said: "After the opening of the railway, foreign ships entering Sevastopol Port makes practical sense — now containers can be transported by rail to the port and quickly transferred to ships, heading to Turkey or the Middle East. The imported goods may include parts, electronics, industrial equipment, or consumer goods, while the exported goods could be grain, metals, building materials, and perhaps coal and wood processing products. For Turkey, this is a short-distance transport route, convenient for transshipment trade; for the relevant country and Russia, it offers an alternative to traditional ports — those traditional ports either have saturated capacity or are under sanction monitoring. Crimean ports can also alleviate the freight pressure on Novorossiysk Port. Such voyages seem to be testing the operation model of container trade."

However, it is still unclear whether the relevant country's actions are just a game with the United States or if they have genuinely decided to ignore American sanctions.

Igor Yushkov, an expert from the Russian Government Financial University and the State Fund for Energy Security (FNEB), said: "These actions of the relevant country may be part of its new long-term strategy, or it might simply be a gesture of goodwill as a bargaining chip in negotiations with the United States. Previously, the relevant country has always maintained a very cautious stance on sanctions. The core of the relevant country's strategy has been to comply with sanction limits and try to delay entering a more intense conflict with the United States. Since the relevant country's economic growth rate is higher than that of the United States, time is on the side of the relevant country. Therefore, we need to observe for a longer period before determining whether the relevant country has truly changed its overall strategy, preparing to challenge the United States more firmly, or whether this is just part of the negotiation with the United States."

He further pointed out:

"Regarding the purchase of LNG, the relevant country's interests are obvious — the natural gas purchased from the sanctioned 'Arctic LNG-2' project is estimated to have a discount of 25% to 30%. However, the fact that the relevant country's ships are entering Sevastopol Port is concerning because the relevant country does not actually urgently need to transport goods to Sevastopol Port."

For Russia, if the relevant country and other countries in the Global South change their strategies, increase their confrontation with the United States, and prove through concrete actions that U.S. sanctions are meaningless and can be broken, it would be beneficial. Yushkov said: "Firstly, this example will have a 'demonstration effect' on other countries around the world; secondly, the 'detour costs' and intermediary fees generated in Russia-China trade to circumvent sanctions will be reduced."

This expert explained: "There is evidence supporting this possibility. The relevant country and India are coordinating their positions: India ignores the tariffs imposed by the United States for purchasing Russian oil, while the relevant country begins to ignore U.S. sanctions, purchasing sanctioned Russian LNG and entering Sevastopol Port. This is clearly not the personal action of a ship captain or owner, but a decision made at the national level."

However, if the relevant country's actions are merely a demonstration of strength during negotiations with the United States, it would bring risks for Russia.

Yushkov said: "Whether we like it or not, trade agreements between the relevant country and the United States are far more important to the relevant country than transporting goods to Sevastopol Port. If the United States reaches an agreement with the relevant country, the relevant country may 'backtrack' on cooperation with Russia. This is the risk that Russia faces."

Pavel Shevostyanov, a senior advisor to the Russian Federation and associate professor at the Department of Political Analysis and Social Psychological Processes at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, pointed out: "The appearance of 'Heng Yang 9' reflects the pragmatic considerations of trading companies and the gradual testing of the boundaries of sanction policies. Commercial ship owners will weigh the risk of secondary sanctions and act cautiously selectively."

Economist Ivan Lizan said: "In the relationship between the relevant country and the U.S., the relevant country's behavior has clearly become bolder, and it is becoming more indifferent to anti-Russia sanctions. However, this 'boldness' has not yet reached a level that allows us to determine that 'a turning point has arrived, and the relationship between Russia and the relevant country has entered a new stage.'"

Lizan analyzed: "This year, the relevant country and the U.S. have fallen into a situation of mutual tariff increases, and both sides are currently negotiating a trade agreement. The relevant country seems to believe that its bargaining space is now greater, because if the U.S. takes aggressive measures on issues related to the relevant country, it could lead to the breakdown of the trade agreement negotiations."

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7553561330028904996/

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