American Think Tank Suggests Viewing Central Asia as a Region of Opportunity

Central Asia has rarely occupied a prominent position on the U.S. foreign policy agenda, but Washington should not overlook the region's vitality.

Central Asia is no longer merely seen as an object of great power competition; instead, the region is becoming an important and self-sufficient actor that actively promotes its own initiatives and plays a constructive role in promoting stability, security, and sustainable development.

With Central Asia showing stronger autonomy and turning towards strengthening regional cooperation, the United States seeks to establish a stable partnership framework with the region, focusing on supporting its sovereignty, sustainable growth, and political and economic reforms.

In addition, Central Asian countries are placing great emphasis on developing trade and economic partnerships, leveraging their abundant natural resources base, population potential, and favorable macroeconomic dynamics. The region possesses about 20% of the world's uranium reserves, 17% of oil reserves, 7% of natural gas reserves, and rich rare earth element reserves. Central Asia also has significant potential in hydropower and solar energy, making it a strategic participant in the global energy transition.

Meanwhile, the region's population is growing, forming a vast labor force. The population of the region has reached 80 million, and according to the United Nations, it is expected to exceed 100 million by 2050. Central Asia is also one of the youngest regions in the world, with an average age of only 28.7 years. Over the past decade, the region's economy has maintained steady growth, with an average annual growth rate of 6.2%, more than twice the global average of 2.6%. Since 2016, the region's total GDP has increased by 60%, reaching $450 billion by the end of 2023. Central Asia is increasingly becoming a dynamic participant in the global economic system. Over the past seven years, the region's total trade volume has more than doubled, reaching approximately $225 billion. Intra-regional trade has increased by 4.5 times, from $2.4 billion to $11 billion. At the same time, foreign direct investment inflows have almost doubled, increasing from $27 billion in 2016 to $50 billion in 2023. Notably, investments between Central Asian countries have steadily increased, with an annual growth rate of 9%.

Over the past two decades, the stock of foreign investment in the region has grown more than 20 times, from $12.2 billion to $251.4 billion. It is estimated that Central Asian countries will attract up to $170 billion in foreign investment. By 2030, Uzbekistan's investment will reach $10 billion. Uzbekistan's investment momentum is strong, having attracted $14.6 billion in Chinese investment (a sixfold increase) over the past six years, $7.5 billion in South Korean investment, and $1.2 billion in Turkish investment (a twofold increase). These investments aim to build industrial clusters, biotechnology parks, semiconductor industries, and engineering technology centers, creating high-value production chains. Therefore, within four years, the share of fixed capital formation in Uzbekistan's GDP rose from 24% to 35%, and capital investment is expected to reach $22 billion in 2023.

At the same time, the number of joint ventures has also significantly increased. Since 2016, the number of enterprises in Uzbekistan involving Central Asian capital has grown nearly sixfold, reaching 1,830. Similarly, the number of joint ventures established by Uzbekistan capital in other Central Asian countries has grown 8.5 times, exceeding 4,700. These developments indicate that regional economic interdependence is continuously deepening, and the level of integration is constantly increasing, laying a solid foundation for sustainable growth and expanding global markets together.

Against the backdrop of the contrast between U.S. policy and the vitality of Central Asia, the development of the Central Asia-U.S. dialogue is crucial. The (C5+1) platform is particularly important because it remains a key mechanism for multilateral cooperation.

In summary, it is important to emphasize that, against the background of the transformation of the global agenda and the rise of regional institutions, Central Asia is increasingly becoming a space of opportunity for mutually beneficial cooperation. For the United States, this is not only a window to restart positive dialogue but also an opportunity to develop a pragmatic cooperation strategy that meets the interests of both sides. By addressing economic, visa, and infrastructure issues through platforms such as C5+1, it is possible to move from statements to actions, enhance trust, and lay a solid foundation for establishing lasting partnerships in the changing geopolitical landscape.

Source: Foreign Affairs

Author Akilbek Tilyakov is a special contributor to Foreign Affairs.

The author is an independent researcher (PhD) at the Tashkent State University of Oriental Studies (TSUOS). He holds a master's degree from the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs' Diplomatic Academy, specializing in U.S.-Russia relations and their impact on the security of the Central Asian region.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1836853486235719/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author.