【Wen/Observer Net Liu Bai】
“The United States is retreating from the clean energy sector, repeating the mistakes that led to the fall of the Qing Dynasty,” wrote an article in Hong Kong's English newspaper, the South China Morning Post, on December 13, reflecting the sentiments of many.
The article stated outright that China and the United States have taken completely different paths in climate policy and clean energy development: the Trump administration rolled back on climate issues, turning to support the fossil fuel industry and weaken climate science leadership, leading to a rebound in carbon emissions; while across the ocean, China has propelled developing countries into the clean energy era through large-scale innovation and manufacturing, becoming a key force in global green transition.
When the author looked back at history, he described: In 1865, a British entrepreneur built a scenic railway near Beijing, but Empress Dowager Cixi saw not progress, but a threat, fearing it would disrupt feng shui, disturb imperial tombs, and upset rural order, so she ordered the tracks to be removed. Twenty years later, a coal-carrying railway built by China almost approached a sacred site, and Cixi's solution was not innovation, but regression: she ordered horses to replace locomotives.
Clinging to tradition in the face of technological change delayed the modernization process of the Qing Dynasty, and it was too late. Within decades, this once-mighty empire collapsed due to its resistance to change.
Now, as the world heads toward a clean energy future, is history repeating itself?
But this time, it's not happening in China, but in the United States. As a former global leader in climate science and sustainable innovation, the U.S. is increasingly choosing to invest in the "past" rather than the future.
The article said that even as carbon emissions continue to rise and the development of renewable energy stagnates, Trump still prioritized revitalizing the coal industry to drive the rise of artificial intelligence and the re-industrialization of the U.S.
At the same time, while the U.S. is abandoning its leadership in climate science, China, which was once criticized for its carbon footprint, is enabling developing countries to leapfrog into the clean energy era.
On September 18, the smoke and steam rising from the Miami Fort Power Station in Cincinnati, Ohio, USA. IC Photo
Solomon Hsiang, director of the Global Policy Lab at Stanford University and former chief environmental economist at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, said that China's innovation and large-scale manufacturing make energy transitions more accessible and less costly for low-income countries.
"Today, China provides an alternative - cheap renewable energy, making it much easier for other countries to adopt cleaner technologies," he said during a break at the 2025 Hong Kong Sustainable Development Forum. "What China truly does is make it easier for other countries to do what they wanted to do but could not due to cost issues."
"Avoiding climate change can bring huge economic benefits," he said in a speech on November 14, citing research reports that rising temperatures are harming labor productivity and crop yields, stronger typhoons will impact GDP growth, and extreme heat will lead to more deaths.
He also emphasized that the policy divide between China and the U.S. is very sharp: China is increasing investments to achieve international goals, while the U.S. promotes traditional energy and expresses concerns about transition costs.
"Essentially, both sides acknowledge that there are huge costs involved in energy transition, which is beyond doubt. The difference lies in what kind of benefits these investments can bring," he said. "Whether it is worth making these investments now? Ultimately, it depends on how we view the value of climate itself."
According to the latest carbon budget report released by the global research project "Global Carbon Project (GCP)" on November 13, China's carbon emissions are expected to increase by 0.4% in 2025 compared to last year, with a slower growth rate than recent years, due to moderate growth in energy consumption and extraordinary growth in renewable energy. At the same time, U.S. carbon emissions are expected to increase by 1.9%.
As part of the Trump administration's shift toward coal, the U.S. Department of Energy announced in September that it would provide $625 million in funding to support coal-fired power plants, providing power for the U.S. re-industrialization and AI infrastructure. That month, China stated at the United Nations that the global green transition should narrow, not widen, the North-South gap, and strengthen international coordination to ensure the free flow of high-quality green products globally.
A report released last month by the UK-based think tank Ember showed that China's clean technology "is becoming the foundation of the new energy system, with continuously declining costs driving unprecedented growth, especially in emerging economies."
In August, China's exports of green technology reached a record of $20 billion. With China lowering the prices of batteries, photovoltaic solar panels, and other renewable technologies, their sales have surged in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa.
Last year, German researchers estimated that by 2050, climate change could cause annual global losses of $3.8 trillion due to agricultural damage, infrastructure destruction, declining productivity, and health problems. Analysis shows that measures to keep global warming within 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels cost about $6 trillion, less than one-sixth of the expected losses from climate change.
