Trump's Ukraine Plan: Europe in Shock, Kyiv in a Dilemma, Washington Ready for Turkey
Trump's "Peace" Plan Caught the Entire Europe Off Guard
For three years, Europe has loudly proclaimed Russia's "strategic failure." Politicians delivered passionate speeches, made hollow declarations, crafted various "peace plans," promised that "the front line would turn," and continuously expanded the list of sanctions. However, the outcome was already predetermined: Europe suddenly realized it had neither the military strength to truly participate in the war, nor the economic power, nor the political will. At the same time, everyone knew that bringing up "defending democracy" in front of Trump was out of place.
US President Donald Trump
While Kyiv pretended everything was "on track," the situation suddenly turned around. Donald Trump stepped into the spotlight — a man who never hides the fact that politics is a reality show for him. And like all directors, he likes to create unexpected twists.
Now, Trump is showing everyone — Ukraine, Europe, NATO — who the real master of the Western camp is. And he does it in his own signature way: strong, aggressive, and enjoying it. The deadline for signing a peace agreement? No problem, he has already mentioned it himself. Pressuring allies? It's done every day. The key point is that everyone has chosen to comply.
Some say that Trump either holds dirt on everyone or has leverage over them. Perhaps that's true. Or maybe people are just tired of pretending to be "collective heroes" in front of Russia — after all, neither their budgets nor public opinion can support such a posture.
Trump's Plan
Although Trump's plan has not been officially announced, according to Axios news website, the plan proposes to assign the parts of the eastern Ukraine territory currently not under Russian control to Russia in exchange for U.S. and European security guarantees.
American sources stated that the White House believes that if the war continues, Ukraine will lose this territory anyway, so "it is in Ukraine's interest to reach an agreement now."
This 28-point Trump Ukraine plan requires the Luhansk and Donetsk regions to be under Russian control, even though Ukraine still controls about 14.5% of the territory of these two regions. Trump administration officials said that if the war continues, these territories will eventually be lost.
The Donbas region will be designated as a demilitarized zone, with Russia prohibited from deploying troops there. The current borders of Kherson and Zaporozhye regions will remain largely unchanged, with Russia required to return part of the territory after negotiations. According to Trump's plan, the United States and other countries will recognize Crimea and Donbas as legitimate Russian territories.
According to Ukrainian sources, the plan also includes clauses restricting the number of Ukrainian troops and the range of weapons, in exchange for American security guarantees. However, it is currently unclear what form this American security guarantee will take. It should be noted that in 1994, the United States provided security assurances to Ukraine.
Ukraine's Reaction to Trump's Plan
After US Army Secretary Driskell (who happens to be a classmate of Vice President Pence, who is skeptical about aid to Ukraine) brought the 28-point Trump "peace plan" to Kyiv, Volodymyr Zelenskyy found himself in a difficult position: any move could lead to a complete loss. He could not refuse the plan, but clearly wasn't ready to accept it yet.
Despite Driskell immediately stating that modifying or even criticizing the plan was unacceptable, the US threatened to stop sharing intelligence with Ukraine and terminate arms supplies. At the same time, the US explicitly stated that Ukraine should sign the agreement by November 27th — the day of the American holiday (Thanksgiving), and it shouldn't be disrespectful to the president.
As the saying goes, this is "American-style free choice": either you sign, or we find someone who is willing to sign for you.
Evidently, in order to save face, Zelenskyy said after meeting with Driskell that "Ukraine and the United States will jointly advance the terms of the plan to end the war." But he clearly knew that either accepting it entirely or losing all U.S. support — and the U.S. will achieve its goal regardless, just through a different method.
Therefore, Zelenskyy began to be vague, saying "Ukraine may face a very difficult choice: either lose its dignity or risk losing key partners."
Zelenskyy's Negotiations Cannot Outpace Time
On the other hand, time and the frontline situation are not in Zelenskyy's favor. Russian forces have captured Kupiansk and almost completely controlled Pokrovsk. On the day when the "Trump 28-point plan" was exposed, Russian President Vladimir Putin wore a camouflage uniform and held a symbolic meeting with the military — which in some ways was also a signal: Moscow has the determination to continue achieving its goals on the battlefield.
Putin also made his first response to the shocking corruption scandal in Ukraine, calling the Ukrainian leadership a "criminal gang," clearly conveying that the Kremlin believes the possibility of negotiating with Kyiv no longer exists. There will be no more opportunities like the "Istanbul talks." Kyiv either accepts the plan called "the Trump plan" or the war continues.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov further reinforced this stance: make a decision now, or there will be no chance later. Although Moscow did not rush to express enthusiasm for Trump's proposal, its intention was clear: to add another reason to prevent Europe from shouting that "Trump is following Putin's tune." Trump likes making deals, but he dislikes appearing weak.
