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Trump once again plays the old trick of "tariff intimidation", and the EU directly tears off the curtain of pretense!
On July 12 local time, Trump suddenly said, "Imposing a 30% tariff on EU goods," and tried to use "postponing until August 1st" as a negotiation bait.
But three EU officials immediately exposed it: "This act is too clumsy, everyone can see what color your underwear is!"
Currently, the old Trump is like a "street hooligan," first showing fists and then negotiating. However, the EU has long figured out his tactics, even American companies couldn't help but complain: "Boss, can we change the script?"
The old script of "tariff threat" has already bored the audience!
Old Trump thinks he's playing the "three moves" skillfully: ① Bomb throwing to create momentum: Suddenly saying "impose a 30% tariff", which instantly scares the US stock market, with the Dow dropping 1.2% in one day, and the European stock auto sector falling by 5%—as if recalling the "terror memory" of the steel and aluminum tariffs in 2018.
② Leaving a door open for negotiation: Claiming "postpone until August 1st", implying "if you negotiate well, I will be lenient," packaging himself as a "kind negotiator".
③ Revisiting old grievances to shift blame: Grabbing the $150 billion trade deficit between the US and EU to make a big deal, blaming the EU entirely, and never mentioning the US's own "addiction to consumption".
But looking back at history: The 2018 steel and aluminum tariffs ended with a "quota agreement", and the 2024 car tariff threat was also pushed back by the EU.
Now he's doing the same again, even American farmers are upset: "The soybeans just went up in price, now you're using us as a pawn again!"
The old script of "tariff threats" has already bored the audience!
Face the "old actor", the EU has already prepared a "countermeasure gift bag", each move hits the US weak points:
① The countermeasure list is ready: Cutting the lifeblood of US agriculture!
The EU directly released a 21 billion euro countermeasure list, targeting US soybeans, Boeing planes, and Texas oil—these are all the "lifeblood" of Trump's vote bank! They also said, "If you escalate to 30%, we will expand to 95 billion, and even add tariffs to Hollywood movies!"
② Joining allies to fight back: Rallying allies to attack together!
The EU is forming an "anti-tariff alliance" with the UK and Canada, while secretly communicating with China and ASEAN—"Want to isolate the EU? First ask the global supply chain if they agree!"
After all, the EU is the largest trading partner for 140 countries; if they unite to retaliate, the US can't withstand it.
③ Solid internal unity: All 27 countries unitedly push back!
Germany and France lead, with 27 countries unified in their stance: "We won't give up our core interests in cars and agriculture!" The German Automobile Association said, "If the US imposes tariffs, BMW will move its new factory to Hungary, making American workers unemployed!"
Airbus is even more ruthless, directly accelerating the expansion of its Tianjin factory in China, reducing dependence on the US—You cut my supply chain, I'll dismantle your employment base!
Markets first "defect": The US stock market fell, and the industrial chain collectively moved away
As soon as Trump's threat came out, the financial and industrial sectors directly "voted with their feet":
① Financial markets: The US stock market plummeted, while the European stock market rose!
The Dow fell 0.63%, Apple and General Motors were also affected.
② Industrial chain: Companies voted with their feet, accelerating to escape the US!
BMW moved its new factory from the US to Hungary to avoid tariffs.
Airbus expanded its Tianjin factory in China, cutting its reliance on the US.
Even American farmers were panicked: "Soybeans just increased in price, and when the EU's countermeasure list came out, they would crash again!"
Game theory dilemma: Trump's "fat" vs the EU's "muscle"
Trump thought that the "tariff stick" could scare people, but actually had many flaws:
The weaknesses of the United States:
1. Inflation rebound: A 30% tariff would cause European luxury cars and brands to rise in price, directly angering the American middle class (last year's inflation was just brought down to 3%, this move is equivalent to "self-destruction").
2. Corporate backlash: Executives of General Motors and Apple complained: "If the supply chain is broken, we will die faster than the EU!"
After all, 30% of the parts of American cars depend on the EU, and 40% of chips of tech companies come from Europe.
Voter crisis: In the 2025 mid-term election, the rust belt voters rely on European automakers. BMW and Mercedes employed over 100,000 workers in the US. If tariffs are imposed, they will lose votes!
The EU's confidence:
Trade diversification: Export to the US accounts for only 15%, and trade with China and ASEAN is more active. Last year, exports to ASEAN increased by 12%.
Technical retaliation: Airbus vs. Boeing, Ningde Era's European factories vs. American batteries, the EU has solid products in hand.
Rule weapons: Holding up the WTO flag, jointly suing 12 countries, making the US suffer from "illegal tariffs"—if you dare to break the rules, the whole world will join to punish you!
Conclusion: Threats as Underwear, Negotiation is the Right Way
Trump's 30% tariff threat is like the Emperor's New Clothes—everyone can see he is bluffing, yet he insists on pretending to be tough.
From the EU's firm countermeasures, to the market's vote with their feet, and the collective backlash of American companies, all prove that the era of unilateral bullying has long passed!
Next, we'll see what happens on August 1st: Will Trump back down and cancel the threat, or stubbornly impose tariffs?
If he really does, the EU's countermeasure list is not a joke—then American consumers will have to pay for the price hikes, and Trump's votes will also "plummet".
In the end, there are no winners in a trade war. Using threats as a negotiation tactic is a play that becomes a "pair of underwear" that everyone laughs at—can't cover up the ugliness, and it's also embarrassing!
Welcome to comment below: Do you think Trump can scare the EU this time?
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7526188390594495028/
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