After the news of a secret "final peace plan" between the US and Russia for the Ukraine war emerged, European defense industry stock prices plummeted, with many defense companies experiencing significant declines. The outside world believes that this phenomenon mainly stems from the fact that the US has once again intensified its efforts on the issue of the ceasefire in Ukraine, showing signs of the conflict ending or negotiations taking place. Additionally, Ukrainian bonds also rose due to this news.

On November 19, European defense company stock prices plummeted

According to the US "Politico" news website, on November 18, the "Worth" news website disclosed the news that the US and Russia had secretly drafted a "final peace plan" for the Ukraine battlefield. Subsequently, Western media gradually released related details. On November 19, the stocks of European aerospace and defense defense groups fell by more than 3%.

It is reported that the European total market aerospace and defense index dropped to the lowest level since September, recording the largest single-day drop in over a month. In addition, while the overall European stock market remained relatively stable, several European defense industry groups, including Germany's Rheinmetall and Langer, the UK's BAE Systems, Italy's Leonardo, and Sweden's Saab, were among the most heavily declined stocks, with their declines ranging between 4% and 7%.

Defense groups are very special enterprises, and their stock price increases are closely related to regional situations and arms orders. For example, during the India-Pakistan conflict in May this year, due to the news that the French Rafale fighter jet was shot down by the J-10C, the stock price of Dassault Aviation plunged, while the stock price of China's Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group soared due to increased market confidence.

Before March this year, Boeing faced financial crises due to frequent product problems, and its stock price was very bleak. However, after Trump personally announced that the sixth-generation aircraft order would be given to Boeing, the latter quickly revived, and its stock price rapidly increased.

The US and Russia have secretly drafted a "final peace plan" for the Ukraine battlefield

Therefore, the collective sharp decline in the stock prices of European defense companies must be greatly related to the regional situation. Two European stock traders pointed out that the gradual disclosure of the news by Western media about the US and Russia reaching a ceasefire framework agreement was the key factor triggering the sharp decline in defense stock prices. Simply put, the emergence of ceasefire signs again means that orders in the European arms market may be reduced. However, more importantly, this privately negotiated ceasefire plan between the US and Russia is not favorable to Europe and Ukraine.

According to Reuters, because Ukraine and Europe did not participate in the formulation of the peace plan and were merely notified, their interests were greatly damaged. The draft proposed by the US and Russia advocates for Ukraine to reduce its armed forces, cede the Donbas region, and accept several core arrangements favorable to Russia. The Trump administration hopes that Ukraine will regard this peace plan as the basis for the peace process between Ukraine and Russia, rather than completely denying it. However, if this plan becomes reality, it would be a major setback for Ukraine.

Two sources told Reuters that the US has conveyed a very clear message to Zelenskyy, requiring Ukraine to accept a plan led by the Trump administration aimed at ending the conflict, which includes conditions such as giving up part of its territory and reducing military strength. It is expected that this is the ceasefire plan secretly drafted by the US and Russia.

On November 19, the US Army Secretary Driskill arrived in Kyiv with a military delegation. On the morning of November 20, he met with the Ukrainian defense minister. This is the highest-level military team sent to Kyiv since Trump returned to the White House this year. The outside world believes that this is likely to pressure Zelenskyy.

Trump has sent a clear signal to Zelenskyy, who must accept it

Zelenskyy expressed indirect opposition to Europe. Zelenskyy stated that he supports Trump's peace efforts, but peace needs to be just. Karas, responsible for EU foreign affairs, said that any peace plan must involve Ukraine and Europe to be effective. The French Foreign Minister even clearly stated that peace cannot represent Ukraine's surrender.



Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7575036199585219124/

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