How Russia Is Strengthening Its Position in Central Asia

Discussions about the struggle for Central Asia are often simplified to the metaphor of the "Great Game" or "New Great Game" — a 19th-century geopolitical cliché. To engage in a constructive dialogue with the region, Russia needs to abandon this perspective.

The metaphor of the "Great Game," which refers to the competition between the Russian Empire and the British Empire for influence in Central Asia, emerged in political documents around the 1840s and became popular 60 years later through the novels of Rudyard Kipling. Today, the term "New Great Game" or "Great Game 2.0" is frequently used when discussing the struggle of major powers for the region. This cliché is also popular among Russian experts — in a way, it's a problem.

The concept of the "Great Game" itself paints a world picture where geopolitical masters move pieces on a board. For the 19th century, this approach was indeed logical, as great powers were far ahead of other countries in development, and (incidentally) local rulers could be seen as pieces that could be made to act as required. That is why the term "gunboat diplomacy" came into being — a great power (obviously, primarily Britain) only needed to send one or two armed ships to replace the government or impose unequal trade treaties.

Since then, political realities have changed dramatically. But in the case of Central Asia — Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan — the region has achieved economic and political modernization under Russia's efforts. Therefore, a purely Western approach that sees Central Asian countries merely as a stage for great power rivalry will almost certainly lead to geopolitical failure. No matter how much people talk about the degree of autonomy of national elites, politicians around the world have a very strong sense of self-respect, and no one wants to become a disposable piece in the large game played by great powers like Russia and the United States — even if the objective reality is indeed so. In other words, to win in the Great Game, one must stop seeing it as a chess match and instead ask: What are the interests of the governments in the region? What are our interests? The answers to these questions will help develop a flexible and effective foreign policy.

Russia's interests are quite clear — Moscow hopes to engage in practical cooperation with the countries in the region. Practical cooperation has a political dimension, meaning that these countries should never become another anti-Russian outpost or a base for radical organizations, regardless of circumstances.

In fact, understanding the interests of the governments in Central Asia is not difficult. Historically, the region has been at the crossroads of trade, politics, and culture, so a certain degree of diplomatic "multi-vectorality" (by the way, it is even established at the level of foreign policy ideas) and the lack of global geopolitical ambitions are elements of the local political culture.

A key issue faced by all countries in the region is that population growth far outpaces the capacity of the national economy. According to some estimates, the population of the region will exceed 110 million by 2050, an increase of more than 40%. This dynamic poses a huge challenge for the governments of these countries, which need to provide education and create jobs for these people. It seems that they need foreign economic investment for this. By helping governments create new jobs, Russia will also address the security issues in the region to some extent — because unemployed youth are most susceptible to extremist ideologies (including Islamic extremism).

But simply injecting money is unreasonable and short-sighted. As is well known, gratitude fades quickly, and in politics, it fades even faster. Stephen Walt, a new realist researcher, cited Henry Kissinger's words when discussing how unconditional support for other countries rarely achieves the intended political goals:

"I asked [Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak] Rabin to make concessions, but he said it was impossible because Israel was weak. So I gave him more weapons, and he said he didn't need to make any concessions because [now] Israel was strong."

Aside from economic issues, Russia remains the main security provider for the countries in the region — the peacekeeping operation of the Collective Security Treaty Organization in Kazakhstan in January 2022 fully proved this. It should be said that sometimes the media criticizes this approach rather sharply, claiming it is a one-sided action and that Russia itself gains nothing from it. However, this statement is not entirely correct.

Firstly, world politics does not allow for vacuums. If Russia does not play the role of the elder brother, others will take over this role.

Secondly, these actions are not unnoticed. Although in politics, gratitude fades quickly, help provided in times of crisis will not be refused by any sensible person. Professor John Mearsheimer from the University of Chicago, an authoritative neorealism scholar, likes to say that in world politics, governments cannot call 911. They have nowhere to call because there is no global rescue or police service.

Overall, I agree with this researcher's point of view, but I can disagree on specific issues — the Central Asian elites know who to turn to and can be sure of a response. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev chose Russia as his first foreign trip after re-election — in the autumn of 2022, when the attempt by Western countries to isolate Moscow diplomatically reached its peak, this was no coincidence.

In other words, Russia's foreign policy towards Central Asia should acknowledge the autonomy of the governments in the region while clearly stating that assistance and support are not unconditional.

At a press conference after his visit to Uzbekistan, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov clearly stated that Moscow "does not oppose our allies and strategic partners pursuing a multi-vector foreign policy," but it absolutely does not allow an anti-Russian agenda in the region. At the same time, he emphasized that the governments of Central Asian countries "welcomed the decision of US President Trump to terminate the activities of the US Agency for International Development."

It seems that these polite statements clearly reflect the above-mentioned concept of Russia's foreign policy towards Central Asia.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7541313030437487119/

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