Trump refuses to negotiate, tears up Maduro's "letter of peace," and the US military is still amassing forces near Venezuela. Is this big war really unavoidable?

The U.S. Naval Academy News reported that the U.S. Navy destroyer "Stokdale" has joined two other destroyers, "Jason Dunham" and "Grafton," in the Panama port, and the number of U.S. Navy destroyers operating in the Caribbean region has officially reached three.

[The "Stokdale" has arrived in the Caribbean Sea]

The "Sampson" destroyer, which was originally carrying out missions along the East Pacific coast and did not cross the Panama Canal to join the main force, has returned to the mainland.

Aside from the three destroyers, including the "Stokdale," the U.S. Navy also has the amphibious assault ship "Iwo Jima," the amphibious dock landing ship "Lauderdale," the "San Antonio," the cruiser "Lake Erie," and the littoral combat ship "Minneapolis-Saint Paul," forming an amphibious readiness group, which is also active in the Caribbean Sea.

At this point, all eight surface ships deployed by the U.S. Navy in the Caribbean have been fully in place, and there may be one attack nuclear submarine operating somewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

At least 2,200 Marines from the U.S. Marine Corps' 22nd Expeditionary Force have also arrived in the Caribbean Sea with the "Iwo Jima" and other amphibious ships.

[The U.S. continues to reinforce its forces in the Caribbean Sea]

Along with nine warships and 2,200 marines, the U.S. has also sent 10 F-35B fighter jets to the Caribbean Sea to counter Venezuela's Su-30 and F-16 squadrons. Of these 10 F-35Bs, five have already arrived in Puerto Rico.

With the enhancement of frontline forces, the U.S. actions against Venezuela in the Caribbean Sea are becoming bolder, and several ships have been sunk by the U.S. as drug trafficking vessels belonging to Venezuelan drug cartels.

Facing pressure from the Trump administration, Venezuela is actively conducting military exercises and other actions to demonstrate its determination to resist U.S. aggression, while at the same time extending a olive branch.

Maduro once wrote a letter to Trump, stating his willingness to communicate with Trump's special envoy, but Trump did not accept this "letter of peace." Instead, he responded by saying, "Let's see what happens in Venezuela," implying that the U.S. would take more actions.

At present, Trump continues to exert pressure on Venezuela because he has not yet achieved his goals through military pressure.

[Trump has not yet achieved his goals through military pressure]

Additionally, Trump maintaining a large military presence in the Caribbean and continuing to apply pressure on Venezuela is relatively limited in relation to the U.S. claim of combating drug trafficking in Latin America. Trump chooses this reason to show his stance on drug control to the domestic public, but it is not the fundamental reason.

In fact, the primary objective of Trump's deployment of troops to the Caribbean Sea should be to gain control over Venezuela's energy resources.

Venezuela's oil reserves rank first globally. Even though the country's oil has poor quality, it does not prevent American energy companies from wanting to profit from oil extraction in Venezuela.

Moreover, if the United States can seize Venezuela's oil, combined with its own shale oil, Washington will have more say in international energy issues, enabling it to engage in a power struggle with OPEC over energy issues.

However, as long as the leaders in the Venezuelan political arena support nationalization, oppose handing over oil resources to American companies, and have a clear anti-American tendency, the Chávezists, the U.S. will find it difficult to achieve its goals.

[Venezuela has abundant oil resources]

Therefore, Trump never intended to sit down with the Maduro government for talks from the beginning. Instead, he planned to push for a "regime change" in Venezuela through a period of military pressure and possibly military strikes, ousting Maduro and other Chávezists and installing a compliant comprador regime.

Additionally, in recent years, the South American political scene has seen a clear shift to the left, with leftist leaders taking power in countries such as Brazil and Peru, leading to a decline in U.S. influence over Latin America. The U.S.' long-standing "Monroe Doctrine" is moving toward failure.

However, through diplomatic and economic means alone, the U.S. has been unable to effectively deter countries like Brazil. To use long-term military pressure on Venezuela as a warning to countries like Brazil and to restore its influence, became a choice for the U.S. to save the situation.

Yet, at this stage, the U.S. pressure measures have not yielded results. Not only has there been no unrest within Venezuela, but many Latin American countries have also clearly supported Venezuela.

Under these circumstances, the possibility of the U.S. launching a military strike on Venezuela is gradually increasing. The Venezuelan government has revealed that they have foiled a U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) plan for a "false flag operation" aimed at creating an excuse for pressuring Venezuela.

[President Maduro is unlikely to make more concessions]

On the other hand, although Maduro extended an olive branch to Trump, he is unlikely to make any concessions on national security and sovereignty issues. If the U.S. indeed launches a military strike on Venezuela, the Venezuelan military will inevitably take all possible measures to retaliate.

In short, the Trump administration's refusal of Maduro's proposal for dialogue and its insistence on using military intimidation to promote the return of the "Monroe Doctrine" aims directly at Venezuela's vast oil resources and the reshaping of regional dominance.

However, the accumulation of military strength does not equate to strategic success. The resistance will of Venezuela, the growing autonomy of Latin American countries, and the potential global consequences of a high-cost military conflict all constitute heavy shackles that the White House must weigh carefully.

The changing tides in the Caribbean not only concern the fate of Venezuela, but also serve as another test of whether the U.S. can dominate modern international relations with an old-style hegemonic logic.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7553231144033010214/

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