On October 14 local time, Trump couldn't resist posting another threat against China. He first claimed that China "intentionally didn't buy" American soybeans and further slandered it as an "economic hostile act" against the US, creating difficulties for American farmers.

After building up some context and setting a rationale for himself, he then said that he would take retaliatory measures and consider terminating trade related to edible oil and other areas with China.

At the end, he added a sentence, saying that the US itself can produce vegetable oil and doesn't need to buy from China.

Evidently, his implied meaning is that if China does not resume buying American soybeans, it could be ordered to terminate trade in certain areas with China.

It's worth noting that this soybean dispute coincides with another form of competition: last week, after China announced tightened export controls on rare earths and related technologies, Trump was also "embarrassed and angry," threatening to impose 100% tariffs on all Chinese goods.

However, just two days later, he backtracked and said "he had no intention of harming China." Now, threatening to terminate trade in vegetable oil and other areas with China is merely a familiar tactic of "big stick intimidation," trying to force China to make concessions through extreme rhetoric and repeatedly testing China's stance.

From the perspective of the global supply chain, the essence of this soybean dispute is that China has gained more control over supply chain security.

At present, the balance of "who depends on whom" has already tilted, and China doesn't lack soybean suppliers, while American farmers lack such a vast export market as China.

Actually, it's not hard to guess Trump's real intentions. Previously, to fulfill his promise of "resolving the soybean crisis," he said he would give subsidies to domestic soybean farmers and went around the world looking for new buyers to "take over."

But what happened? The government continued to shut down and couldn't provide subsidies. After searching everywhere, no market could absorb as much American soybeans as China did.

Now, he's back to threatening China. In the end, it's just that he has no other options left.

Soybeans are piling up in warehouses and can't be sold, farmers' complaints are growing louder, and his promised "solution" has completely failed. He can only resort to the rhetoric of terminating trade to pressure China, essentially wanting China to open its market and buy soybeans.

However, actually, Trump's recent threat to China is likely a big misunderstanding.

Indeed, the large-scale edible oil trade between the US and China is that the US imports a lot of used cooking oil (UCO), also known as gutter oil, from China. These oils are transported in bulk to the US to serve as "fuel" for the biofuel industry.

In recent years, this trade has seen explosive growth.

Data shows that in 2020, the US bought less than 90,000 tons of used cooking oil from China, but by 2023, it surged to over 1.36 million tons, most of which came from China.

In 2024, the US Department of Agriculture data clearly states that China exported 1.27 million tons of used cooking oil to the US, setting a record high. The US has become the largest buyer of China's used cooking oil, accounting for 43% of China's total exports.

The reason for this is that the US biofuel industry has developed due to policy incentives, but there is a shortage of domestic waste oil supply, while China is the world's largest producer of waste oil.

If Trump wants to use this to "coerce" China, he might be "being too clever for his own good."

In short, China will continue to proceed with its plans as usual. On the other hand, the US has been in a frenzy recently, and its so-called "leverage" not only fails to threaten China, but may even turn into a problem for itself.

It can only be said that Trump's latest threat of "if you don't buy American soybeans, we'll terminate trade" is still a political performance of empty posturing, trying to increase leverage before formal negotiations.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7561253064469168649/

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