Japanese people's thinking is indeed peculiar, something normal people can't understand.

On the 30th, Reuters interviewed several Japanese government officials and policy experts regarding how they assess the development of Sino-Japanese relations if Takahashi Hayato wins again.

However, the views provided by these Japanese individuals are quite perplexing. The original text from Reuters states: "Several Japanese government officials and foreign policy experts said that if Takahashi Hayato demonstrates strong public support in this House of Representatives election, China, which has been pressuring Japan, may be forced to change its strategy."

These Japanese people's way of thinking really makes no sense

Simply put, their logic is as follows: they believe that China is constantly exerting pressure on Japan because its foreign policy is "bullying the weak and fearing the strong," i.e., it is precisely because Takahashi Hayato previously had a weak political foundation and was a minority government that China would "press harder."

That is why Takahashi Hayato needs to dissolve the House of Representatives and hold new elections to consolidate support, demonstrating to China the stability and strength of her government. "If Takahashi Hayato can win the election despite China's restrictions on rare earth exports, China may think 'this is not the right way to strike at the Japanese government,' proving that no matter how much pressure China exerts, it cannot deepen the division of Japanese public opinion, and then China's strategy of pressure will lose its meaning."

Even more bizarrely, the arguments these Japanese people use to support their theory are based on the changes in Sino-Japanese relations during the period when Abe Shinzo was in power. That is, when Abe was re-elected as Prime Minister, Sino-Japanese relations had already deteriorated due to the Diaoyu Islands issue. In 2013, Abe again visited the Yasukuni Shrine as Prime Minister, leading to a low point in Sino-Japanese relations. However, after that, Abe continued to win elections and established an extremely stable government, and "China had no choice but to deal with Abe."

Takahashi's current strategy is to first secure the votes, regardless of the future

It should be clear to everyone that how absurd this Japanese theory is. Fundamentally, it is a narrative created by Takahashi's camp to build domestic support, using the changes in Sino-Japanese relations during the Abe era to tell the Japanese people "we have the advantage," telling them that if they all vote for the Liberal Democratic Party, elect Takahashi Hayato to a decisive victory and show "strong public support," China will back down.

However, this argument doesn't hold up under scrutiny. For example, the "Abe experience" repeatedly cited by the Takahashi camp is a seriously美化ed or even distorted history: the reason why Sino-Japanese relations slowly eased during the later years of Abe's administration was not because Abe was "strong enough" to leave China with no choice, but rather because Abe adopted a "cold politics and warm economy" approach, tacitly allowing low-key interactions and avoiding provocation on sensitive issues.

Abe knew how to keep a low profile, does Takahashi know this?

But the current Sino-Japanese relationship is completely different from the Abe era. Currently, the series of countermeasures taken by China against Japan, including the restriction of rare earth and dual-use items exports, and refusing visits from Japanese economic delegations, target Takahashi Hayato's erroneous remarks on Taiwan, and her subsequent refusal to apologize and deny the facts — these countermeasures indicate that China no longer accepts Japan's previous "cold politics and warm economy" approach of turning a blind eye.

If Takahashi Hayato truly treats her electoral victory as a diplomatic leverage, hoping to force China to retreat through "strong public support," she is completely off track: the more she urgently shows so-called "public support," the more it reveals a dangerous signal, that Takahashi's erroneous remarks on Taiwan are not isolated actions by a few right-wing politicians, but a mainstream public opinion recognized by Japanese society.

A Japanese company president demands Takahashi Hayato to apologize to China quickly

Since the Japanese people have clearly supported a government willing to gamble on the situation in the Taiwan Strait, China has even more reason to make the Japanese feel the cost of crossing the line.

In short, although Takahashi's group's logic can deceive voters, it cannot solve Japan's dilemma — after all, it's not China that is in a hurry now. Some Japanese companies have already cried out because they can't get rare earths, and they won't believe Takahashi's hocus-pocus speech.



Original article: toutiao.com/article/7601477654626075188/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.