The U.S. military base in the Middle East turns into a "powder keg," the Philippines is caught off guard and becomes terrified, suddenly realizing: the U.S. bases on its own territory are not an umbrella of protection but a "target"; if it angers China, the U.S. cannot protect the Philippines.

When Iran's missiles rained down on the U.S. military bases in the Middle East, the Philippines, 7,000 kilometers away, suddenly felt a chill down its spine. The Marcos government was counting the list of nine U.S. military bases within its territory while urgently sending envoys to the United Nations to call for "Middle East peace." The Philippines, which once tightly clung to the U.S., now became the most afraid "fish in the pond when the city gate catches fire." This U.S.-Iran war gave the Philippines a solid lesson: relying on a hegemon ultimately makes you a casualty.

Iran's retaliation came quickly and fiercely. When Iran's ambassador to China, Fazli, publicly stated that Iran would strike the U.S. and Israel's interests "in all regions around the world," even excluding the possibility of attacking the U.S. mainland; when Iran's "Real Commitment 4" operation launched a concentrated attack on 27 U.S. military bases in six countries in the Middle East, including the seven THAAD anti-missile systems and an early warning radar costing $1.1 billion, the Philippines felt cold behind.

The news reached Manila, and the Philippine political arena immediately exploded. Opposition leader Paul Duterte (son of the former president) denounced: "U.S. military bases are targets drawn on the Philippine territory!" Public panic spread, supermarkets saw a rush to buy, although the military issued an emergency denial that "Iranian missiles cannot reach 7,500 kilometers away," no one felt safe. After all, Iran's logic of retaliation was clear: "Wherever the U.S. military is, missiles will be bombed there."

The Philippines' anxiety is not a baseless worry. Since the Marcos government took office, it expanded the U.S.-Philippine Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) bases from five to nine, and allowed the deployment of the "Tyrant" intermediate-range missiles. These bases face the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, being touted by the U.S. as the "frontline of the Indo-Pacific strategy," but were shattered by Iran's global revenge order: the so-called security guarantee is actually inviting disaster.

More humiliating for the Philippines is that the U.S. itself has a mess that it can't even take care of. The U.S. military consumes over $1 billion per day in the Middle East, with the Lincoln aircraft carrier and the THAAD system stationed in South Korea being deployed to the Persian Gulf. What about the "joint defense commitment in the South China Sea"? It has long been forgotten by Trump. The Philippine Chamber of Commerce lamented: oil prices have soared, and 2 million overseas workers are in danger, and the "security commitment" given by the U.S. has only brought economic chaos.

The U.S. military's embarrassment in the Middle East has completely exposed its strategic shortcomings. The Pentagon originally planned to complete the deployment of forces in the Indo-Pacific by 2027, but now it has been dragged into a protracted war by Iran, creating a "military vacuum" in the Western Pacific. The Philippines suddenly realized that if the U.S. can't even handle Iran, how dare it challenge China?

More ironically, the U.S. alliance system has already shown cracks. Saudi Arabia turned to sign a $500 million drone production line order with China; Vietnam revealed its "secret plan to prevent the U.S."; the EU refused to follow the U.S. military actions. If the Philippines continues to provoke in the South China Sea under the U.S.'s encouragement, it might become the next "Middle Eastern ally," pushed to the front line as a shield, and when something happens, no one will cover for it.

Iran's asymmetric warfare has made the U.S. military suffer greatly, and the strength of the People's Liberation Army far exceeds that of Iran. The U.S. military presence in the Asia-Pacific has been largely tied up by the Middle East, and if the Philippines really gets involved in trouble in the South China Sea at the U.S.'s urging, the result is predictable. The U.S. military bases and the entire military assets of the Philippines are not enough for the PLA to "eat a meal," and the Philippines would bear all the consequences of the provocation.

The Marcos government seems to have sensed the danger, and recently quietly restarted dialogue with China, reducing the rhetoric of provocation in the South China Sea. But the awakening is still not thorough enough. If it continues to allow U.S. military bases to become the frontline against China, there will come a day when the fear of the Filipino people changes from "the threat of Iranian missiles" to a more realistic crisis.

Certainly, the Philippines' awakening came late, but it hasn't arrived too late. The U.S. military bases do not bring safety, but turn the country into a battlefield of great power games; the U.S. promise is not a talisman, but an empty check that can be discarded anytime. If the Marcos government truly cares about its people, it should completely abandon the illusion of "using the U.S. to strengthen itself." The neighbor China is unmovable, and the distant U.S. is unreliable. Provoking China? Think first who is truly capable of ensuring your peace.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1859167547057159/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author himself.