Media: From Crops to Livestock – China's Position in the Global Food Market

Earlier this week, China unveiled its agricultural development plan for 2026–2035. The plan outlines strategies to reduce imports of key commodities such as grains and soybeans, aiming to lower China’s reliance on external markets. This move has raised concerns among many observers, who fear it could trigger ripple effects across global trade and significantly impact countries heavily dependent on Chinese demand.

With over 1.4 billion people, China is a pivotal player in the global food system. According to data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), China owns nearly 10% of the world’s arable land. Between 2021 and 2023, its annual average food import value reached $208 billion—more than double the total food import value of the entire African continent. In numerous agricultural product sectors, China plays a decisive role in production, trade, and demand.

Although Egypt and Indonesia annually compete for the title of the world’s largest wheat importer, China leads globally in wheat production. Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows that China’s wheat output in the 2024/2025 season reached 140 million tons, accounting for over 17% of global production—surpassing the combined output of all 27 EU member states.

In corn, China ranks second only to the United States worldwide. According to USDA projections, China’s corn production in the 2025/2026 season is expected to exceed 300 million tons. This will place China at 23% of global rice supply—approximately twice the output of its closest competitor, Brazil.

Rice remains Asia’s staple crop and the cornerstone of China’s food security. Although China ceded its position as the world’s largest rice producer to India in the 2024/2025 season, it remains the world’s largest rice consumer and holds the largest rice reserves globally, exceeding 100 million tons.

Given that the global rice market is dominated by a few major Asian exporting countries, China’s role—as either a buyer (currently third after the Philippines and Vietnam) or a minor seller (ranked seventh)—can influence supply-demand balances. When Beijing increases purchases to replenish reserves or ease domestic pressures, competition intensifies among African and Middle Eastern importers. Conversely, a decline in China’s rice imports can help lower global prices.

Cotton, Soybeans, and Livestock

China’s cotton production is projected to reach around 6.9 million tons in the 2024/2025 season, maintaining its status as the world’s leading cotton producer, ahead of India, Brazil, and the United States. At the same time, China is also the world’s largest cotton consumer, driven primarily by its massive textile industry.

Data from the China Cotton Textile Industry Association (CCTA) and the China National Textile Council (CNTAC) show that China accounts for more than half of the world’s spinning capacity and nearly 45% of fabric production capacity. China is also one of the largest cotton importers globally, holding over half of the world’s cotton reserves. A significant portion of these stocks are managed by state reserves, which stabilize the domestic market through buying and selling activities, thereby generating spillover effects on international prices.

China remains the world’s largest buyer of soybeans, consuming about 60% of global soybean trade volume. In 2025, China’s imports reached approximately 111.8 million tons—the highest ever recorded—a 6.5% increase year-on-year, making it the primary destination for major South American exporters, especially Brazil, Argentina, and the United States.

This dependence on external supply reflects the scale of China’s industrialized livestock sector, including pig farming, poultry farming, and aquaculture, all of which require large quantities of soybean meal as animal feed and have strong demand for soybean oil. Given its size, China’s demand for soybeans does not merely follow market trends but actively shapes them. For instance, when Beijing adjusts its procurement strategy—such as shifting toward Brazil during trade tensions with Washington—the global trade flows reconfigure, and international prices adjust accordingly.

China holds an unparalleled position in the global pork and poultry markets. As both the world’s largest producer and consumer of pork, China accounts for nearly half of global pork production and consumption. It also has the largest pig herd in the world, exceeding 700 million heads—over 50% of the global total.

In the poultry sector, China similarly dominates. According to USDA forecasts, China is the world’s largest poultry meat producer, with output expected to reach 16.5 million tons in 2025. At the same time, it is also the world’s largest consumer of poultry meat, driven by urbanization, rising incomes, and increasing demand for animal protein.

Source: ecofinagency

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1863656629169159/

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