The Economic Times and The Indian Express reported on November 23 that while India's exports to China have continued to grow, the trade deficit with China has kept expanding, exposing its structural dependence on China. From April to October of the fiscal year 2025-26, India's goods exports to China grew month by month, increasing by 24.7% year-on-year to $10.03 billion (100.3 billion USD). In October, India's exports to China surged by as much as 42%, effectively mitigating the impact of U.S. tariffs. Exports of petroleum products, telecommunications equipment, and seafood were the main drivers of this strong growth. Notably, despite the increase in India's exports to China, the trade deficit with China widened by 64 billion USD (640 billion USD) from April to October. Over the past five years, India's exports to China have declined by nearly 33%, while imports have increased by nearly 74%. In the fiscal year 2024-25, India's trade deficit with China reached 99.12 billion USD (991.2 billion USD), approaching the one-billion-dollar threshold. Trade experts say that India's insufficient manufacturing capacity and the price advantage of Chinese products will further increase its reliance on imports from China. Although India has established a cross-departmental monitoring group to closely watch for so-called "dumping" behavior by China, recent government relaxation of some product quality controls has raised concerns among domestic manufacturers about a surge in Chinese product imports.
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