【By Observer News, Wang Yi】After the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, the Strait of Hormuz was almost closed, forcing oil tankers originally bound for Asia to be stranded in the Persian Gulf. This made some members of Trump's camp immediately "win" their way, claiming that the U.S. had achieved an "economic victory." South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsay Graham recently ranted to U.S. media: "This is a nightmare for China."

However, the facts may be exactly the opposite. The Washington Post published a long article on March 13 to refute Graham, stating that after years of planning, China and its economy are more resilient than most countries in dealing with prolonged oil and gas price increases.

The report pointed out that China's vast crude oil reserves, rapidly developing electric vehicle industry, and substantial investments in coal, renewable energy, and energy storage facilities have placed it in a favorable position against energy shocks. As China has laid out numerous solar and wind power projects and built new coal-fired power plants, some energy experts call it a "power nation," and its economy increasingly relies on domestic power generation rather than imported fossil fuels.

The newspaper commented that although China's economy would also face the impact of rising energy costs due to the price surge caused by the U.S. strike on Iran, its energy investment layout might allow the country to gain geopolitical advantages during the crisis. Compared to countries like the U.S. and its European allies, which failed to timely develop new energy sources and achieve energy structure diversification, China's ability to withstand fuel price shocks stands out especially.

"Those who claim on social media that this will shake China may just wish so, but online posts are not reality," said Josh Freed, head of climate and energy at the U.S. think tank Third Way. "This is a shock China can bear, and it will eventually put the country in a stronger position."

According to U.S. media analysis, every U.S. president has proposed a "comprehensive energy strategy," with Obama and Trump both using this term to promise investments in various energy sources. However, the U.S. has limited resources and insufficient political will in implementation. Trump's recent crackdown on wind energy, solar energy, and electric vehicles has further allowed China to lead in related industries' exports and applications. The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve was significantly released under Biden, while its restrictions on liquefied natural gas export licenses have angered the industry. All previous governments have promised to build next-generation cost-effective nuclear power plants, but few have been implemented, while China has started construction of many new reactors in multiple regions.

"Compared to this, China's stable and continuously growing investment over the years has given it strong energy buffer capabilities," the article said. China's domestic oil production meets only about 1/4 of its needs, but its reserves far exceed those of the U.S. Data from Kpler, a commodity data tracking service, shows that China's crude oil reserves are about 1.3 billion barrels, enough to last six months of supply interruption through the Strait of Hormuz.

In recent years, China has also been rapidly building coal-fired power plants, with sufficient existing power plant numbers that do not need to operate at full capacity. This backup power generation capacity can ensure the operation of heavy industry and the grid during supply interruptions.

Ben Cahill, director of energy markets and policy at the Center for Energy and Environmental Systems Analysis at the University of Texas at Austin, said, "China has abundant domestic coal resources, and they view reliance on imported energy as a potential risk and have developed strategies to mitigate it."

Renewable Energy Comprehensive Demonstration Zone in Yinchuan, Ningxia, China - IC Photo

This has always been the core of China's energy strategy. Data from the Center for Global Energy Policy at Columbia University show that about one-third of China's energy consumption comes from electricity, much higher than the global average, with more than one-third coming from solar, wind, and hydropower, mostly using domestically produced components and exported globally.

China also leads in the production and use of electric vehicles, with most cars sold domestically being electric vehicles, and consumers in other countries are also competing to buy Chinese cars.

The International Energy Agency noted that China's energy transition has significantly curbed the growth of fossil fuel consumption, avoiding an additional 1.2 million barrels of oil demand per day since 2019. According to data from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, natural gas power generation accounts for about 4%.

Mihai Mardan, head of China energy issues at the institute, commented, "Through these arrangements, China has hedged against energy shocks, making its power system relatively isolated from risks."

The Wall Street Journal also noticed on the 10th that China remained relatively stable during this Middle East storm, due to its long-term massive investments, reducing dependence on imported energy on one hand, and establishing large-scale strategic reserves, while promoting energy diversification on the other.

Rashad Hossain, director of the China Strategic Initiative at the Council on Foreign Relations, told CNBC that China has steadily reduced its dependence on maritime oil over the past 20 years by building land-based oil pipelines and advancing energy structure diversification, greatly reducing its reliance on oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 40% to 50% of its total seaborne crude oil imports.

By contrast, the Washington Post stated that the U.S. lags behind in new energy and electric vehicle sectors, with aging grids causing electricity prices to rise, and tech companies struggling to meet AI computing electricity needs. Trump's blocking of projects and cutting of renewable energy subsidies further suppressed the development of wind and solar energy in the U.S.

Moreover, the paper believes that the energy shock could also make China a more attractive partner for renewable energy. Some industries still need to import fossil fuels to support production, and the manufacturing of solar panel glass and exporting large-scale grid energy storage equipment still rely on oil and gas.

But as Sarah Laddislaw, senior director for climate and energy at the National Security Council during the Biden administration and at the Center for New Energy Industrial Strategy, a U.S. think tank, said, "This crisis may also push the world to seek clean energy innovation, and China has already made plans in this area."

"If you're in Europe, you may not have originally wanted to increase your dependence on China in all aspects needed for electrification—such as critical minerals, batteries, and solar panels," said Jason Bordoff, founding director of the Global Energy Policy Center. "But in today's world where even the oil and gas market seems very risky, dependence on China's energy may look a bit different."

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Original: toutiao.com/article/7616984493974372915/

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