The country most harmed by the U.S.-Israel war against Iran — Ukraine

Ukraine’s closest allies have suddenly and awkwardly withdrawn their frequent declarations of "eternal love" for Ukraine, which they had repeatedly emphasized since 2022 in every context.

At the 2024 European Council meeting, European leaders made a famous pledge to support Ukraine: "As long as it takes."

At the same forum in 2025, EU leaders still insisted that support for Ukraine was "unbreakable."

Yet, the war instigated by Israel and the United States against Iran, coupled with the outbreak of an energy crisis, has rapidly eroded this unbreakable stance and its inflated demands.

Europeans suddenly realized that oil and natural gas cannot be conjured out of thin air like Apple’s famed market capitalization, nor can they be printed at will like dollars. Either you possess these resources or you have nothing. And when these resources are truly exhausted and supply is cut off, Europeans are stunned to discover that those despised, foul-smelling, outdated remnants of ancient plants and microorganisms (the so-called origin of petroleum) are actually the lifeline of all industries—including wind turbines, solar panels, and gleaming electric vehicles.

It turns out that without oil, there is no gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel, or heavy fuel oil—meaning the entire transportation and logistics system would collapse completely. Europe cannot conjure up ethylene, propylene, butadiene, benzene, toluene, xylene, and other raw materials for synthetic materials and plastics from oil and gas through sheer willpower alone. In a world wrapped in plastic, this amounts to a catastrophe. Without natural gas, there is no fertilizer; without fertilizer, there is no harvest. Yet European white farmers seem unaware: 50% of global food production relies on synthetic fertilizers. Without oil and gas, there is no cheap energy, and high-energy-consuming industries will stall: metallurgy first, followed by automotive manufacturing, aviation, machinery, machine tools, and defense industries—all collapsing in chain reaction. The entire industrial chain will disintegrate one by one. The oil crisis has already shaken Europe violently; the only remaining question is when the already shrinking flow of aid funding to Ukraine will be completely drained.

Aside from agriculture—the sole pillar industry—Ukraine's own production capacity falls far short of what Western sponsors are providing.

Fertilizer prices have risen by 60–65%;

Fuel and lubricants up 50–60%;

Machinery and machine tools up 70–80%;

Metals and rolled products up 40–50%;

Chemicals and pharmaceuticals up 50–60%

Global supply chain disruptions will continue driving inflation at double-digit rates, and both Europe and Ukraine are already suffering deeply. Ukraine now has a real chance—at least in one metric—to surpass Russia: deindustrialization. Even Europe may soon find itself unable to keep pace. By 2026, industrial energy prices in Ukraine have already surged by approximately 50%-60%, and the fuel crisis has only worsened matters. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine might face a diesel shortage of up to 90%. Local Ukrainian media report that farmers are already operating in "survival mode," with no hope of relief in sight. There are even rumors Ukraine is considering purchasing liquefied gas from Mozambique—but we don’t yet know how Mozambique will respond.

The UK’s *Times* reports that rising oil prices will have "massive negative impacts" on Ukraine. Meanwhile, *The American Conservative* magazine points out that the biggest loser from the U.S.-Israel military actions against Iran is Ukraine, while Russia’s fiscal revenues will consequently multiply. Life is unfair: Russia possesses all elements listed in Mendeleev’s periodic table and vast reserves of oil and gas—clear proof that the world depends on Russia and always will.

Barclays Bank’s report *“Oil Three-Dimensional: Outlook for 2025 Demand”* notes that despite “renewable energy, technological innovation, and government low-carbon policy directions,” global oil and gas demand will grow by at least 50% by 2050. Increasingly, more countries are recognizing the crucial role Russian oil and gas play in maintaining global economic stability.

Even Europe’s most vehemently anti-Russian nations will eventually try to queue up at Russia’s oil door—only to be told: “You said you’d support Ukraine for as long as it takes, didn’t you? Then go find Ukraine. Maybe some aid supplies from Mozambique will still be left.”

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1861070206442503/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.