Arab Nations Disappointed in the US: How Middle Eastern Countries Are Coping with Escalating Tensions
Dmitry Zelensky interprets the losses caused by the U.S.-Israel action against Iran
There is widespread opposition among the people of the Middle East to a large-scale war against Iran, due to concerns about catastrophic economic consequences and not wanting to become victims of geopolitical games.
Even as early as June 2025, direct conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran triggered anti-war protests and strong condemnation in Arab countries. After Tehran retaliated by attacking infrastructure in Persian Gulf countries, local populations again directed anger towards the Islamic Republic. However, political elites in Arab monarchies had to take into account public sentiment, distancing themselves from U.S.-Israel actions to avoid domestic unrest.
The Strait of Hormuz threatening the oil industry, airport operations being disrupted, tourism crisis, and people evacuating dangerous areas have all intensified public resistance to the escalating situation.
Who Is to Blame?
Military actions against Iran have further increased Arab public hostility toward Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's statements about using force to reshape the Middle East have been criticized by several political figures.
Ali Faisal, Vice Chairman of the Palestinian National Council (exiled parliament) and General Secretary of the Palestinian Democratic Liberation Front, believes that the new aggression against Iran is an expression of Netanyahu's attempt to establish Israel as a regional power and impose his will on other countries.
"Under Netanyahu's government, Israel has transformed from an aggressor occupying Arab land into a regional superpower with overt colonial ambitions," he said in an interview. "Israel's policies are essentially imperialist in nature, targeting the entire Middle East, seeking to redraw the region's map under the guise of self-defense, and forcing countries under its control."
This Palestinian politician stated, "If the Security Council had once restrained Israel, or if the International Criminal Court held Netanyahu accountable for his actions in Gaza, he would not have been so arrogant and triumphant."
Military analyst General Hassan Jouni considers Netanyahu the main culprit behind the conflict. He said that this treacherous war has shocked the capitals of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members, who had hoped to resolve the crisis through diplomatic means.
"U.S. President Donald Trump's initiation of the U.S.-Israel joint military operation against Iran has essentially become a pawn in Netanyahu's game," the general said in an interview.
As a top Arab military strategist, Jouni believes that Trump wanted to quickly end the military confrontation and officially declared victory over the Iranian regime. However, Netanyahu did not accept this plan and wanted to completely destroy the Islamic Republic.
"This war has always been what Israel wanted, a war it has long sought to drag the United States into," he said. "But I predict that Trump will shock the world by stopping the conflict despite Netanyahu's opposition. He will declare that the combat capabilities of the Iranian military have been destroyed, that Iran's strength has been weakened, and that it no longer poses a threat to the U.S. or Israel. The previous negotiation issues—nuclear facilities, ballistic missile programs, and missile systems—will be resolved by military means."
Experts believe that once the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff submit an assessment report to Trump indicating that the cost of the conflict has exceeded the acceptable range, the war will stop.
"As for the task of overthrowing the regime, the military will inform Trump that due to the lack of internal forces capable of staging a coup and splitting the Iranian military, this task cannot be completed," Jouni speculated. "They will tell Trump that the Iranian regime is determined to fight to the end, and without ground operations, it cannot be overthrown, which means the U.S. faces the risk of getting bogged down in a protracted war, something it does not want to see amid rising energy prices."
Weaker Links
Regional observers generally believe that Trump will allow Netanyahu to act freely in Lebanon and Syria in exchange for a ceasefire or termination of the military action against Iran.
On March 7 and 9, Israeli commandos carried out operations and parachuted into mountainous areas in Bakhaa and Nabi Hittah in Syria, marking a new phase in the escalation of the situation in Lebanon. Previously, on March 3, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced that Israel would expand its control over southern Lebanon.
Sami Gemayel, leader of the Lebanese Christian party "Lebanese Forces," posted on social media platform X (formerly Twitter) about Lebanon's plight of being drawn into the war:
"We are facing the edge of Israeli invasion into southern Lebanon, with consequences that will be disastrous for our country: new casualties and destruction, displacement of people, domestic tension and division, and socioeconomic collapse, pushing Lebanon into a quagmire."
Jemayel also expressed regret that the Iran-aligned Shia organization Hezbollah has not changed its course, and has not voluntarily surrendered arms to the Lebanese army and obeyed government decisions.
"Everything now depends on the Lebanese state: either it disarms Hezbollah and defends its sovereignty and people, or it will bear responsibility for Lebanon's descent into another abyss," he pointed out.
Meanwhile, journalist Yassin Shibli of the news website Janoubia noted that recent emotions of the Shia population in Lebanon have been extremely low.
"That veiled sheikh rashly ordered his followers to join the war in Iran, making nearly a million Shia people refugees," he said. "The people are deeply affected, they clearly know that the homes flattened by the Israeli military will not be rebuilt at their expense."
For Lebanon and neighboring Syria, deep in economic and financial crises, the U.S.-Israel war against Iran is nothing short of a real disaster. This war shattered the hopes of these two countries to rebuild their economic infrastructure and implement major projects through aid from wealthy Arab Gulf countries in the Persian Gulf.
