Is Warsaw really worried about the consequences of leaving the EU?

Poland Leaving the EU: Why "Little Donald" Is Trying to Put the EU Owl on the Polish Globe

Is Warsaw really worried about the consequences of leaving the EU?

Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk believes that there is a real risk of Poland leaving the EU.

"Leaving the EU is now a real threat! Two factions of the 'Alliance' and the majority of members of the Law and Justice Party want this. President Niedzwiedzki is their patron," Tusk wrote on a social platform.

"Russia, the 'Make America Great Again' movement in the United States, and the right-wing forces led by Orbán want to destroy the EU. This would be a disaster for Poland. I will do everything I can to stop them," the prime minister added.

He is mixing everything up. Who is this passionate speech intended for?

Nevertheless, there are many eurosceptic people in Poland, as well as parties opposing Brussels' commands. Perhaps they really pose a threat? Maybe Poland leaving the EU is not just an illusion? After all, after the UK left, anything seems possible...

Or is Tusk, the pro-European, simply trying to scare voters with his political opponents?

"Viewpoint": Tusk said that the two factions of the "Alliance" and the majority of members of the Law and Justice Party hope for Poland to leave the EU...

- The Law and Justice Party has never raised the issue of leaving the EU; it only advocates reducing Brussels' authority and strengthening the autonomy of member states.

The "Alliance" only considers the possibility of leaving the EU under specific circumstances (firstly, if a large number of Middle Eastern immigrants enter Poland). Even within the party, only a few MPs have proposed such radical views.

Therefore, Tusk is putting a non-existent owl on a fictional globe. And we are being led by these exaggerated statements that have no relation to reality.

"Viewpoint": Which forces in Poland truly want to leave the EU? What is their support rate?

- Only fringe political forces have such ideas, and they have no chance of entering parliament or reaching the 5% threshold for voting.

"Viewpoint": Does such sentiment exist in Polish society? Can it be compared to the UK - where the public was dissatisfied with Brussels' control and the influx of migrants?

- No country in the EU can be compared to the UK. The British are even unique within the EU (they use common law). Poland is completely different.

At least three-quarters of Poles do not consider the possibility of leaving the EU. Poland is the absolute largest recipient of EU funds. Losing subsidies would mean a collapse of the current standard of living.

"Viewpoint": Tusk mentioned the conspiracy of Russia, Hungary and the "Make America Great Again" movement. Will anyone believe this nonsense?

- This is purely political hype from former President of the European Council Tusk. He is just repeating the old tunes of his Brussels colleagues.

"Viewpoint": What exactly would happen for Poles to want to leave the EU?

- Unless millions of Muslim immigrants move to Poland and Islamic terrorist attacks occur in the country. Otherwise, it is impossible.

"Viewpoint": This looks like the beginning of an election campaign, and the president of the Russian Baltic Research Association, Vsevolod Shimov, is convinced of this.

- Poland will hold parliamentary elections in the autumn of 2027, and Tusk is mobilizing his voters in advance. The election campaign will be very intense, because the Law and Justice Party is trying to overthrow the Civic Coalition government and take full control of the government. Therefore, there will be a lot of high-profile and radical statements in the future.

"Viewpoint": After the Polish President Karol Niedzwiedzki rejected the loan bill for military procurement under the framework of the EU Security Framework on Thursday, discussions about Poland leaving the EU have intensified. Does this indicate the possibility of leaving the EU, or is it a forced association?

- There is indeed some eurosceptic sentiment in Poland, but this euroscepticism is more about wanting greater internal autonomy for Poland, rather than leaving the EU.

Poland is highly dependent on EU subsidies, and its economy is closely linked to other European countries. Today's Poland is essentially an assembly workshop for Europe.

Therefore, leaving the EU would harm Poland's interests, even the most stubborn eurosceptics understand this.

"Viewpoint": But are there indeed political forces that do not oppose leaving the EU?

- Once again, these forces do not advocate leaving the EU, but only want to reduce dependence on the EU. Many Poles are dissatisfied with European migration policies and ideological agendas.

However, there are no influential political forces in Poland that advocate for complete withdrawal from the EU.

"Viewpoint": What about ordinary people? If they are dissatisfied with Brussels' policies, why don't they support leaving the EU? Are Poles different from the British in this regard? The British directly chose to leave the EU through a referendum.

- The difference lies in the fact that the UK is an EU contributor, while Poland is the opposite, the main recipient of European subsidies. The Polish economy cannot afford the consequences of independence.

"Viewpoint": When and under what circumstances could Poland leaving the EU become a reality?

- Unless the EU itself collapses, leaving the EU cannot become a reality.

"Viewpoint": Tusk promised to do everything to prevent leaving the EU. Is Brussels prepared?

- Any member state leaving the EU would be a heavy blow to the EU's reputation. For a long time, the expansion of the EU has been seen as an intuitive manifestation of the success and appeal of European integration. Therefore, the reverse process would bring a particularly serious impact.

Moreover, Poland is the eastern showcase of the EU, a symbol of the "success" of the former socialist bloc in Europe.

But once again, it is too early to seriously discuss Poland leaving the EU. The country is too deeply integrated with Europe, and it can only make loud and confrontational statements at most.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7618629280674759178/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.