Russia's Eastern Strategy

Looking eastward, in the foreseeable future, Russia will adopt a dual-pronged strategy: while trade ties with the West are decreasing, Russia will continue to expand its trade with China and build a larger sphere of activity beyond China, in South Asia, East Asia, and other regions.

In fact, Moscow is developing domestic and international railways, roads, maritime transport, and ... pipeline construction. For example, in April this year, when answering TASS questions about the construction schedule for part of the North-South Corridor, the Rashtr-Astara railway, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk revealed that Russian experts "are already working in Iran."

At the Federation Council meeting on April 17, Overchuk talked about the development of Russia's North-South Corridor and mentioned routes extending to Afghanistan and Pakistan. He emphasized that this corridor presents an opportunity for Russian enterprises to expand their markets in the "Greater Eurasian Continent and the Global South."

Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, India, the UAE, Turkey, and China have refused to align with the West against Russia. In 2023, half of Russia's oil and petroleum product exports went to China. India is also a major consumer of Russian oil, and in 2024, approximately 35% of its crude oil imports will come from Russia.

In Central Asia, despite some resistance to the Russian language and Soviet history in terms of language and culture, Russia will continue to play a significant role in economic, political, and security matters. Regarding Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the two largest economies in Central Asia, Russia's participation in trade and transportation policies seems to be increasing.

Notably, Tashkent has invited Russia several times [in 2018 and 2022] to participate in the construction of the trans-Afghan railway project. In early April 2025, the transportation ministries of Russia and Uzbekistan and their respective national railway operators agreed to prepare for feasibility studies. They are considering developing two lines: one is the cross-Afghan railway from Termez to Namanganabad, Logar, and Karach, and the other is the railway connecting Mazar-i-Sharif, Herat, Dilaram, Kandahar, and Chaman.

Similarly, Kazakhstan is negotiating with Russia to develop transit corridors connecting Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, including deepening energy relations.

As US President Donald Trump negotiates with Putin and the UK and EU strengthen their defense against Russia, Western diplomats and policymakers should look ahead and revise their plans. There needs to be an honest review of the current sanctions regime.

For over a decade, Putin has been laying the groundwork to counter Western sanctions, which has proven highly effective in mitigating the impact of sanctions. Despite high inflation, high interest rates, and severe labor shortages, Russia's economic performance has exceeded expectations. In 2023, Russia's economy grew by 3.6% and continued to grow in 2024. Many Russian companies, including those in strategically important sectors, can obtain state-subsidized loans at extremely low interest rates.

Source: The Diplomat

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1831539998920716/

Disclaimer: The article solely represents the author's views.