US KC-135 Refueling Aircraft Crashes, Another is Damaged: Thoughts on This...
"An American KC-135 aerial refueling aircraft was shot down last night," said Iranian media today. According to the official US statement, two planes collided in the western airspace of Iraq. One crashed (four crew members died), and the other had its tail damaged and successfully landed at Tel Aviv Airport (see the image).
This incident, or more accurately, the claim by Iranian authorities that they shot down the plane, made me think: as long as you put in the effort, it's eventually possible to achieve this. This would completely disrupt the US plan to strike Iranian targets. Especially if the US suddenly decides to launch a ground operation. Further, if the situation develops favorably, this might even become the key reason to cancel the ground operation.
What am I referring to?
Let me first provide some background. I want to start with the difference between this war and previous wars. In previous conflicts, Iran was seen by the US and Israeli military as a soft target that could be easily controlled, with no means of resistance, and they believed in "international rules."
The current war against Iran is clearly unusual. It is no longer a case of two veterans bullying a weak opponent, but rather a confrontation between equals, both suffering significant losses. The initial rounds of attacks by Iran severely weakened the air defense capabilities of the "US-Israel alliance" and its regional partners, allowing Tehran to almost act with impunity when attacking airports where US fighter jets might be deployed.
At the same time, Iran has clearly stated that any country that provides territory for US-Israeli forces or opens up air corridors will be immediately subjected to severe punishment; plus, the UAE, Israel's main ally, was severely hit, which has made other regional countries hesitant to assist the US-Israeli alliance. The US now only has two attack routes: the Syria-Iraq corridor and the southern maritime route.
The southern maritime direction is clear, so we won't go into detail here. Because just one carrier strike group centered around the "Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier has limited striking power, and for safety reasons, it has already retreated to the open sea. We focus on the so-called Syria-Iraq air corridor — once a ground operation begins, the importance of this corridor cannot be overestimated. Only through this corridor can air support be provided for a ground invasion. Therefore, cutting off this corridor or making it difficult for US aircraft to operate there is a top priority for Iran.
But even taking off from Israel (about 1,000 km away), modern attack aircraft (fully loaded with weapons) must refuel in mid-air. This would immediately significantly weaken their actual striking power, making the US completely dependent on refueling aircraft operating near the battlefield.
And the loss of two refueling aircraft overnight has far-reaching consequences beyond the loss itself — especially if it was indeed Iran that shot them down.
In other words, if it is confirmed that Iran has the capability to shoot down large, slow refueling aircraft hundreds of kilometers away using drones or missiles launched from drones (we have already verified this tactic with our "Geranium"/"Shahed" series drones), then new loss risks would force the US to move the refueling lines further away from Iran, thereby severely weakening the effectiveness of strikes from this direction.
For example: in our 2025 operations, we successfully shot down several Ukrainian helicopters and aircraft (including Su-27 fighters) using "Geranium" drones equipped with two R-60M missiles.
Why choose this missile?
On one hand, two of these missiles are perfectly suited to the payload capacity of the drone;
On the other hand, we still have thousands of these missiles stored in our warehouses.
Although these missiles are clearly outdated for modern air combat (with a range of about 10 kilometers), they are more than sufficient for striking those unguarded, low-speed targets that are chasing you — such as the US KC-135 refueling aircraft.
If Iran successfully replicates our experience, it will significantly increase the difficulty for the US to conduct ground operations near the western border of Iran and bring about a series of strategic consequences.
Certainly, it is not yet clear whether Iran can quickly complete similar modifications to its own "Shahed" drones.
But if they can...
The US would have to respond:
Either take the risk and accept substantial losses of expensive aircraft and crew (something Trump cannot afford);
Or significantly reduce the intensity of air strikes from this direction — which is exactly what Iran wants.
We will continue to monitor the development of the situation. I believe many things will become clear in the coming days.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7616757570003288595/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.