Microsoft CEO and Altman's relationship has soured, and OpenAI has been "cut off from supplies."

Hengyu, from凹非寺
Quantum Bit AI | Official Account QbitAI

It's sudden.

Optimus and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, who haven't appeared together for a long time, just "showed affection" on Twitter and revealed that they are discussing new progress in their cooperation.

This sudden operation makes one wonder if there is a new release?

But upon careful investigation, it may be more likely to respond to new rumors.

In the past few days, The Wall Street Journal has dropped a bombshell:

Optimus and Nadella, the big names who once made two companies cooperate successfully, are increasingly at odds with each other, drifting further apart.

Who is Optimus? The helmsman of OpenAI; who is Nadella? The current leader of Microsoft.

In most people's vague concept, OpenAI is the pioneer that sparked this wave of large model trends, while Microsoft is its backer.

Before the advent of ChatGPT, Microsoft had injected huge funds into the then somewhat obscure OpenAI to support its research in the AI field. Later, it continued to increase its investment, providing money, cloud servers...

However, at the beginning of this month, Microsoft suspended the construction of three data center campuses in central Ohio, which were part of a $1 billion investment plan. Not only this one, but Microsoft is "slowing down or pausing" some AI data center projects. This looks like OpenAI's computing power assistance will be greatly reduced as a result.

The Wall Street Journal has now delivered a heavy blow, directly "exposing": there are still growing rifts between the two.

— To put it more accurately, the relationship between OpenAI and Microsoft is becoming increasingly subtle, even tense.

Optimus and Nadella, Growing Apart

It should be noted that during the most dramatic gossip involving OpenAI, namely Optimus being ousted by the board and quickly "returning to power," Nadella stood firmly on Optimus's side.

Moreover, Optimus publicly stated that the relationship between OpenAI and Microsoft was堪称"the best cooperation in the tech world."

However, what happened in such a dramatic event has changed in just over a year and a half. The relationship between Optimus and Nadella has changed.

On the surface, the two companies represented by the two individuals still maintain close cooperation, but astute gossips have noticed that there are often real evidence or rumors of their arguments circulating.

In short, rumors of their bickering constantly appear, presenting a situation of "incessant quarrels."

According to informed sources, there are currently about three things that are making the cracks between the two big names grow larger.

1) Computing needs and access rights.

2) When to reach AGI.

3) Internal competition adds uncertainty.

Computing Needs and Access Rights

According to insiders familiar with both OpenAI and Microsoft, Optimus and Nadella are increasingly at odds over issues such as Microsoft's computing capabilities provided to OpenAI and the permissions for startups to open their models to tech giants.

For example, OpenAI sought more financial support from Microsoft, but Microsoft reconsidered this investment after Optimus was briefly dismissed.

For instance, regarding computing resource support, OpenAI hoped to obtain more computing resources and the right to use top-tier chips from Microsoft, but Microsoft said it had already provided everything possible and relaxed exclusivity restrictions.

For example, regarding model usage rights, there are disagreements between the two sides on the permissions given by OpenAI to Microsoft to use its models. Microsoft hopes to reduce dependence on OpenAI and secretly launched a project to develop AI models for Microsoft.

Furthermore, some Microsoft researchers complained that OpenAI was unwilling to share technical details, limiting their understanding and improvement of the models.

Such cases are too numerous to list.

Although they seem to be fighting side by side in the AI 2.0 wave, each has their own small calculations in mind.

Though both act out of self-interest, there is no right or wrong, but over time, there will inevitably be complaints among employees and between companies.

When to Reach AGI

The Wall Street Journal also pointed out that Microsoft is becoming increasingly hesitant about whether OpenAI can reach AGI.

We can feel why Microsoft's attitude has changed through OpenAI's actions over the past year:

One is that after Ilya left, people outside have long doubted how OpenAI would continue without a technical soul figure. Moreover, almost every month, there are new technical talents announcing their departure, either joining others, starting their own ventures, or returning to academia – this has become "news that is not news."

As a result, OpenAI's technological leadership has begun to be questioned.

The other is that from OpenAI's continuous live broadcasts last December, which did not unveil another model as stunning as the previous one (and the only one was later exposed for cheating to score), people began to doubt whether it was running out of steam.

Last year, DeepSeek's thunderous explosion clearly caught OpenAI off guard.

While the 4o model led a wave of "Studio Ghibli style" craze in image generation, this is not the kind of technical progress and product landing effect that those chasing AGI want to see.

However, Optimus remains confident - he publicly stated that he believed the OpenAI team could soon build such functionality.

But Microsoft doesn't think so.

In Microsoft's view, the current technology is far from standing at the door of AGI.

Last December, Nadella expressed his thoughts in an end-of-year interview:

Since ancient Greece to modern Silicon Valley, there is only one thing that leads to the decline of civilization and companies, and that is arrogance.

Nadella also rebutted this idea in a popular blog post in February, saying: "We call ourselves having reached some (AGI) milestones, but in my opinion, this is meaningless benchmark hacking."

As a result, Microsoft, which had never put all its eggs in one basket, was not without new measures.

Nadella's approach is clear: whether in terms of technological advancement or external sales, he prioritized Microsoft's internal Copilot.

