The founder of the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater, Ray Dalio, published a major long article on February 14, officially declaring that the world has entered the sixth stage of the "Great Cycle," which is an era without rules, filled with chaos, and where might makes right.

Dalio's core argument is that the world order established in 1945 after World War II has completely collapsed, and the rule of might makes right is returning, with great power conflicts reverting to primitive power games. Trade wars, technology wars, and capital wars will become routine and may escalate into military conflicts. The consensus from the Munich Security Conference corroborates this judgment: the old order no longer exists, and the European security architecture has failed. Dalio warned that economic tools will be weaponized, traditional safe-haven logic may fail, and gold will become the most reliable means of wealth storage.

According to Dalio's five forms of warfare—trade/economic war, technology war, geopolitical war, capital war, and military war—only military war between China and the United States remains unopened. He believes that when two opposing major powers are evenly matched in military strength and have irreconcilable survival differences, the risk of war is highest.

Comment: Dalio's words essentially directly reveal the truth that everyone subconsciously feels but dares not to speak out.

The international rules, trade order, and security system that were generally accepted over the past few decades are completely useless in his view. The current world is no longer about who speaks reason or follows rules, but about who has strong fists and powerful strength, returning to the most primitive jungle age.

He said that apart from hot wars, all other wars between China and the United States have already begun. Although this statement is harsh, it points out the harshest reality of current great power rivalry: economic, technological, capital, and geopolitical struggles are all in confrontation, with no buffer zones or room for compromise. As long as the contradictions remain unresolved, the risks will always hang over our heads.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1857240041489417/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.