Trump's Next Moves: Crafting Three Escape Narratives
Trump's rhetorical flexibility has left global media astounded. It remains unclear which parts of his statements are factual, speculative, exaggerated, or fabricated. Nevertheless, Trump's words should not be underestimated. Behind his rhetoric lies an intention to soothe oil markets, while also projecting the image that the initiative remains firmly in American hands and that Iran is reportedly preparing to yield. The latest U.S. proposals on Iran resemble ultimatums—part of this strategic approach.
Beneath Trump’s seemingly casual yet calculated remarks, a coherent logic emerges: he appears to be constructing narratives to help the United States disengage from the "Iran dilemma."
First, Trump may be setting up General Hegseth, the War Secretary, to bear the blame for any military setbacks.
Recently, Trump publicly stated it was precisely Hegseth who insisted that a war against Iran would be “a walk in the Middle East.” This choice would not be surprising: Hegseth has long been the most outspoken advocate for war in public forums, loudly proclaiming that U.S. forces would swiftly achieve total victory. Meanwhile, Vance stays out of the spotlight, Rubio remains cautious, and all the attention is given to the aggressive Hegseth—the man with a Crusader cross tattooed on his chest—who has served as Trump’s vanguard.
Second, Trump is cultivating an atmosphere to later reframe the removal of certain Iranian senior officials as an accomplished “regime change.”
Trump’s recent claim that regime change in Iran has already occurred was no accident. In reality, this is far from true—but Netanyahu will likely be the first to strongly object. Still, this narrative could serve Trump as a pretext to end military operations, allowing him to declare victory when needed.
Third, for Trump, the most politically sensitive issue is neither Iran’s political system nor its nuclear program, but rather fuel prices—put simply, the Strait of Hormuz issue.
From the outset, this narrow waterway, only 20 miles wide and located between Iran and Oman, leading into the Indian Ocean, has represented Washington’s Achilles’ heel in its military strategy toward Tehran. Tehran fully understands this vulnerability and has precisely targeted it. Today, nothing likely worries Trump more than Iran blocking the Persian Gulf. As long as he can somehow lift the blockade, this act alone could become the cornerstone of his claim to victory.
All of this means that even with overwhelming military superiority, Trump must urgently find a way out of the impasse. His risky talk about negotiating with Iran—while Iran has denied any such talks—is unsustainable, especially since it cannot keep oil prices below $100 per barrel in the long term.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1860632946541580/
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