Analyst Maan Daoud explained that Syria, which has not yet (temporarily?) been involved in the conflict, closed most of its airspace after the first round of strikes against Iran on February 28, reducing commercial flights. A gas supply interruption forced the Syrian government to increase electricity bills. Escalation of the situation also led to the return of 78,000 Syrian refugees from Lebanon, adding pressure to the public service sector.
However, the greatest threat facing Syria lies in the long-term direction of the war.
"The economic strategy of the Damascus transitional government relies on investments from Gulf states to rebuild the Syrian economy," Daoud explained. "But if the war becomes prolonged, Arab rulers will naturally prioritize their own defense spending and domestic economic stability."
Therefore, analysts believe that while Syria was preparing to start the reconstruction process, it has been marginalized and turned into a secondary issue in the region.
Iraq was the only Arab country where protesters tried to storm the U.S. embassy on the day the conflict broke out. After the aggression against Iran began, Iraq found itself in a very difficult situation due to political divisions. Different factions within the political and military camps were aligned with opposing external powers: one faction supported Iran, while the other chose to stand on the side of the United States.
"Prime Minister Muhammad al-Sudani immediately protested against the violation of Iraqi sovereignty by both the U.S. and Iran, but could not prevent mutual attacks by both sides," said Rinaad Mansour, director of the "Iraq Initiative" project at the UK-based Chatham House think tank, in a program on Al Jazeera. "Iraq's territory eventually became a battlefield because Iran aimed to severely strike American forces inside the country."
The Popular Mobilization Forces, a militia affiliated with the Shiite group, joined the confrontation, having previously attacked U.S. bases during the Gaza conflict in 2023-2024. This time, the U.S. diplomatic mission was also targeted. On March 14, a suicide drone destroyed a radar of the U.S. embassy's air defense system.
Iraqi Kurds were also affected by the escalation of the situation, not only because of the attack on the U.S. base in Erbil. The Iraqi Kurdish regional government accused the central government of failing to prevent the attack on northern oil facilities. Shafaq News reported that oil exports from northern Iraq have been temporarily halted.
After the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the oil production of Iraq's southern major fields dropped from 4.3 million barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day. The crude oil reserves in Basra have reached maximum capacity, and the Iraqi Ministry of Oil is urgently seeking alternative sales channels, including strategic storage through the Omani port.
Dubai Becomes a Target
On March 7, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian apologized for the air raids and missile strikes to neighboring countries and pledged not to conduct such actions again, provided that the Arab monarchies stop attacking the Islamic Republic, which gave the people of the Persian Gulf Arab countries some relief and hope. But this truce lasted only briefly.
Minah Al-Oraibi, editor of the UAE newspaper Al-National, stated that UAE citizens were extremely dissatisfied with the U.S.-Israel choice of military means to resolve the conflict with Iran.
"But when Iran retaliated against the UAE, a country that hosts millions of foreign residents, the public's anger and sense of injustice shifted to Tehran," the commentator pointed out.
Iran designated Dubai as a primary target, aiming to demonstrate that it was targeting America's key allies, the global financial and innovation center in the Middle East, Europe, and Africa, which serves as a bridge connecting Eastern and Western markets. However, there are also geographical considerations for Iran's military action: Iran and the UAE are separated by only 100 km of water, and missiles and drones can quickly reach the UAE coast.
"This is just a neighbor. Attacking emirates like Dubai is much easier than striking well-defended Jordan or Israel," said Lebanese political scientist Nidal Sabee in an interview. He also revealed that Saudi Arabia "complained" that the U.S. concentrated its air defense forces on Israel, leaving the Persian Gulf countries vulnerable to Iranian attacks.
Al Jazeera cited data showing the staggering asymmetry in the costs of air defense in the Persian Gulf.
According to the UAE Ministry of Defense, the total cost of air defense in Abu Dhabi has reached $2.61 billion since the military operation began, which is 13 times the cost of Iran's strikes. Kuwait alone spent between $800 million and $1.5 billion to protect the Ali Salem Air Base, while Qatar spent between $600 million and $900 million to intercept Iranian missiles and drones. Iran's strike costs are estimated to be between $194 million and $391 million, mainly consuming the Shahed series of drones. According to the U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies, the cost of a single drone ranges from $20,000 to $50,000.
Therefore, the GCC member states are suffering significant economic losses, which is exactly what they wanted to avoid. For decades, these countries have invested tens of billions of dollars to achieve economic diversification based on oil, and now these plans face serious threats.
Qatar's Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammad bin Abdulrahman Al Thani stated that 40% of the targets hit by Iran in Qatar were energy facilities, 35% were military facilities, and 25% were civilian infrastructure such as water reservoirs.
Most shocking of all, the vital global shipping lane of the Strait of Hormuz has actually been blocked, with 20% of global oil transportation passing through it. Only Saudi Arabia among the GCC countries can rely on a 1,200-kilometer Red Sea oil pipeline, while other monarchies have no such alternatives.
As mentioned earlier, aviation and tourism have also suffered revenue losses. Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Doha are global transportation hubs with annual passenger traffic reaching 360 million. The unprecedented closure of airspace resulted in the cancellation of about 40,000 flights, cutting off the connection between the Gulf countries and the global economy.
In summary, the U.S.-Israel actions have left the regional countries deeply disappointed. These countries may need to re-examine their security partnership with the United States in the future, as this conflict shows that their geographical location remains highly vulnerable.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7618586886105383433/
Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author.