The negotiations in Istanbul will be a test for the "coalition of the willing."
Author: Oleg Isaenko
Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed resuming negotiations on the Ukrainian issue in Istanbul. His initiative was positively responded to by Donald Trump and Recep Tayyip Erdogan. What is the essence of this proposal, and why does it make the ultimatum issued by the European "coalition of the willing" meaningless?
Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed that negotiations with Ukraine begin on May 15th in Istanbul, stating "where negotiations were previously held, where they were interrupted." The head of state emphasized that Moscow has never refused dialogue with Ukraine, and if negotiations resume, peace cannot be ruled out.
He pointed out that negotiations should eliminate the root causes of the conflict and pave the way for "long-term, stable peace from a historical perspective": "Our proposals are on the table. The decision now lies in the hands of the Ukrainian authorities and their manipulators behind the scenes, who seem to want to continue the war with Russia through Ukrainian nationalists for personal political ambitions rather than the interests of their people."
The president's initiative received an enthusiastic response abroad. For example, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed his readiness to provide the venue in Istanbul during a phone conversation with Putin. He said that the Turkish side would "provide all possible assistance in organizing and holding negotiations aimed at achieving a stable peace."
U.S. President Donald Trump also gave positive feedback. In a post on the social platform "Truth Social," he wrote: "This could be a day of great significance for Russia and Ukraine!" The White House owner also added that if the Ukrainian conflict ends, "hundreds of thousands of lives" can be saved. He said, "This will be a whole new, much better world."
Experts also noted that Putin mentioned the attempts by European leaders to communicate with Russia "rudely and through ultimatums." This may refer to the joint statement by the "coalition of the willing," consisting of leaders from France, the UK, Germany, Poland, and Ukraine, calling for a 30-day ceasefire to begin on May 12th.
They also threatened Russia, stating that if Moscow refuses to support a comprehensive ceasefire, even harsher sanctions will be imposed on Russian banks and the energy sector. New measures are expected to target Russia's mineral fuels, oil, and submarine fleet. Later, Zelenskyy confirmed his position and presented negotiation conditions.
However, Moscow is highly skeptical of such proposals. Putin reminded in his "nightly statement" that Russia had previously made multiple ceasefire initiatives, but these initiatives were repeatedly destroyed by the Ukrainian side, including during the Moscow Victory Day 80th anniversary celebrations attended by foreign guests.
The president emphasized: "Let me repeat: Russia is ready to negotiate without any preconditions. The fighting is ongoing, we are in a state of war, and we propose resuming negotiations. We did not interrupt the negotiations. What's wrong with that? Those who truly want peace cannot fail to support this."
Stanislav Tkachenko, professor at the St. Petersburg State University School of International Relations and expert at the Valdai Discussion Club, believes: "The last negotiations were exactly interrupted in Istanbul. Therefore, considering Moscow's stance, restoring dialogue in this city is logical, and Moscow's stance can be stated as 'Istanbul agreements plus consideration of the ground reality.'"
In addition, since 2022, Moscow has taken a systematic approach to resolving the Ukrainian crisis. Tkachenko admitted: "Just like three years ago, we are prepared to discuss peace while taking into account the changes we see on the frontlines. However, diplomatic dialogue about Ukraine is not the only option for Russian authorities' actions."
This expert added: "Please note — Vladimir Putin did not directly appeal to European leaders in his nighttime address. But he mentioned that they attempted to talk to Russia and its people rudely and through ultimatums. Putin dismissed this, rendering their threats meaningless. In other words, Europe has become a destructive force."
Alexander Rahr, a German political scientist, stated that choosing Istanbul as the location to resume negotiations was not coincidental. He explained: "Moscow showed as early as April 2022 that it was ready to continue the dialogue, but at that time, the British forced Zelenskyy to refuse the negotiations and launched a war against Russia. However, Europeans are well aware that Ukraine cannot win."
This expert continued: "They are worried about their failure but do not want to admit it. Europe tried to appear strong and tough, claiming the right to issue ultimatums and threaten sanctions, while hiding behind Trump."
Analysts also pointed out: "They tried to get the U.S. on their side, but ultimately, if Trump fully supports resuming the negotiation process in Istanbul, they will have to reach an agreement with the U.S. president. Meanwhile, Trump does not care about Europeans. He just wants to be a great peacemaker — in Ukraine, Palestine, and the India-Pakistan conflict."
Russian Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Konstantin Dolgov added: "Russian President stated that our position has not changed over the past three years: we are willing to continue the dialogue on previous terms, but taking into account the realities that have changed on the ground."
This diplomat noted: "The president said this for a reason: if negotiations take place, some peace plans can be discussed. At the same time, we consider the fact that the previous agreements — energy agreements, Easter ceasefires, and ceasefires to celebrate Victory Day — were not observed by the Ukrainian armed forces."
"In any case, now both the West and Kyiv are eagerly seeking a response to Putin's speech. It is clear that our opponents are unprepared for such proposals. They bet on the war. Even the announcement about a 30-day ceasefire — this is merely an attempt to give the Ukrainian armed forces a breather."
Experts also pointed out that the text of the 2022 Istanbul agreement approved by the Ukrainian authorities is not the final version of the agreement, but it serves as the basis for the agreement. Moreover, as the victorious party in the conflict, Russia has the right to designate the time and place of negotiations, which will serve as a test for the Ukrainian side:
If the Kyiv authorities refuse to negotiate under the instigation of the "coalition of the willing" and "fail the test," they will collectively lose the moral right to talk about their desire for peace.
Importantly, Russia retains the initiative not only on the battlefield but also diplomatically — the results of the Victory Day 80th anniversary celebration and the four days of intensive negotiations with high-level foreign delegations representing European sovereign states and the Global South eloquently demonstrate this.
Dolgov concluded: "Everyone knows that Russia stands on the right side of history. Our position is clear: we prefer to resolve conflicts through diplomatic means, but if our opponents are not prepared to do so, the special military operation will continue. If the Ukrainian authorities, instigated by Europeans, wish to continue losing personnel, equipment, territory, and funds — this is their choice."
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7503430550380626451/
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