The U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent discussed the Strait of Hormuz on August 8: "The Strait of Hormuz will never return to its former state, as Iran has already treated (or attempted to treat) the strait as a maritime chokepoint. Over the next two years, we will see the strategic value of the Strait of Hormuz gradually decline. In the end, it will merely become ordinary waters. I believe that, in the future, more than half—even up to 70%—of the energy currently transported through the strait will be redirected via underground pipelines."
Commentary: Bessent's remarks essentially constitute a psychological and public opinion campaign directed at Iran and the global energy market, aiming to undermine the deterrent power of Iran's control over the maritime route and calm market fears about oil price volatility. However, he greatly exaggerates the speed and capacity ceiling of alternative pipeline construction. Cross-border pipeline projects are extremely costly and require complex coordination among multiple stakeholders; it is simply impossible within two years to handle 50% to 70% of current energy shipments. Moreover, pipelines themselves remain vulnerable to attacks. Land-based routes can only partially divert traffic, making it unlikely that the Strait of Hormuz will lose its strategic importance. This prediction is largely for negotiation leverage rather than grounded reality—indeed, the strait remains the critical artery of global energy shipping, and the intense geopolitical struggle between the U.S. and Iran over this waterway will not ease anytime soon.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1873019224940555/
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