Internal Competition Adds Uncertainty

A more obvious point is that Nadella has set his sights on Mustafa Suleyma, one of Google DeepMind's three co-founders, and brought him under his wing.

Specifically, without OpenAI's knowledge, Microsoft spent $650 million to acquire Suleyma and his startup Inflection's colleagues.

Insiders revealed that after joining, Suleyma began working on building a large language model aimed at countering the most advanced technology publicly released by OpenAI at the time, GPT-4.

Although the project didn't go smoothly at first (manual dog head):

An early training result showed that building a model comparable to OpenAI was much more difficult than expected, forcing Microsoft to extend its reliance on OpenAI.

But it didn't stop Suleyma from having a distinct personal style, such as during a meeting about sharing intellectual property, when he went on a tirade against OpenAI's lawyers in front of OpenAI executives (then CTO Mira).

Although Suleyma hasn't come out publicly to say anything, it's not hard to notice that Microsoft is trying in various ways to reduce its dependence on OpenAI.

Once Intimate Partners Pursuing AGI Together

Currently, Nadella and Optimus's regular contact mainly takes place through weekly fixed phone calls.

But it wasn't always like this! The Wall Street Journal revealed:

During the period when the relationship was closest, Nadella sent Optimus five or six text messages a day, and Optimus would reply similarly.

Such situations were not uncommon throughout most of the six years they knew each other.

Yes, the契机for Microsoft and OpenAI to partner, aside from Microsoft's massive bets on the AI field and看好the then young Optimus, might also be closely related to the revelation between Nadella and Optimus.

In the summer of 2018, at an annual conference in Idaho, the two met by chance in the stairwell and briefly talked for five minutes, and from that day on, they kept in touch.

A year after that encounter, Microsoft invested $1 billion in OpenAI.

This investment gave Microsoft exclusive access to OpenAI's technology, and Microsoft became OpenAI's exclusive cloud service provider.

Perhaps no one thought that by today, Microsoft has provided billions of dollars in support to OpenAI.

Also, no one thought that when Ilya dropped the PDF bomb, leading to Optimus's ousting from OpenAI, Nadella very quickly came out to strongly support him.

Let's take a brief look back!

A month before Optimus was dismissed, the soul figure Ilya prepared two PDFs, one about Optimus and one about Brockman, and sent them to the other independent directors on the board, triggering the subsequent OpenAI tsunami.

(Indeed, whether Chinese or foreign, the moment for gossip must involve PDFs, doge)

At that time, the gossips outside didn't know what had happened, only knowing that Optimus was suddenly dismissed.

But Nadella quickly posted a tweet, openly taking sides:

We hope to continue our cooperation with OpenAI and hope that Optimus and Brockman can continue to play leadership roles at OpenAI.

The implication is very clear, meaning Microsoft still values and trusts Optimus-led OpenAI.

What Other "Hidden Clues" Point to Relationship Deterioration?

But today, Nadella and Microsoft may become stumbling blocks for Optimus to push OpenAI towards becoming a non-profit organization.

How so? Everyone knows that at the end of last December, OpenAI suddenly released a statement on its website, announcing that it would separate from the structure of "non-profit leading profit-making company" and establish a new for-profit public benefit corporation registered in Delaware.

However, if the restructuring is not achieved by the end of this year, OpenAI may lose hundreds of billions of dollars.

But Microsoft can block OpenAI's efforts to restructure into an independent profitable company, although various signs suggest that Microsoft currently has no intention of doing so.

But Microsoft hasn't been idle to express its stance~

In January this year, when Optimus and SoftBank's Masayoshi Son opened the Stargate and planned to invest $500 billion in building AI infrastructure, Nadella didn't show up, and Microsoft remained silent.

Looking at the other side, OpenAI's intentions are also quite clear.

Perhaps some people don't know that OpenAI's board can trigger a clause in the cooperation contract with Microsoft, preventing Microsoft from accessing its most advanced technologies.

It was revealed that over the past year, OpenAI's senior management has raised the possibility of doing so.

And this "shaky Silicon Valley marriage" has also been disrupted by others, such as Apple, whose AI progress has been unsatisfactory.

Last summer, Apple planned to serve as an observer on OpenAI's board to strengthen cooperation in the artificial intelligence field.

Due to regulatory pressure, this plan ultimately failed to materialize.

Despite this, Apple's cooperative relationship with OpenAI continues, and the two parties maintain close ties through other means, such as OpenAI regularly holding meetings with partners like Microsoft and Apple.

One More Thing

Just this month, there were reports that Microsoft is "slowing down or pausing" some AI data center projects.

However, Noelle Walsh, president of Microsoft's Cloud Computing Business, said that although Microsoft may strategically adjust its plans, investments will be allocated based on business priorities and customer needs.

In uncertain economic conditions, weaker-than-expected AI demand, and the trend of low-cost large models, this tech giant has no choice but to reassess its infrastructure needs.

Analysts said these changes are related to Microsoft's business partner OpenAI:

OpenAI prioritizes developing more advanced artificial intelligence systems, which require large amounts of computing resources to train data, while "Microsoft may not be heading in the same direction."

Reference links:

[1] https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/sam-altman-satya-nadella-rift-307cb7f5

[2] https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai-ai-jealousy/

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Quantum Bit AI | Toutiao

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7499706581534310912/

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