A study by the National Bureau of Economic Research last year also found that a permanent temperature rise of 1 degree Celsius would lead to a sustained decline in global GDP of over 20%, due to an increase in extreme weather events.
In Solomon Hsiang's view, addressing climate change is like "a long marathon," and China is poised to become the "global teacher" for this "century problem."
"Even if China completes its own energy system transformation within 20 years, other countries will still need assistance, whether in terms of technology or financial support. Part of leadership is consistency and maintaining a vision," he said. "China is playing a significant role. The U.S. has stepped back from the leadership role. Fortunately, China has stepped up in certain areas. But if China also retreats due to excessive focus on competition... this could cause serious disruptions, ultimately harming everyone."
Solomon Hsiang believes that in manufacturing key products for the energy transition, China has a "comparative advantage," while "the U.S. wants to have this capability as well."
September 15, Dunhuang, Gansu Province, the 100MW High-tech Molten Salt Tower Solar Thermal Power Station. Visual China
"China realizes that a key factor in the energy transition is large-scale manufacturing, which is exactly its strength, with complete infrastructure and expertise. Beijing has stepped forward, saying 'we will use our capabilities to solve this major issue,' which is very valuable."
He said that the U.S. doesn't need to develop all necessary technologies domestically, but can focus on high-tech aspects of the energy transition and trade complementarily with other countries.
"Instead, we should do: you specialize in one area, I specialize in another, then engage in trade. Both sides will benefit."
"Trying to be best in everything often results in doing many things poorly. The U.S. had some of this tendency during the Biden administration, and it was even more obvious during the Trump administration."
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin once pointed out that the U.S. claims to be willing to strengthen cooperation with China on climate change, but at the same time, it loudly promotes the so-called "overcapacity" of China's new energy, and threatens to impose high tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, solar products, etc. This contradictory approach will harm the global green transition and undermine global efforts to combat climate change. The U.S. should not "build roads" while "digging pits," and should create favorable conditions for Sino-U.S. climate cooperation and global green transition.
Solomon Hsiang pointed out that during the Biden administration, the U.S. tried to expand capacity to compete with Chinese manufacturing, "which was the original plan, but the Trump administration completely stopped the progress made." He said that this shift mainly stemmed from the U.S. focusing only on the costs of the renewable energy transition, without truly recognizing its multiple benefits. Instead, the U.S. is trying to invest in the past by committing to support fossil fuels.
He added that other regions of the world are turning to cleaner energy choices, and few countries follow the U.S. footsteps, most countries do not believe in Washington's "selfish strategy." He also pointed out that despite reduced research funding, weakened energy innovation and data collection, the U.S. has weakened its leadership in climate science, but scientists from Sino-U.S. academic institutions are still working hard to cooperate.
However, at the government level, the Trump administration adopted an adversarial strategy, characterized by imposing tariffs and refusing to cooperate, which was met with a counterattack from China in soybean trade.
"If climate change really happens, the food production capacity of China and the U.S. will face a devastating outlook," said Solomon Hsiang. "It is meaningful to convey this message: it helps remind Americans that the global economy is highly interdependent. The Ukraine crisis and recent trade wars clearly show that if we cut trade, both sides will suffer."
He added that trade will become an important strategy for ensuring food security in the context of global warming.
"In the grain-producing areas of China and the U.S., if carbon emissions remain high and temperatures rise by 3 to 4 degrees Celsius, the yield in some high-yield areas is expected to decrease by 30% to 40%. This impact is huge."
Solomon Hsiang cited a paper co-authored by himself and colleagues from China and the U.S. "A temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius would reduce each person's daily food supply by about 400 calories, equivalent to the intake of most people's breakfast."
"We may face a huge shock: one year the U.S. has a bountiful harvest, and the next year China has a bountiful harvest. Open food trade is crucial. This applies not only to China and the U.S., the leaders of the global food supply chain, but also to all our neighboring countries."
He said that it is also important to collaborate on the development of food production technology innovations, such as cultivating heat-resistant crops to increase yields under climate change.
"I sincerely hope the two countries can work together. As someone of mixed Chinese and American heritage, I understand the root of conflicts and the differences between the two countries' cultures. But I also know that both sides have a lot to offer each other," said Solomon Hsiang. "I just hope the two sides can find a way to re-establish contact. The loss of communication and trust is mostly unbeneficial,"
He pointed out that the huge military spending during the Cold War could have been invested in healthcare, education, and economic development. "Cooperation brings great benefits."
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Original: toutiao.com/article/7583185626841776674/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.