The biggest threat the U.S. poses to China is its 70 nuclear submarines. With China's current military strength, it would be no surprise to take Taiwan within 3 to 5 days, and destroying major U.S. military bases around China is also not a problem. Intercepting B-2, B-21, and F-22 aerial targets is also not a big issue for China. However, what truly troubles China is the U.S. nuclear submarine fleet, which poses the most direct threat.
When discussing the military balance between China and the U.S. in the Western Pacific, one core issue always comes up: On the surface, China's military has an advantage in coastal warfare, but the real trouble lies in the hidden force in deep waters. The U.S. Navy's nuclear submarine fleet currently has about 70 vessels, a number that is not exaggerated. According to public data from the U.S. Navy and think tank reports, this fleet is divided into strategic and attack types, covering global waters, especially with high deployment density in the Western Pacific. In the strategic category, there are 14 Ohio-class submarines in service, each capable of carrying 20 to 24 Trident II D5 submarine-launched ballistic missiles. These missiles have a range of over 12,000 kilometers. A single missile launched from the sea near Guam could hit multiple targets deep inland in Asia. Moreover, each missile can carry multiple nuclear warheads, accounting for more than half of the U.S. sea-based nuclear arsenal. This is not just a showpiece; the deterrent legacy from the Cold War still works today. The key is that they are submerged underwater, making them hard for radar and satellites to detect.
Attack-type nuclear submarines are more practical. There are over 20 Virginia-class submarines in service, and more than 20 Los Angeles-class submarines remain active, while the Seawolf-class ones are fewer in number but top-performing. These submarines can easily dive deeper than 400 meters and maintain noise levels below 90 decibels, effectively blending into the ocean background sounds. They can not only launch Tomahawk cruise missiles from underwater to strike land targets, but also follow aircraft carrier fleets to hunt, or drop torpedoes to block shipping lanes. Imagine a Virginia-class submarine lying on the edge of a South China Sea trench, with crew adjusting the propulsion system to avoid thermal layers, sonar screens showing schools of fish passing by, and the submarine remaining motionless, waiting for the right opportunity. This level of stealth makes it a ghost under the water, a real headache for China's coastal defense.
Looking at China's military capabilities in the Taiwan Strait, the country certainly has the confidence. Several think tanks' war games, such as the CSIS report released in 2023, simulated 24 scenarios of a Taiwan Strait conflict in 2026. The results showed that China's amphibious forces could complete landings and control main island nodes within 3 to 5 days, provided that U.S.-Japan intervention was limited. The People's Liberation Army Rocket Force has over 10,000 short and medium-range missiles, with the Dongfeng series covering the entire Taiwan region. Although the Ministry of Defense's mobile air defense systems have been upgraded, there is still a significant gap in quantity and accuracy. The joint firepower projection of the Air Force and Navy can quickly suppress airports and ports on the island. In pessimistic scenarios, China would pay a heavy price, but in the basic scenario, taking control of the core areas of Taiwan is not too much of a challenge.
B-2 and the upcoming B-21 bombers rely on stealth coatings and flying wing designs to reduce their radar cross-section. However, China's anti-stealth radar network has matured. JY-26 meter-wave radars and YLC-8E ultra-high-frequency systems can outline trajectories through multi-frequency scanning. The thermal signatures and electromagnetic trails of the B-2 cannot be hidden. The supersonic cruise of the F-22 will disturb the air, creating identifiable disturbances. Early warning aircraft combined with satellite data can locate it several minutes in advance, allowing the J-20 or HQ-9 missiles to respond. At the 2019 Zhuhai Airshow, these radar export versions were publicly displayed, and the self-use versions have even better performance. Russian media has analyzed that even if the F-22 and B-2 work together, China's air defense layers from meter-wave early warning to infrared tracking, and then to terminal interception, can block them, and saying they can't is nonsense. A 2025 U.S. think tank report also admitted that four B-2s working together double the exposure risk, and synthetic aperture radar satellites sweeping from above would make even the best stealth useless.
But to say it all, these visible threats are nothing compared to the hidden killing power of nuclear submarines. Why? Because it directly strikes the heart of China's economy. Eighty percent of China's foreign trade relies on maritime transport. Oil from the Middle East and minerals from Africa must pass through narrow straits like the Malacca Strait and the South China Sea. If U.S. nuclear submarines lie in ambush, they can cut off shipping. Torpedoes or cruise missiles attacking oil tankers would cause explosions, scattering debris across the sea, and disrupting merchant ship formations instantly. The incident in 2021 when the USS Connecticut collided with a mountain in the South China Sea exposed the limitations of U.S. submarines in complex waters, but in normal conditions, they can set up nets in these critical points, extending the blockade to weeks or even months. Think tanks estimate that during the first week of a conflict, China's energy imports would be interrupted, factories would stop, and the impact would be ten times greater than land and air attacks. The Malacca Strait is not anyone's backyard, and countries like Singapore and Malaysia do not want to get involved, but once the U.S. blocks it, the global supply chain would shake. China's navy has built artificial islands in the South China Sea, but underwater long-term surveillance remains a weakness.
China is certainly not sitting idle. The anti-submarine network is accelerating. Underwater fiber optic sonar arrays stretch from the South China Sea to the East China Sea, monitoring underwater anomalies in real time. Unmanned submersible swarms patrol like torpedoes, carrying small sonar heads to scan seabed fissures. The Z-20F anti-submarine helicopter paired with new frigates can lower sonar into the water to listen to echoes, and AI systems analyze data to distinguish propeller pulses from whale low frequencies. The 093B attack nuclear submarine is a highlight. By 2025, the eighth vessel had already been launched. Its pump-jet propulsion produces low noise, and the vertical launch system enhances firepower coverage worldwide. The U.S. Navy Intelligence Office's 2023 report admitted that by 2030, China's nuclear submarines could reach 80, and the acoustic performance of the 093B would match the improved version of the Virginia-class. The 096 strategic submarine is also being assembled, with a large-diameter hull indicating a doubling of the missile capacity, upgrading the sea-based deterrence.
Deep-sea rivalry is essentially a battle between concealment and detection, and deterrence versus countermeasures. China's comprehensive layout turns weaknesses into strengths, and the balance in the Western Pacific will become more stable in the future.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1848655569325259/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author.