Reference Message Network reported on April 20th according to a report by the "Nikkei Asian Review" on April 10th, the Southeast Asian rice industry is troubled by over-supply. Due to India, the world's largest rice exporter, lifting the ban on polished rice exports in 2024, the prices of Thai and Vietnamese rice may drop by 30% compared to last year. Thailand and Vietnam are attempting to tap into the Japanese market, which has been continuously short of rice supply, to get out of their predicament.

Data from the Thai Rice Exporters Association shows that the export price of representative polished rice (with a broken grain rate of 5%) in April was $412 per ton, a 31% decrease from $599 per ton last year. In terms of single-month data for April, the decline was the highest in 11 years.

In terms of quantity (for the fiscal year 2022-2023), Thailand is the world's second-largest rice exporter. Although agriculture accounts for less than 10% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP), if farmers lose their enthusiasm for growing rice, it may have an impact on future domestic and international food security.

The price of rice from Vietnam, the world's third-largest rice exporter, has also plummeted. According to statistics from the Vietnam Food Association, the current export price of Vietnamese rice is about $400 per ton, down approximately 40% from the end of 2023, with some varieties even cheaper than those from Thailand and India. Local media reports indicate that the export price of Vietnamese rice has reached its lowest level in nine years. Some people believe that the export volume in 2025 will be down 20% compared to last year.

The decline in rice export prices in both countries is related to India, the world's largest rice exporter. According to U.S. Department of Agriculture data, India's rice exports account for about 40% of the global total, surpassing the combined exports of Thailand and Vietnam. India's actions easily influence international rice prices.

In July 2023, India banned the export of polished rice except for fragrant rice to lower rice prices and prioritize domestic supply. Due to reduced supply, the prices of Thai and Vietnamese rice on the international market were about 10% to 20% higher than normal years.

In September 2024, the situation changed dramatically as India lifted the ban on polished rice exports, alleviating market concerns. On March 7, 2025, the export ban on cheap broken rice (with a broken grain rate of 100%) used for food processing was also lifted. The mainstream view is that the price of polished rice on the international market will continue to fall in the future.

Measures taken by some rice importing countries have further impacted Thailand and Vietnam.

The fourth-largest rice-consuming country in the world, Indonesia, will stop importing rice in 2025. Prabowo's government, which came to power in October 2024, prioritizes food security and aims to achieve self-sufficiency in food no later than early 2026, while promoting the expansion of arable land.

The Philippines announced entering a state of food security emergency in February this year to curb inflation. The government released stockpiled rice into the market to lower retail rice prices. Due to the falling international market prices, the trend of importers requesting price reductions from rice exporting countries has begun to spread.

Tetsuya Kaneko, chief researcher at Marubeni Economic Research Institute, pointed out: "In Southeast Asia where rice is the staple food, the price of rice is a livelihood issue." He believes: "As the trend for importing countries to increase self-sufficiency is inevitable, the export volumes of countries like Thailand and Vietnam will face downward pressure in the medium to long term."

The Thai government said in March that talks had been held with India and Vietnam aimed at stabilizing rice export prices and avoiding excessive competition. Although no specific agreements have been reached, all parties intend to continue negotiations.

Various countries are also trying to find solutions in Japan, which has experienced record rice shortages. The Thai government participated in the International Food Fair held in Tokyo in March to promote Thai rice. Vietnam has also listed Japan as an export destination alongside the United States and Africa, conducting relevant market research.

The type of rice most commonly consumed by Japanese people is short-grain rice. Thailand and Vietnam mainly produce long-grain rice, which is the main reason for the opposite trends in rice prices between Japan and Thailand/Vietnam. (Translated by Liu Lin)

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7495307348492255759/

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