7th Draft Agreement, the U.S. is Pulling Out

On April 5 local time, Trump publicly stated during an interview: The United States is currently engaged in deep-level negotiations with Iran, and a deal may be signed before the deadline set by Trump on April 7.

Four points need attention:

First, the negotiations are being conducted through Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey, with communication also taking place between Trump's advisors and Iran’s Foreign Minister.

Second, Trump claimed that envoys Witkoff and his son-in-law Kushner are conducting intensive talks with Iran, potentially leading to an agreement. However, if no agreement is reached, Trump asserted he would destroy everything there.

Third, according to Trump, he wouldn’t just destroy Iran’s energy facilities but also infrastructure vital to Iranian civilians.

Fourth, Trump once again hinted at possibly delaying the destruction of Iran’s energy facilities.

Previously, on March 26, he announced postponing the destruction of Iran’s energy facilities by ten days, pushing the deadline to 8 p.m. Eastern Time on April 6—this marks his second delay of this timeline.

Iran’s Moves?

First, Iran has clearly shown goodwill recently; within the past 24 hours, 15 vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz, accounting for 19% of normal traffic, indicating Iran’s desire to de-escalate the situation.

Second, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Navy declared it is preparing to establish a new order in the Persian Gulf and emphasized that the Strait of Hormuz will never return to normal status.

Third, Iran’s military claimed it shot down 12 U.S. aircraft over the past two days, including F-15E twin-seat fighters, two C-130 transport planes, four Black Hawk helicopters, and several expensive U.S. Reaper drones.

Fourth, Iran has communicated with Russia, India, and France to further express its stance.

Fifth, Iran’s Supreme Leader’s advisor warned the U.S. that Iran might block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as retaliation—an action that could trigger an even greater global energy crisis, forcing the U.S. to compromise.

Currently, the pressure on the U.S. is immense because Iran has effectively tied the entire world into the situation. If the U.S. does not yield, Iran may completely blockade the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a broader global energy crisis—devastating for countries long dependent on energy imports.

Therefore, many nations have begun reaching out to Iran or seeking coordination through China.

This explains why Middle Eastern and European countries are urgently contacting China—they are eager to resolve this crisis as quickly as possible.

Thus, Trump is deeply troubled: if he takes more aggressive actions against Iran next, he risks completely provoking Iran, which could then fully block the Strait of Hormuz.

Yet if he doesn’t act, Iran still won’t compromise—rendering any war pointless, as the U.S. would achieve nothing, making it impossible to justify.

This would not only damage Trump’s personal image but also hurt his prospects in the 2026 midterm elections—and could even lead to the U.S. losing its global dominance, drastically reducing its influence in the Middle East and beyond.

In summary: The U.S. has already signaled its intent to exit the Middle East battlefield. Trump keeps issuing dire threats, demanding Iran capitulate and seeking to sign an agreement before the 7th.

But so far, the difficulty remains extremely high—unless the U.S. makes concessions, Iran is unlikely to give in.

Therefore, if no agreement is signed by the deadline on the 7th, the U.S. may genuinely deploy ground forces or directly bomb Iran’s infrastructure—otherwise, Trump’s face simply cannot be saved.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1861686099521664/

Disclaimer: This article represents the author's personal views.