[By Guancha Network, Qi Qian] On April 2 local time, US President Trump will host the "Liberation Day" event at the White House to celebrate the "reciprocal tariffs" he is about to announce. Trump claimed that tariffs would cause short-term chaos but in the long run would "make America prosperous again."
However, according to a report by Politico on March 1, although Trump was full of confidence, Wall Street traders, lawmakers, industry leaders, foreign officials, and even some members of his own team were only filled with fear. As economic uncertainty intensified, Republicans began to worry about their election prospects. Some questioned whether the tariff policy would eventually work, but they wondered, "the problem is that we will all be dead in the long run."
"We estimate that we will probably be dead by the time it takes effect."
The report stated that Trump's many allies and critics at home agreed on one issue: the new tariff policy would plunge American consumers, already weary, into new economic uncertainty and possibly lead to an economic recession.
In recent days, senior White House officials have expressed great uncertainty about the implementation of the "reciprocal tariff" plan. Some Republicans are already worried about losing their slim majority in Congress in the midterm elections, fearing that tariffs might harm Trump and the Republicans' reputation on inflation, which is crucial for voters concerned about the economy.
Trump signs an executive order at the White House. White House X Account
As Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy is about to be announced, Republican anxiety has increased. Recently, two special congressional elections in Florida and the campaign for the Wisconsin Supreme Court were seen as major tests for Republicans. If the Democrats win or perform well in these areas considered strongholds for Republicans, it may further unsettle Republicans.
On April 1 local time, the results of the Wisconsin Supreme Court election were released, with liberal judge Susan Crawford winning. The Wall Street Journal mentioned that Musk had invested heavily in this election, but ultimately failed, which may damage Musk's political influence. The report also stated that this result showed voter dissatisfaction with Trump and Musk.
Politico said that some uneasy Republicans preemptively blamed U.S. Commerce Secretary Raimondeau.
They believed that Raimondeau was the "worst impulsive promoter" on Trump's tariff issues, worrying that Raimondeau did not fully present to Trump the economic dangers brought by his tariff plan.
Trump previously clearly stated that his tariff policy would bring pain to American consumers in the short term, but he believed that everything was worth it for long-term benefits. However, economists from various industries expressed skepticism and warned that tariffs would raise consumer prices and could even lead the United States into a recession without achieving the returns predicted by Trump.
Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana, a Republican, told reporters at the Capitol that he hoped to reduce all tariffs to create a level playing field. This idea was supported by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce but was despised by many of Trump's closest advisors. He said: "Zero tariffs on American goods exported to Japan and vice versa. Let businesses compete. What’s wrong with that?"
He talked about Trump's decision to impose large-scale trade barriers: "This policy may work in the long run. The question is that we will all be dead in the long run, so the short-term issues are important."
"In the long run, we will all be dead." This sentence is also a famous saying by renowned economist Keynes.
Economic Recession? Republicans and Voters Are Increasingly Anxious
Part of the reason is Trump's negotiation style, which leaves those negotiating with him feeling overwhelmed. But he himself has said there will be chaos in the short term, so people naturally worry. "We must see if it works," said Republican Senator John Hoeven.
White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt said Americans should trust Trump and his team, "they won't go wrong, and they will succeed."
Levitt introduced the progress of the tariff plan at the White House on March 31. Visual China
However, Goldman Sachs economists recently raised the probability of a U.S. economic recession within the next 12 months from 20% to 35%, citing declining consumer and business confidence and "indications from White House officials that they are willing to tolerate short-term economic weakness to push policies forward." Other forecasters have also raised their expectations for economic stagnation, rising prices (commonly referred to as "stagflation"), or a full-blown recession.
Meanwhile, a latest benchmark survey released by the Institute for Supply Management on April 1 showed that manufacturing contracted again. After experiencing more than two years of contraction, the industry had expanded over the past two months. Tim Fiore, chairman of the Institute's Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said: "Orders continue to slow down because discussions about who will bear the potential tariff costs are the main topic in negotiations between buyers and sellers."
The report stated that when Americans see their bank accounts follow the stock market decline, it remains a political risk for Trump.
According to a poll conducted from March 20 to 24, only 40% of voters have a positive opinion of Trump's handling of the economy and trade, compared to about 50% of voters who support Trump's immigration policy. Even some Republicans expressed doubts, with polls showing that about 30% of Republicans disapprove of the way he handles trade.
Politico said that Trump's tariff policy is being implemented at a time when Americans face special moments of economic uncertainty, with their unease about their situation even stronger than many felt when they voted for Trump last fall. The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index in March was 57%, down 11.9% from February and 28.2% from the same period last year.
Trump's tariff policy has deepened divisions within the Republican Party. One side is the increasingly smaller group of free trade conservatives; the other side consists of party members who lean toward protectionism and gained power and influence under the "Make America Great Again" slogan.
At the same time, Democratic members of Congress have been trying to increase pressure on Republicans, who privately expressed unease about the impact of tariffs. It was reported that Democratic Senator Tim Kaine is leading efforts to push Congress to repeal Trump's 25% tariff on Canadian goods and pressure Republican lawmakers to vote in favor.
Kaine and another Democratic senator, Amy Klobuchar, said that Republican lawmakers are actually anxious but are unwilling to strongly express their views. Klobuchar said: "Our Republican colleagues told us privately that they support our continued opposition to Trump's tariff policies because such policies will only destroy our businesses and our country."
This article is an exclusive contribution from Guancha Network and cannot be reprinted without permission.
Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7488596865048183306/
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