The dialogue among China, Japan, South Korea and ASEAN has just been concluded, and Vietnam has begun to "leave the table", intending to start trade negotiations with Trump.

Recently, China, Japan, South Korea, and the ten ASEAN countries gathered to hold a meeting. Asian countries united their voices to clearly oppose trade protectionism, which is also a positive signal for regional economic cooperation.

Gathering of China, Japan, South Korea and the ten ASEAN countries for a meeting

Among them, Vietnam, as one of the declaratory countries, showed its posture of jointly responding to trade protectionism with Asian countries.

However, right after the talks among China, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN ended, the domestic wind direction in Vietnam changed. Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh announced that he would hold the first round of bilateral trade negotiations with the United States this Wednesday, particularly pointing out that Vietnam was one of the six countries initially agreed by the U.S. to negotiate tariffs.

This time, Vietnam aims to reduce the U.S. import tariffs on Vietnamese products to zero, hoping that the U.S. can treat Vietnamese products equally.

But will this compromising proposal really make the U.S. "open its net"? Trump is not trustworthy, and Vietnam's idea of "zero tariff" has almost no possibility of realization under the U.S.' "America First" trade logic.

In Trump's view, trade negotiations are not about seeking win-win outcomes but a zero-sum game. The concessions made by other countries are just a prelude to satisfying America's greedy appetite. If Vietnam only hopes to gain equal treatment from the U.S. by reducing its own tariffs, it is no different from trying to get a tiger to give up its skin.

However, Vietnam's choice to negotiate with the U.S. this time was expected.

Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh

After all, unlike China's complete industrial chain system and vast domestic market, once Vietnam loses the U.S., an important market, the risk of its industry becoming hollow will rapidly increase, and the growth momentum will also significantly decline.

This deep reliance on the U.S. market has become a heavy shackle in Vietnam's foreign policy decision-making, forcing it to "bow down" when faced with U.S. tariff threats.

But to be honest, compromises can never truly solve problems. As long as other countries give Trump benefits, he will continue to demand more, endlessly, even losing what they initially managed to keep.

Moreover, blindly compromising in unequal trade negotiations is like drinking poison to quench thirst. It may bring temporary relief, but in the long run, it will inevitably lead to more severe consequences.

Vietnam's negotiations with the U.S. this time are unlikely to achieve ideal results. As a global economic power, the U.S. holds a dominant position in trade negotiations and will not easily abandon its so-called interests. It will surely exert increasing pressure on Vietnam at the negotiating table.

Trump

In addition, this reflects the delicate balance in Vietnam's diplomacy. Against the backdrop of the great power competition between China and the U.S., Vietnam does not want to lose China's vast market and investment, but it must maintain its economic and trade relations with the U.S.

However, this "two-front appeasement" strategy carries significant risks. If the U.S. proposes additional conditions such as opening financial markets or limiting cooperation with China during the negotiations, Vietnam will face a dilemma.

When Vietnam tries to use concessions to gain tariff reductions, it may be laying the groundwork for future greater economic risks. Whether the outcome of this Wednesday's negotiations will be "honey" or "arsenic" has already been predetermined.

In the long term, Vietnam's single economic structure and excessive dependence on exports will become more prominent. In the face of changes in U.S. or other countries' trade policies in the future, it will become more vulnerable.

U.S.-Vietnam relations

In the ever-changing global trade landscape, Vietnam needs to rely on itself, gradually reduce its dependence on a single market, deepen regional cooperation with Asian countries, enhance its ability to resist external risks, and stabilize its footing in the complex international economic environment.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7501288068817715751/

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