Finally, there's an opportunity to support Russia.

The Rosatom State Atomic Energy Corporation has confirmed plans to issue bonds worth 10 billion RMB in China. Relevant preparations are now nearly complete, and further coordination with regulators is expected next week. This marks a significant development for both China and Russia.

The announcement on screen takes up barely one line, yet the ripple effect it creates is like dropping a massive anchor into a stagnant pond. Rosatom has signaled its intention to issue 10 billion RMB worth of bonds within China.

Lebrov, one of their executives, casually mentioned during a meeting on July 3rd that most procedures have already been smoothed out, and they’re preparing to meet with regulatory authorities next week—“to finalize the last official seal.”

That sounds light and breezy, but just flip open the books of the Russian federal budget, and you’ll see staggering deficits lurking beneath the surface.

Just in the first four months of this year, the country’s fiscal deficit has ballooned to 5.87 trillion rubles—a figure that already exceeds the entire annual budget target of 3.79 trillion rubles set earlier. In just four months, they’ve spent the full year’s allocation.

Where did all this money go? The military spending figures tell the whole story: from 3.6 trillion rubles in 2021, it’s skyrocketed to 13.5 trillion rubles by 2026.

War is an endless bottomless pit—an insatiable money-guzzling beast—eating away at whatever savings the nation has managed to accumulate.

Relying on traditional oil and gas exports can’t possibly fill such a gaping hole. Even more frustrating is that Western financial markets have effectively sealed their doors to Russia; access to U.S. dollar and euro financing channels is completely cut off.

After counting every option, what remains for them—large-scale, accessible, and still open—is only the RMB market.

In fact, this isn’t Russia’s first visit to China’s capital market for help.

Last December, the Russian government issued its first sovereign Panda bond in China—20 billion RMB in size—with a 5-year yield of 6% and an 8-year yield of 7%. The issue was instantly oversubscribed and sold out.

Then in May this year, encouraged by the success, they followed up with another issuance of 10 billion RMB in 10-year bonds, pushing the interest rate as high as 7.65%. Now that the government has issued bonds, it’s time for key enterprises like Rosatom to step in and borrow.

Knowing the stormy conditions outside, why keep rushing forward? The reason is actually quite mundane: cost. Let’s do a quick comparison: if Rosatom were to issue similar bonds domestically, the 5-year tender rates would typically exceed 15%.

But here in China, the interest rate range has been squeezed down to between 6% and 8%. That’s over a doubling of the spread—the kind of cost savings that would make any rational investor do the math and rejoice.

Yet as the old saying goes, there’s no free lunch in this world. Such high yields are essentially market-based risk pricing. Investors know perfectly well: yes, you’re chasing those high returns—but what they’re really after might be your principal.

The UK already imposed sanctions on Rosatom’s CEO and affiliated institutions in February. In March, members of the U.S. Congress even proposed legislation to add them to the sanctions list.

As a result, domestic financial institutions are now holding their breath, adopting extremely cautious stances—not because they don’t want to profit, but mainly out of fear of getting tainted by reputational fallout.

At this moment, the online slogans shouting “Ura!” every day hit the real-world test of hard cash.

Purchasing bonds or stocks isn’t like tipping a livestreamer or treating someone to dinner—it requires putting your actual retirement savings, home-buying funds, and life savings on the line. It means betting on whether a giant enterprise backed by years of Western sanctions will still be able to repay principal and interest years down the road.

Saying justice on a keyboard costs nothing—anyone can type it endlessly. But talking about support at the financial table demands constant readiness to lose your principal.

When words clash with real financial interests, positions often quickly give way to the most primal instinct: risk avoidance.

However, if we look beyond the immediate drama and consider the broader chessboard, there’s a different current emerging. Last year alone, total Panda bond issuance in China exceeded 183 billion RMB.

This year, just in the first five months, that number has already reached 136.5 billion RMB—nearly double the same period last year. Not to mention that in current Sino-Russian trade, the share settled in RMB and rubles has already surpassed 99%.

The RMB is quietly evolving from being merely a “trade currency” used for buying goods into a true “financing currency” capable of attracting debt issuance. Whether Rosatom’s 10-billion-RMB bond ultimately gets issued or not, it’s firmly positioned at this historic turning point.

The upcoming meeting with regulators next week will largely determine the short-term trajectory.

If the bond is successfully issued, it will mark another step forward in Sino-Russian financial cooperation. If not, it also reflects the market’s final, sober assessment—overpowering the online hype and emotional fervor.

This is akin to a large-scale social experiment: testing how much weight genuine belief holds when grand narratives require ordinary people to back them with real money.

The countdown on the screen keeps ticking—but in the real world, all attitudes and intentions will eventually reveal their true colors before these cold, hard numbers.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1870039474436096/

Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author