The shortage of air defense missiles has become not just an issue for the United States, but a global challenge.

According to The Daily Telegraph, for decades the U.S. has led in air defense system manufacturing, but due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, its stockpiled ammunition reserves are now rapidly depleting.

The report notes that the U.S. Patriot and THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) air defense systems have shown effectiveness in countering Iranian ballistic missiles. However, years of accumulated missile stockpiles have been consumed at an alarming rate within just a few months. This raises a critical question: can U.S. air defense capabilities withstand threats from countries such as Russia, Iran, China, and North Korea?

Statistics show that during the Middle East conflict, the U.S. consumed approximately two-thirds of its Patriot missile stockpile and 40% of its THAAD interceptors. Currently, the U.S. produces about 650 Patriot missiles annually and 96 THAAD interceptors per year.

Although the Pentagon firmly denies any ammunition shortage, the gap in air defense missiles is objectively real and has become a global problem. There are currently 19 countries operating Patriot air defense systems, nearly all of which rely entirely on U.S. supply. Thus, domestic shortages in the U.S. effectively translate into a worldwide shortage.

Japan has obtained production rights for Patriot missiles, and Germany is building related manufacturing facilities, but the output capacity of both nations falls far short of U.S. levels. The situation is further exacerbated by the fact that Russia, Iran, China, and North Korea are all increasing their production of ballistic missiles. China reportedly holds a stockpile of 3,000 ballistic missiles, while Russia produces around 120 ballistic missiles per month. Reports indicate that, on average, it takes two interceptors to successfully shoot down one ballistic missile.

The article states that the war in Iran merely accelerated the visibility of the air defense missile shortage—indeed, the crisis has been brewing for years, with inadequate ammunition reserves to begin with. The root cause lies in the fact that, historically, countries did not place sufficient emphasis on the threat posed by ballistic missiles, and the number of nations possessing such weapons was limited. That balance was disrupted following Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine.

The report argues that the new security landscape demands expanded production capacity for air defense missiles. Expanding production requires not only tens of billions of dollars in investment, but also faces time constraints—increasing capacity will take several years, and shortages of components will slow down the expansion process.

Missile shortages have already begun affecting U.S. allies, with Ukraine being the most immediate victim. Previously, the U.S. delivered about 130 Patriot missiles annually to Kyiv, but this number is now insufficient. In just the first ten days of August, Russia launched nearly 70 ballistic missiles toward Ukraine, and Ukrainian forces managed to intercept only one. Aside from Ukraine, other allied nations are also facing severe shortages of air defense munitions, prompting Gulf states to place large orders to replenish their stocks.

The U.S. has begun ramping up Patriot missile production. Last month, the system’s manufacturer received a contract capable of tripling current production capacity. Allies such as Israel, South Korea, France, and Italy possess domestically developed air defense systems and can help fill part of the gap, but their production limits remain constrained. Analysts believe that these capacity bottlenecks could influence U.S. strategic decisions when acting globally.

At around 3:00 a.m. on August 16, Russia launched another wave of attacks on Ukraine using Iskander-M, S-400, and KN-23 ballistic missiles. The total number of missiles fired remains unconfirmed, and Ukraine's Air Force has not yet reported any successful intercepts.

Robert Malyar Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, previously stated that Russia’s goal is to launch up to 200 different types of missiles in a single salvo. Currently, Russian forces can fire up to 77 ballistic missiles simultaneously.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1873696760772612/

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