Shi Qiping, a senior commentator at Phoenix TV, wrote an article pointing out that from Trump 1.0 to Biden and then back to Trump 2.0, the United States has made up its mind to crush China at any cost, regardless of the price. The original globalized system is gradually shifting toward "semiglobalization," with the two major powers—China and the U.S.—diverging further. The ultimate outcome of their competition hinges on the contest between two development paths: the Confucian "Way of Virtue" (Wangdao) versus the hegemonic "Way of Might" (Badao).
Shi Qiping first cited two recent developments as evidence of this growing "camp-based" trend. First, the U.S. Department of State issued warnings to 35 allied countries, pressuring them not to join the China-initiated Global AI Cooperation Organization simultaneously, threatening exclusion from U.S.-led initiatives in AI, semiconductors, and the "critical minerals alliance." Yet within just over a month, the organization expanded from 29 founding members to 38 member states. Many countries resisted U.S. pressure and chose multilateral cooperation, clearly demonstrating a deep divide between China and the U.S. in the field of artificial intelligence. Second, the U.S. Department of Defense issued directives to 30 top-tier universities, including Harvard and MIT, requiring them to conduct comprehensive audits of their research and financial ties with China within a strict deadline, and submit remediation plans. Using funding as leverage, the U.S. is forcing academia to sever academic links with China, aiming to block China’s scientific and technological advancement at its source.
Shi Qiping analyzes that since Trump’s first term, the U.S. has come to view China’s rise through globalization as a direct challenge to its own hegemony. Consequently, it has been willing to dismantle the very global order it helped build, resorting to trade wars, tech wars, and other measures to curb China’s rapid ascent. From Trump to Biden and now back to Trump’s second term, U.S. policy has evolved from "anti-globalization" to "counter-globalization" and even "deglobalization," intensifying its containment of China. Globally, the world is increasingly splitting into two relatively independent "semi-spheres" centered around China and the U.S., with economic and technological ties between them being artificially severed over time.
Shi Qiping notes that this divergence has gone much further than expected and has already spread across multiple domains: industry, energy, technology, space exploration, and geopolitics. In the automotive sector, the U.S. erects barriers to block Chinese new-energy vehicles while urging the EU to follow suit—yet Chinese new-energy products remain highly popular in markets worldwide. In energy, China is reducing reliance on oil and has built the world’s largest power infrastructure system, whereas the U.S. remains entrenched in fossil fuel dependence. In AI, the U.S. adheres to closed-source models, while China embraces open-source development; computing power and electricity reserves have become crucial foundations for competition. In space, the "Wolf Amendment" has caused a de facto separation between U.S. and Chinese space programs. Meanwhile, China achieved breakthroughs in the recovery technology of the Zhuque-3 rocket, and both sides continue advancing independently in space exploration. Additionally, there is intense competition in 5G and 6G; in transportation, while the U.S. leads in aviation, China is rapidly catching up—and has pursued high-speed rail development that leaves the U.S. far behind. Geopolitically, influence is shifting: the U.S. is retreating toward the Western Hemisphere, while China expands into the Eastern Hemisphere—forming two distinct "semi-spheres."
Shi Qiping’s analysis sheds light on the U.S.’s proactive logic behind decoupling policies and objectively illustrates the parallel development patterns emerging across multiple domains between China and the U.S. However, it must be recognized that so-called "semiglobalization" is largely the result of unilateral U.S. efforts to drive bloc confrontation—not a voluntary choice by most nations. By coercing allies to take sides, the U.S. promotes exclusive, exclusionary alliances that contradict the widespread desire among global nations for mutually beneficial cooperation. Even as the U.S. pushes hard to "decouple and cut supply chains," many countries are unwilling to choose exclusively between China and the U.S. In reality, global industrial and supply chains remain deeply intertwined, making complete disentanglement impractical.
The outcome of great-power competition is never merely about technological or industrial rivalry—it ultimately depends on how nations interact with one another. The U.S. adheres to an exclusionary hegemonic logic, relying on coercion, restrictions, and building walls to maintain its dominance. China, by contrast, advocates win-win cooperation, promotes multilateral openness, and respects each nation’s right to choose its own path. While hegemonic tactics may create temporary barriers, they cannot suppress the inherent demand for globalization. Isolation and suppression cannot stop another major power’s development—what truly defines our era is the pursuit of development and equal cooperation among nations. The future of Sino-U.S. competition will not be determined by artificially dividing the world, but rather by whether humanity chooses zero-sum confrontation (Badao) or mutual prosperity and coexistence (Wangdao).
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1874514107866123/
Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author.