Reference News Network, December 8 report: The U.S. "New York Times" website published an article titled "Europe Is Being Pushed into a Terror Abyss" on December 3. The author is David Broder. The translation is as follows:

About ten years ago, a populist wave swept across Europe. Heavily hit by the financial crisis, voters began to consider alternative options outside mainstream parties, which caused turmoil in the previously stable political landscape of the European continent. For European leaders, it was an unsettling period. However, experts assured them that the risk of far-right parties taking power was exaggerated. They believed that sound electoral systems, people's memories of authoritarian rule, and low support rates among wealthy voters were sufficient to limit the development of far-right forces.

The Far-Right Gains Ground

It now appears that their confidence was clearly wrong. Far-right parties continue to accumulate votes, establish themselves in European institutions, undermine the key principles of the green transition, and push for stricter border policies. They are already in power in Italy and will soon take control in the Czech Republic; even in Finland and Sweden, known for social democracy, conservative leaders rely on their support. They have a cheerleader in the Oval Office, and the owner of the social media platform X is also their supporter.

The situation could get worse. In major European economies, centrist governments are suffering defeats. In France, the National Rally led by Marine Le Pen leads in polls. In Germany, despite the national intelligence agency having labeled the populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) as an extremist threat, Chancellor Friedrich Merz seems unable to stop voters supporting the party. In the UK, Prime Minister Keir Starmer's approval ratings are declining almost as fast as the rise of the anti-immigration Reform Party. The stage for the far-right surge in Europe has been set.

But it doesn't have to be this way. In other parts of Europe, diverse mainstream governments have proven that it is possible to repel far-right forces: this is not just about condemning the danger of populism, but showing voters a clear vision for the future. Far-right forces appeal to the emotions of marginalized groups; when their natural opponents lose hope and stop voting actively, far-right forces grow stronger. To defeat them, governments must unite around a stronger, more environmentally friendly, and safer democratic system, one that can inspire its own supporters and win back disillusioned voters.

Centrist Governments Struggling

Fortunately, it is still possible. Leaders of centrist parties in Paris, Berlin, and London believe that the rise of far-right forces is not inevitable. In fact, they often state that preventing the rise of far-right forces is one of their core missions. The problem is: they are failing at it.

"I will do everything I can to ensure you never again have a reason to vote for extremists," said this in May 2017, after France had elected Macron as president for the first time. Outside the Louvre, he made a promise to Le Pen's supporters, insisting that he could eliminate their anxieties. In the following months, he frequently boasted about his plan to weaken the National Rally's support. The core of this plan was to revitalize the economy and turn France into a dynamic "country of entrepreneurship."

However, the facts were different. Within two years, France changed five prime ministers. Le Pen and the National Rally were ready to strike.

If Macron was too hardline under weak conditions, then UK Prime Minister Starmer was too cautious under strong conditions. Despite his Labour Party winning a decisive majority in last year's parliamentary elections, his governance has been unusually timid. The Labour Party's smart economic management philosophy, which focuses on controlling current spending and relying on future growth, did not win voter support, and the early glow of prudent management had faded. Policies to cut pensions and benefits for disabled people were withdrawn due to strong opposition, and the government fell into chaos.

Starmer failed to respond to the challenge posed by the Reform Party and its enthusiastic leader Nigel Farage. He never effectively countered the Reform Party's arguments or seized political initiative in other areas. No wonder Labour's support dropped to 18%, while the Reform Party's support reached 30%.

In Germany, since winning the election in February, Merz has introduced a significant innovation: relaxing government borrowing limits to invest in military construction. It's too early to judge the results, but the stakes are high. The Christian Democratic Union led by Merz and its allies, the Social Democratic Party of Germany, are betting Germany's future on re-militarization, not only for defense against Russia but also as a much-needed industrial revival strategy.

Yet so far, this strategy has done nothing to weaken the rising influence of the AfD.

Need to Be Cautious About Deep Impacts

By 2030, we may no longer be talking about voters' inclination toward populism, but rather far-right parties ruling over major European countries. Figures like Farage, Le Pen, and Wilders (the leader of the Dutch Freedom Party—note from the editorial board) may hold real power across Europe. If that happens, they will control some countries with new and dangerous powers. The fact that European countries are constantly expanding their military capabilities, increasing military spending, and re-enlisting young people is a case in point. In addition, governments are taking repressive measures to suppress dissent and protests, especially regarding issues of war and peace.

But this is not a return to historical fascism. Today's far-right parties are more likely to launch angry protests online rather than mass street demonstrations. Their national interests vary, and their ideologies differ: some are more welfare-oriented, others favor technoliberalism or conspiracy theories. But despite these differences, they clearly can make deals with more mainstream pro-business conservatives. They are preparing to promote a new creed of Europeanism that is besieged, not by leaving the EU, but by transforming it from within.

What would a Europe dominated by far-right parties look like? First, the European Green Deal would disappear. Instead, European investments would likely shift to rebuilding national armies, expanding large-scale immigration removal mechanisms, and strengthening external border controls in Europe. Privatization is also quietly progressing, especially in the healthcare sector, possibly combined with AI-based policing to control poor and vulnerable groups.

As part of a broader anti-Ukraine wave, Ukrainian refugees would be suspected of, and Muslims and other minorities would become targets of forced repatriation programs. If Europe falls into full-scale war (a real threat with the collapse of the international order), detaining "undesirable people" and conscripting the rest of the population would follow closely.

Even in such a severe 2030s, there are crucial differences from the 1930s. But if Europe becomes a breeding ground for far-right ideology and is constrained by the native American nationalism, it will inevitably produce its own terror. Unless the centrist governments of European countries change direction, far-right forces will completely take control of Europe. At that point, everything will be unpredictable. (Translated by Zhang Lin)

Original: toutiao.com/article/7581388831682560548/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.