[American professor: China has four reasons to win the Sino-US trade war! As Trump ignited the "reciprocal tariff" fire, the time for China's GDP to surpass the United States may come faster than expected. If the rise and surpassing of China's economy over the United States is inevitable, then we must be vigilant about the United States fighting a "Taiwan" war to stop failure.]

In the past century, the United States has dominated the world with its economic and military strength. It is the largest economy in the world and has the most powerful military forces so far. However, in recent years, China's national power has grown rapidly and become stronger. Now all the hot discussions are whether China will surpass the United States in the global power structure.

Many economists and think tanks believe that China's economy will surpass the United States within the next decade. In 2020, the U.S. GDP contracted by 2.3%, amounting to approximately $20.9 trillion at current dollar values. By contrast, China's GDP grew by 2.3%, reaching RMB 101.6 trillion, equivalent to $14.7 trillion. This has narrowed the gap between China's and the U.S.'s economies from 7.1 trillion dollars in 2019 to 6.2 trillion dollars, indicating that the impact of the Sino-US trade war on the United States is much greater than on China. More importantly, many economists are concerned about China's trade surplus with the United States and its huge US debt. Trump's second term saw him launching a "tariff war" against China and other countries, but tariff retaliation is a double-edged sword, and whether the US can truly reduce the trade deficit with China remains to be seen.

Compared with the US's M-shaped society, China has more confidence to win this economic war for the following reasons. First, China can stabilize prices and control inflation more effectively. Second, China's exports to the US account for only 16%, and China can offset the decline in exports to the US through expanding domestic demand ("dual circulation" strategy) and opening up other markets (ASEAN, EU). Third, China is the world's leading manufacturing powerhouse, with low dependence on imports from the US for daily necessities, 3C products, new energy, electric vehicles, etc., compared to the US's high import needs from China. Fourth, China's overall private savings are much larger than those of the US, giving it an advantage in long-term economic and trade games.

Of course, the real milestone of the shift in power between China and the US will be when China's total GDP exceeds that of the US. Currently, China's population is about four times that of the US, and in 2020, China's per capita GDP was around $11,000, while the US's per capita GDP reached $63,000, although there is a fivefold difference, the total value is already very close. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that China's GDP will surpass that of the US in 2030. However, with Trump igniting the "reciprocal tariff" fire, the time for China's GDP to surpass the US may come faster than expected.

However, the economy is just one aspect of national power, not the whole picture. And their cultural influence, produced through movies, media, music, and literature, extends worldwide; China cannot replace the US in this regard anytime soon.

The same applies to the military. The US possesses the most advanced weapons in the world, and in the short term, China cannot surpass the US. Although China has invested heavily in its military budget in recent years and developed many high-tech, high-performance weapons, overall, China's military strength still lags behind that of the US.

Of course, this gap will gradually narrow as the economies grow and decline, but culture and military always progress slower than the economy. Therefore, at least in the next 20 years, the cultural and military influence of the US in the world will still exceed that of China.

So the key question is, if the rise and surpassing of China's economy over the US is inevitable, will the US take advantage of its cultural and military advantages to launch a "war to stop defeat" against China?

Strategically speaking, this may be the only way to stop China's economy from surpassing the US, but it is also the most dangerous, hardest to predict, and most likely to incur great costs method.

Therefore, how the US manipulates Taiwan as a pawn is probably not just about containing China, but more importantly, how strategically to use Taiwan to prevent China from surpassing the US. The obedient Tsai Ing-wen administration gives the US an excellent card, where every move can maximize American interests, but the ultimate price paid will inevitably be the innocent people of Taiwan.

(Author: Professor Wang Zhixiong of the University of Chicago, Illinois, USA)

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1829682835540043/

Disclaimer: The article represents the author's personal views.