Sergei Kiriyenko may be appointed as the "land collector" of the Soviet 2.0
Russia's foreign policy will be separated from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and entrusted to the Presidential Administration — not entirely, but the core part
Image: Sergei Kiriyenko, First Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of Russia
By the end of this year, the Russian Presidential Administration (AP) will establish a new department responsible for some aspects of Russia's foreign policy. What about the Ministry of Foreign Affairs? Why is the Kremlin building a second line of foreign policy?
The new institution within the Presidential Administration will handle affairs related to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and certain interactions with countries in the Global South. It will not involve cooperation with all foreign countries. The head of this department could be Sergei Kiriyenko, a Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration.
Currently, he oversees the domestic political department, the social processes monitoring and analysis department, the public projects department, and the information communication technology and communication infrastructure development department within the Presidential Administration.
Given such a heavy workload, adding a significant portion of foreign policy responsibilities — will this overburden this former Prime Minister, president and administrator of Rosatom? Or is there no one else who can handle it?
Previously, the institution within the Presidential Administration responsible for foreign affairs was led by Dmitry Kozak. There are rumors that when Russian forces crossed the border into Ukraine in February 2022, he called the office of Zelenskyy's chief of staff Yermak, suggesting that Ukraine surrender.
Now, there are reports on Telegram channels that Kozak may be transferred to another position within the Presidential Administration. Some say he might go to St. Petersburg, others to other places. This indirectly confirms that the responsibilities previously held by this official may be handed over to the new head.
"The domestic political department will deeply participate in this work, largely because Russia is preparing to provide support for state-building to a series of countries," an insider explained the current situation.
Having those who promote the development of Russia's own national system provide this "state-building support" — what does it mean? Is it to integrate CIS countries into Russia? Or to create a Soviet 2.0 version, where republics are "remotely controlled" like the EU?
Over the past 2-3 years, Kiriyenko has frequently visited Donbas, Zaporozhzhya, Kherson, including the Zaporozhzhya Nuclear Power Plant, which the Russian public has witnessed, fully aligning with the framework of the recent restructuring of the functions of the Presidential Administration.
Certainly, in form, these regions have become new federal subjects of Russia — as reflected in the constitution — but in reality, it still requires significant effort to make them truly an organic part of the country. In fact, these regions are currently in a "gray zone," similar to Abkhazia, South Ossetia, or Transnistria.
If Moscow decides to open a corridor from Kherson to Tiraspol, then the Nikolaev and Odessa regions will also become such "gray zones." In that case, the front lines of work will expand further. The efficient team led by Kiriyenko at Rosatom will face formidable tasks.
Recently, Moldova sentenced Yevgeniya Gutsul, the leader of the Gagauz Autonomous Region, to 7 years. This autonomous region in Chișinău, which is friendly to Russia, may now fall under the jurisdiction of the Presidential Administration led by Kiriyenko.
Perhaps someone was previously in charge of Gagauz affairs? Regardless, rescuing this brave woman from the grip of Maia Sandu will be a major test of the new institution of the Presidential Administration in handling CIS foreign affairs.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia may be able to help, for example, by working with Erdogan, or at least with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan (who presided over the negotiations in Istanbul). After all, the Gagauz people are Turkic, although they follow Eastern Orthodoxy. To have such a "backer" and not use it is really a pity.
Another area of work for the new department of the Presidential Administration may be Kazakhstan. Recently, a pro-Russian blogger, Aslan Tolganov, was arrested there, and Kiriyenko applauded him during his visit to Moscow. President Tokayev himself was once an diplomat...
Additionally, it would be possible to rescue Elmek Tekebekov from the labor camp in Karaganda. If Kiriyenko's new institution successfully rescues the above three pro-Russian foreigners, the reputation of the Russian world "rescuer" will significantly increase.
And there are also Russian detainees in Azerbaijan...
In short, the principle is clear. The new foreign affairs institution of the Presidential Administration should be closer to specific individuals who suffer due to being hostages of enemies of the "Russian world." This will be its difference from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
By the way, the Presidential Administration may not wait for the support of veteran diplomats. Struggles between departments have never ceased (just like in the movie "Seventeen Moments of Spring," where Tavrov portrayed the director of the security bureau Schellenberg, secretly maneuvering against Miller, played by Bronyevoy, the Gestapo).
Our diplomats may be dissatisfied with these changes. In the bureaucratic system, even high-ranking officials losing part of their functions means losing resources — both material and political. This obviously won't please anyone.
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Having non-Ministry of Foreign Affairs officials handle foreign affairs and building a second line of foreign policy indicates that in this new historical phase, people no longer trust the first line of foreign policy to solve overseas issues.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not raised much objection. After all, Sergey Lavrov recently admitted that in the confrontation with the West, Russia currently has no allies on the battlefield, while in previous eras, we always had satellite states.
No matter how many times we repeat the old saying that the army and navy are Russia's only reliance, this situation means diplomatic failure.
But the problem is, our diplomats find it hard to find allies. If in the early 21st century, the president set foreign policy as integration with the West, then later it shifted to confrontation with the West. In this "sharp turn," it is almost impossible to build alliances.
The Kremlin transferring part of the foreign policy power to the Presidential Administration is an attempt to address the consequences of this policy inconsistency. It no longer relies on diplomats (old dogs can't change their habits), but instead on pragmatic technocrats to resolve this contradiction.
However, years of failure have also triggered another "problem." Now, so-called "traditional values" are used as an ideological basis, and Moscow needs to spread them abroad. However, the value differences among different cultural backgrounds in the post-Soviet space are huge.
This issue is inherited from the Soviet Union. But during the Soviet era, the vast cultural differences between Estonians and Tajiks were maintained through a supranational socialist ideology. Now, can a single national tradition, such as the Russian tradition, maintain the same huge cultural differences? It's hard to say.
But why should we worry about this? Now, it's the responsibility of the new team of the Presidential Administration.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7535420899718201891/
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