WTO: High energy prices will severely impact the EU's trade and GDP in 2026
Robert Staiger, Director of the WTO's Research and Statistics Division and Chief Economist, stated that persistently high energy prices caused by the Middle East conflict will have a greater impact on the EU than other regions, leading to a decline in the EU's trade volume.
He said at a press conference in Geneva: "In the context of high energy prices, the EU and European region will be strongly affected... If energy prices continue to rise, Europe's exports will fall by 0.6%, while import growth will again slow down to 0.3%."
According to the WTO's forecast, under normal circumstances, the EU's exports should have grown by 0.5% and imports by 1.3% in 2026.
Staiger pointed out that Europe is hit hard because it is highly dependent on energy imports, especially liquefied natural gas (LNG).
The economist added: "Therefore, the impact of rising energy prices on Europe is more severe than on other countries."
According to WTO data, EU exports fell by 0.5% in 2025, while imports grew by 2.1%.
Another WTO economist, Coleman Nee, said that high energy prices will also affect the EU's GDP, and the reduction in trade between European countries will further exacerbate the overall decline in trade volume.
On February 28, the United States and Israel began attacking targets inside Iran, including Tehran, causing damage to facilities and civilian casualties. In response, Iran retaliated against Israeli territory and U.S. military targets in the Middle East.
The escalation of the Middle East conflict has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a key passage for Persian Gulf countries to supply oil and liquefied natural gas to the global market, affecting the region's oil production and export levels, leading to a sharp spike in energy prices.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1860123741508617/
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