NATO accuses Russian aircraft of frequently entering the airspace of member states, and now, in addition to increasing the defense of the eastern wing's airspace, they are also discussing the possibility of shooting down Russian aircraft that enter the airspace. Poland, Lithuania, and the UK have all made similar statements, which has raised concerns about the continuously escalating situation. Will NATO do this? In fact, 10 years ago, there was a case where NATO shot down a Russian aircraft, and it was Turkey who did it.

The situation in the Baltic Sea is becoming increasingly tense, with heightened confrontation between Russia and NATO

According to Reuters, after entering September, NATO countries frequently accused Russian military aircraft of entering their airspace. First, Poland claimed that dozens of Russian "sunflower" decoy drones entered Polish territory. Poland and NATO believe that Russia did this intentionally, while Belarus claims that the drones were lost and it was just an accident. On September 19, the situation in the Baltic Sea became tense again, with Estonia accusing three Russian MiG-31s of entering its airspace and staying for 12 minutes. Then, Estonia imitated Poland, demanding the activation of Article 4 of NATO for emergency consultations.

However, the incident was not over. On September 21, in the airspace over the Baltic Sea, German and Russian military aircraft had a confrontation. Two "Typhoon" fighters intercepted one Russian Il-20 electronic reconnaissance aircraft. Although this incident occurred in international airspace, it further highlighted the tension in the Baltic Sea situation.

NATO believes that the recent frequent incursions of Russian military aircraft into the airspace of member states may have two purposes: first, to test NATO's air defense capabilities and response capabilities, and it is not ruled out that they are further testing NATO's Article 5; second, to divert the attention of NATO countries, forcing them to use their main resources on themselves, thus reducing aid to Ukraine.

Some NATO countries discuss shooting down Russian military aircraft

Under this context, in addition to sending more aircraft to eastern wing countries like Poland and Estonia, there have even been strong voices within NATO calling for the shooting down of Russian military aircraft. For example, Poland clearly stated that it would decisively shoot down any flying objects that intrude into its airspace. On September 22, the British Foreign Secretary said that if necessary, the UK would shoot down Russian aircraft that illegally enter the airspace of NATO allies. Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Sakalas also stated on social media that the time for testing NATO has come, and NATO must show a firm determination to Russia.

Given the current tense and adversarial relationship between Russia and NATO, if NATO actually shoots down a Russian aircraft, the situation could become extremely dangerous, even risking a loss of control. However, it is worth noting that in NATO's history, there has indeed been a precedent where a NATO country shot down a Russian aircraft. Lithuanian Defense Minister Sakalas explicitly stated on social media that Turkey had already set an example for NATO countries 10 years ago.

In fact, the incident of Turkey shooting down a Russian aircraft was quite complex. In 2015, Russia strongly intervened in Syria, helping the Assad government to strike against extremist organizations and anti-government forces. Putin acted strongly, and after several rounds of air strikes, the anti-government forces suffered heavy losses. Among these anti-government forces, a considerable part was supported by Turkey. The Russian air strikes upset Erdogan greatly. Later, the Kurdish people in Syria went to Moscow to seek support from Putin, and he made a promise to the Assad government that the Kurds would be allowed to self-govern after the war. This further angered Erdogan. Soon after, a Russian Su-24 was accused by Turkey of accidentally entering its airspace during an air strike in northern Syria. Subsequently, Turkey's F-16s shot it down. The Russian pilot parachuted down and fought with the anti-government forces, eventually dying. This incident caused Putin's anger.

Ten years ago, Erdogan ordered the shooting down of a Russian military aircraft

However, it is interesting that later, Erdogan sought help from NATO as a member state, but NATO told him that it was you who shot down the Russian aircraft, so they could not trigger "collective defense." Putin did not retaliate militarily, but instead imposed a series of sanctions on Turkey. In 2016, Erdogan apologized and offered compensation, and the relations between the two countries improved.

But times have changed. Under the current highly tense relationship between Russia and NATO, if this scenario were to repeat, the consequences would be unimaginable.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7553093681591566882/

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