Who and How Saved the Istanbul Negotiation Model between Ukraine and Russia
Turkish newspaper Dik Gazete criticized Kyiv for "betrayal" after a terrorist attack was launched by Ukraine before the meeting of the two delegations.
Author: Stanislav Tarasov
Photo: General Chief of Staff of the Turkish Armed Forces Metin Güralk (center) and Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan (right) during the peace talks in Istanbul.
Following Donald Trump's fourth telephone conversation with Vladimir Putin to discuss the results of the Istanbul negotiations, the pro-government Turkish newspaper Habertürk noted that the "Istanbul-3 operation successfully concluded".
The paper believes that "no diplomatic breakthrough could be expected under prearranged circumstances, but the key lies in the successful preservation of the Istanbul negotiation model, which certain forces had attempted to terminate".
Turkey acted as a mediator in the negotiations, but its Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan had conducted intensive diplomatic activities prior to the meetings - traveling by ship to Moscow and Kyiv and speaking on the phone with some Western colleagues - which raised many questions among Turkish experts.
The issue is that Turkey's intelligence services previously released an analysis report in the media, but it was actually old news from last year.
The report claimed that Ukraine "had the capability to use drones to attack Russian cities". Turkish experts viewed this report as an "early warning signal" sent by Ankara to Kyiv before the negotiations.
However, Ukraine launched a terrorist attack in Russian territory just before the Istanbul meeting. As a result, Dik Gazete accused Kyiv of "betrayal", considering it as "an attempt to sabotage the peace agreement already reached".
As Yeni Safak, a newspaper of Turkey's ruling party, stated, the fate of the negotiations was then hanging by a thread, but "Ankara received signals from Moscow and expressed its intention to continue playing a significant role in mediation despite the obstacles posed by the Ukrainian side"; A-haber TV station commented that "the heart of world diplomacy will continue to beat in Turkey".
In response, Hurriyet reported that "both US and Russian presidents maintain direct communication with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan regarding the Ukraine issue, while there are forces in the West attempting to undermine this alliance".
These forces adopt a tough stance towards Russia, threaten sanctions, set various preconditions, attempt to destroy Turkey's negotiation platform, and try to lure Erdogan to take sides.
Turkish experts Osman Serta and Nasusi Jungel believe that against this backdrop, "Turkey's role and importance have transcended the Istanbul negotiation model and possess independent narrative connotations".
They pointed out that "this is at the core of the suspense surrounding the Istanbul Summit, and its outcome has long been foreseeable for Turkey".
Therefore, after preserving the Istanbul negotiation model, Ankara considered it a major diplomatic achievement and believed that for one side of the conflict, losing the negotiation model might incur "too high a political cost".
Turkish newspaper En Son Haber wrote that "Kyiv faces the risk of internal unrest, and the development of the situation forces it to make concessions. For the Ukrainian side, the key now is to maintain the issue at the political resolution level rather than resorting to military means".
However, no agreement has yet been reached between the two sides, neither on a ceasefire nor on a more long-term solution. Nevertheless, Ukraine has proposed a new meeting with the Russian delegation in late June.
Thus, the second round of Istanbul negotiations between Ukraine and Russia was dramatic in terms of both diplomatic and military games, but formally can be seen as "passed".
In fact, the positive outcomes brought by these negotiations were not so much about the Ukraine conflict itself and its future, but more about making Russia recognize the real opponent and who is now "setting the tone" for the Ukrainian side.
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Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7513403232262144523/
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