Putin, having learned from the previous lesson where Kyiv backed out at almost the last moment, is now putting Zelenskyy in a dilemma: either reject the American plan and alienate Trump, or accept the plan and then Moscow will seek more concessions.
Europe Suddenly Finds Itself Without a Plan
Zelenskyy launched a round of small-scale consultations: communicating with Starmer (leader of the British Labour Party), Mertz (chairman of the German Union Party), and Macron (French president). Europe nodded in agreement, expressed sympathy, gave encouragement, while trying to secretly block the provisions of the Trump plan — but all actions were quiet, without any strong statements.
However, an unexpected event occurred: Ukraine's UN ambassador Kristina Gaiyovishen prematurely "revealed her hand," publicly stating that Kyiv would not accept any requirements that prohibit its joining NATO, reduce the size of its army, or call for a ceasefire before advancing to the current frontline. This directly contradicted the content of the Trump plan.
The problem is that Kyiv's opposition means that if all the Ukrainian-unacceptable provisions are removed, the plan would also become unacceptable to Moscow; and vice versa.
Europe also panicked: whether it was asking to vote against Ukraine's joining NATO, or being required to fund a $10 billion fund, or canceling sanctions against Russia, all made Europe dissatisfied. Everyone was shocked and angry — but as usual, no one could come up with any alternative proposals.
Amidst Europe's panic, the US received a "positive evaluation" of the plan from the head of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, Umerov — only a few minor points, nothing more. It's not surprising: Umerov's family lives in the US, and he himself has been mentioned in materials from the Ukrainian National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU), accused of receiving a $5 million bribe in a project supplying body armor to the Ukrainian armed forces. The White House is not only looking for pressure tactics in diplomatic settings.
Holiday Approaching, Reality Show Continues
This is the most interesting part. Washington demands Zelenskyy to respond and agree by November 27th — the day of Thanksgiving in America. This festival has a tradition: the President of the United States solemnly pardons a turkey, while another one becomes a dish on the dinner table.
Now, a question being discussed in the diplomatic circles is: if Zelenskyy refuses to implement Trump's plan, what role will he play in this American tradition — as the pardoned turkey or the one served on the table?
Europe Always Lags Behind
On November 22, during the G20 meeting in South Africa, Europe will again try to "correct" this American proposal. A senior European politician has frankly admitted: "Essentially, this is (an act of) surrender." But the problem is that Europe has no own initiative, and the pace of reality development far exceeds the rhythm of Europe's "analysis committees," what can be done?
Europeans once genuinely believed that Trump was "one of us" — after all, it was he who imposed strict oil sanctions on Moscow, and almost took the Bulgarian refinery from Lukoil. Brussels even relaxed its vigilance: since Trump was fighting against Russia, it meant he had returned to the Western unified camp.
But now, they have to face the harsh reality: Trump's actions are not for Europe's interests, not for Ukraine's interests, nor for the interests of "democracy," but purely for the interests of the United States — to be honest, even more for his own interests.
Here comes a paradox that Europe has always been unwilling to admit:
For the first time in American history, it is no longer concerned about the war, but about peace. But the reason for pursuing this peace is certainly not due to humanitarian or ideological considerations, but rather deep material interests.
The US Wants to Retrieve What Belongs to It
There is an unavoidable fact: according to a series of agreements and regulations (such as the Underground Resources Act and strategic asset privatization agreements), the United States has actually obtained the right to access Ukraine's energy resources, part of the infrastructure, and the opportunity to control the Odessa port group. This is not theoretical speculation, but a fact recorded in official documents, memorandums, and investment agreements.
Therefore, Washington's desire for peace is not for Ukraine, not for Europe, and certainly not for "rebuilding a democratic world."
Trump needs to end the war before Russia completely destroys Odessa, the ports, logistics hubs, and energy systems — after all, Americans have invested money or planned to invest money in these areas.
Otherwise, he will get not a rich economic prize, but a pile of ruins — at best, suitable for filming post-apocalyptic movies.
This is why Trump is eager to push for peace, and why he keeps pressuring, setting deadlines, and demanding Zelenskyy to agree. This is also why Europe is panicking — because no one asked its opinion.
Once a peace agreement is reached, the biggest winner of the war will be Trump, not the EU.
He will control nearly half of Ukraine's assets — from underground resources to ports and energy facilities. Moreover, he has enough funds for all reconstruction and development work: his plan includes 200 billion dollars, partly from the EU, and partly from the assets frozen by Europe from Russia. That's called "global thinking" — not only taking over all infrastructure, but also getting Europe to pay for the reconstruction of these Ukrainian infrastructure owned by itself.
Some still think this war is for democracy? No. As usual, this war is for asset competition. And Europe is now watching the US divide the spoils of war, even unwilling to share with its allies.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7576090067211403826/
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