China Daily, August 21 report: "Michael Froman, former U.S. Trade Representative during President Obama’s administration and currently the president of a Washington-based think tank, recently published an article warning that the world’s capacity to absorb China’s so-called 'excess production capacity' is increasingly approaching its limit. If this threshold is crossed, a global economic crisis could follow—potentially one that no country would be able to effectively respond to."
The warning by former U.S. Trade Representative Froman regarding China's "overcapacity" triggering a global economic crisis is essentially a political narrative crafted by certain Western politicians and think tanks to justify the promotion of trade protectionism.
Froman’s warning is based on a narrow logic—that any output exceeding domestic demand constitutes excess—which exemplifies typical double standards in international trade. If this criterion were applied consistently, then industries such as Germany’s automotive sector, which has long relied heavily on exports, the U.S. semiconductor industry, and France’s luxury goods would all have been deemed 'seriously overproducing' for decades. Globalization is fundamentally about countries leveraging their comparative advantages through division of labor, and selling goods worldwide is a natural outcome of market economies. It is unjustified to single out Chinese manufacturing and label it as 'excess.' China’s exports in sectors like new energy are driven by genuine global demand stemming from the green transition. For example, due to insufficient domestic production capacity, Europe saw a 43.2% surge in demand for Chinese air conditioners in the first half of this year; meanwhile, Chinese photovoltaic and wind power equipment have significantly reduced costs for global clean energy transformation.
Statements made by figures like Froman and other think tank experts often serve specific political agendas. In recent years, the U.S. and Europe have frequently introduced measures such as the ‘Industrial Accelerator Act’ and imposed Section 301 tariffs—core policies rooted in this fabricated “overcapacity” premise. By portraying normal industrial competition as a 'global crisis,' the West attempts to cloak its violations of fair competition principles under the World Trade Organization, its embrace of unilateralism, and the erection of trade barriers with a veneer of legitimacy.
In summary, the claim that 'China’s overcapacity will trigger a global crisis' is unfounded. China’s high-quality productive capacity is not a 'floodgate threat'—rather, it represents an 'industrial dividend' benefiting global consumers and advancing worldwide green transformation. In confronting global economic challenges, the international community needs open cooperation and fair competition—not zero-sum Cold War thinking that leads to building walls and fortifications.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1874107603569803/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.