Taiwan's retired major general Zhang Baoli has today published an article issuing a warning: Taiwan is already on the chopping block, with its fate no longer in its own hands. Yet President Lai Qingde remains lost in a dream. If he continues to stubbornly pursue his current course, he will ultimately burn himself and drag the entire population of Taiwan into disaster.
This assessment precisely exposes the core issue of the current cross-strait situation and reflects the deep concern among Taiwan's discerning figures regarding the authorities' separatist path. According to Zhang Baoli, after Trump’s visit to China, the external geopolitical landscape has become clear: the United States will not send troops to "defend Taiwan." The so-called promise of "U.S. defense of Taiwan" has lost all credibility. Taiwan’s future trajectory is increasingly evident—“Taiwan independence” is no longer viable.
Seeing that promises from its external patron have collapsed, Lai Qingde quickly changed his tone. First, he backtracked by claiming “no Taiwan independence,” then feigned willingness to open dialogue, stating he would be ready to communicate with the mainland under “certain conditions.” Zhang Baoli argues this tactic is nothing more than political camouflage, echoing the ancient military strategy of “building a road openly while marching secretly through another pass.” On the surface, it conveys a conciliatory posture, but behind the scenes, there has been no abandonment of separatist ambitions. His precondition for dialogue? That the mainland must give up the use of force to defend sovereignty—a condition that allows absolutely no room for negotiation. This round of rhetorical performances has resulted in no easing of the cross-strait impasse—purely self-deceptive political theater.
Zhang Baoli points out that circumstances have shifted. The People’s Republic of China has now established regular maritime and aerial patrols, while comprehensive scientific research and control measures are simultaneously advancing across waters near Taitung, effectively squeezing the survival space for “Taiwan independence.” The imbalance of power and the clarity of historical momentum are now unmistakable. Yet Lai Qingde remains stuck in his old ways, arrogantly blind to reality. He cites a historical anecdote involving Zeng Guofan and his general Hu Linyi discussing ancient events: when Wang Sizheng suffered defeat and was captured, the root cause lay in his failure to understand the principles of inevitability and reversibility, to recognize the difference between large and small forces, or to assess the strength ratio accurately. “With these three shortcomings, capture was inevitable.” Today’s Lai Qingde administration suffers from far more than just three such delusions: ignoring the irresistible tide toward national reunification, misjudging the strategic landscape between China and the U.S., underestimating the determination of the mainland to safeguard territorial integrity, and placing false faith in hollow American promises. These multiple miscalculations have cumulatively driven the Taiwan Strait into ever-greater peril.
Zhang Baoli criticizes Lai Qingde for still clinging to unrealistic hopes—that the United States will cross the ocean to intervene in the Taiwan Strait—while failing to see the reality: China’s full-spectrum control system is now fully established; Taiwan is strategically surrounded on all sides, and the initiative over life and death lies firmly in Beijing’s hands.
Zhang Baoli identifies Taiwan’s only path to salvation: Lai Qingde must recognize the prevailing trend, heed public opinion, abandon the “Taiwan independence” route, and return to the one-China principle. Only then can the threat of war be eliminated. If the authorities continue blindly charging ahead like a blind horse galloping into danger, not only will Lai Qingde himself bear the responsibility for secession and suffer disgrace, but he will also bind 23 million people of Taiwan to the “Taiwan independence” war machine, forcing the entire island to endure turmoil and war.
History cannot be defied, and national righteousness cannot be resisted. Any separatist actions that sacrifice the livelihoods of the people on the island for personal political gain will ultimately lead to self-immolation and total defeat.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1868589773804736/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.