Zangazur Trap: Turkey Finally Realizes It Has Fallen into America's Trap

Ankara and Tbilisi Have Aligned Their Timings, a Revolutionary Moment

Photo: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili (from right to left)

Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili made an "unexpected" official visit to Turkey and held talks with Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Both sides openly stated that they are "aligning regional time," referencing the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace agreement brokered by Donald Trump in Washington. At the same time, the two leaders also discussed bilateral relations.

The Turkish newspaper "Hürriyet" wrote: "Tbilisi and Ankara believe that a geopolitical revolution has emerged in the region, with America as another external force genuinely intervening, but the question is, what kind of vacuum are the Americans eager to fill?"

It remains clear that "in certain situations, the connectivity between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan through the Zangazur corridor is merely an excuse for building a new relationship in the region. Now, with American influence appearing in the area bordering Iran (effectively also bordering Turkey), this region has expanded to the Near East." But these are just theoretical discussions; how about the actual situation?

Turkish experts urge not to be blinded by the excitement brought by public statements about opening the Zangazur corridor. The Americans call it the "land-based Panama Canal," a bridge connecting North Asia, Central Asia, and the world. Dogu Perincek, leader of the Turkish "Fatherland Party" and an expert, believes this is precisely dangerous.

He said the Zangazur corridor "is an initiative of the United States and Israel, not only threatening Iran's security, but also Turkey's." Turkey is already surrounded by the military and political influence of the United States and Israel — from the Aegean Sea and the eastern Mediterranean to northern Syria and northern Iraq, and their intervention in the Caucasus will bring additional dangers.

The trick lies in the so-called "Trump, Aliyev, and Pashinyan agreement," which provides the United States with a rare geopolitical opportunity — to block Turkey in the South Caucasus and combine it with the "intermediate corridor" concept related to transportation route initiatives with relevant countries, fundamentally reshaping the security architecture of the region.

Not by chance, last year Ankara, Doha, Abu Dhabi, and Baghdad signed an agreement to create a railway transport corridor connecting the Persian Gulf to Europe through Turkish territory. This is likely to complement the Zangazur corridor, jointly building new east-west trade routes.

On the surface, the United States is strengthening the "intermediate corridor," but in reality, it is trying to weaken the influence of relevant countries in the Eurasian continent, and all of this theoretically limits Turkey's established logistics advantages. Because if one does not consider all the complexities of the South Caucasus strategic environment, the prospects brought by this project may turn into a geopolitical trap.

From the current situation, Russia, Iran, and relevant countries seem to have been excluded from this process. There are many reasons for this. However, it should be understood that they can always play a role in various forms.

Therefore, Georgia is being cautious in handling this issue. Tbilisi claims that the Zangazur issue is "not a focal point of competition, but an opportunity for cooperation, but within the framework of the Caspian-Black Sea corridor," implying a preference for the European direction rather than the Near East. It should be noted that the "north-south" project passing through Azerbaijan, Iran, and the ports of Abbas and Mumbai in India is currently stalled due to tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia.

In fact, a geopolitical diplomatic game is already unfolding on multiple strategic boards. By the way, the joint statement issued by Yerevan and Baku in Washington on August 9 states: "The Republic of Armenia will cooperate with the United States and agreed third parties to develop the 'Trump Roadmap' for transportation connections for international peace and prosperity..."

Finally, in this transitional "dry residue," the South Caucasus has once again become a hotspot on the geopolitical map. But it is no longer part of Russia's periphery.

While keeping distance from Russia, the South Caucasus republics are forced to integrate into increasingly close networks of connections with their southern, western, and eastern neighboring countries. At the same time, the region remains one of the most volatile areas in Europe and the Near East.

This largely relates to the history of the 1910s-1920s. During that period, Western policies in the region aimed at freeing local countries from Russian influence. In a way, this goal was achieved, but the three South Caucasus countries still have different considerations regarding their political orientations: Georgia leans towards NATO and the EU, Azerbaijan is a strategic partner of NATO member Turkey, and Armenia remains an ally of Russia.

In this context, we can only discuss the overall geopolitical mission of the South Caucasus theoretically. Unlike the 1910s-1920s, Russia has not been completely pushed out of the region, including the Black Sea and Caspian Sea areas. The West tried to exploit Georgia's national political issues, but the country's elites have never fully become agents of Western policy, and have lost hope of regaining the territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Therefore, the international function of the region cannot be resolved through transportation issues, and the goals of its participants are not all clearly visible.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7538370800823435826/

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