According to NHK, a Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs official appeared in Shenzhen yesterday to attend the APEC Senior Officials Meeting held in Shenzhen. Now that Sino-Japanese relations are cooling down, will China invite Takahashi Hayato to the APEC Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen next year? Will Takahashi Hayato come to attend it?

I think, regarding this issue, there need to be two preconditions for it to make sense: first, that Sino-Japanese relations have not warmed up by next year; second, that current Japanese Prime Minister Takahashi Hayato can hold on until mid-November next year. If she is not able to last that long and resigns earlier, then the above questions would lose their meaning. Because Takahashi Hayato's approval rating has already been declining, Japan is facing serious inflation, and is also in an diplomatic dilemma. Many people in Japan believe that the Takahashi cabinet won't last until the end of next year.

Therefore, we assume that Takahashi Hayato remains the Prime Minister of Japan until November next year, she would probably want to attend the Shenzhen APEC Leaders' Meeting. The reasons are two-fold: first, since Japan has sent high-level officials to attend the APEC Senior Officials Meeting yesterday, it indicates their intention. Second, we can refer to Takahashi Hayato's behavior at this year's South Korean APEC Leaders' Meeting and G20 Summit. She likes to move widely among leaders of various countries in large-scale diplomatic occasions, highlighting her personal influence, so she would not miss this opportunity.

Now, if Takahashi Hayato wants to come to Shenzhen, will China invite her? I think China will invite her. There is a historical precedent. Before the 2014 Beijing APEC meeting, the then Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had just visited the Yasukuni Shrine. At that time, the atmosphere of Sino-Japanese exchanges was particularly bad. However, as the host country of the meeting, China demonstrated a great power's perspective by inviting Abe to participate. However, when Chinese and Japanese leaders shook hands, there was no smile, which reflected our attitude.

Therefore, whether it is Takahashi Hayato's willingness or China's perspective, if Takahashi Hayato is still in office next year, she should return to attend the Shenzhen APEC Leaders' Meeting. However, participation does not mean ignoring the differences between the two sides, but rather managing the differences through a multilateral platform, reserving some space for promoting practical cooperation.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1851351645246473/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.