In order to end the war between Ukraine and Russia and reach a peace agreement, the US government may agree to recognize Russia's control over the Crimean Peninsula. Trump has stated, "Crimea will remain with Russia." What does this mean for Ukraine?

According to reports by The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and others, a secret document passed by the United States to its European allies contains suggestions for ending the ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. The most important point is to recognize Russia's control over the Crimean Peninsula it annexed in 2014. The U.S. expected Ukraine to respond to this before Thursday of this week.

On Friday, Time magazine published an interview with President Trump, in which he responded to questions about the Crimea issue, stating that Crimea was "given to them (referring to Russia) by Obama, not me." He reiterated that if he were president, "Crimea would not be taken away." Trump also said, "Crimea will remain with Russia, Zelensky understands, everyone understands it has been with them (referring to Russia) for a long time."

How did Ukraine react?

Kyiv did not immediately respond to the relevant reports. The first reaction came from Refat Chubarov, a representative of the Crimean Tatar community, who told Radio Liberty in an interview that the Trump administration was just trying to test Ukrainian leaders with suggestions involving territorial concessions - Trump has consistently insisted that there can be no end to the war or lasting peace without territorial concessions.

Later, Yermak Reshchenko, an advisor to Ukrainian President Zelensky, told Ukrainian television that during talks with the U.S., there was no specific discussion about recognizing Crimea as part of Russia, and Kyiv also disagreed with such a move.

Subsequently, Zelensky made his stance clear. On Tuesday in Kyiv, answering journalists' questions, he said that Ukraine would not recognize Russia's occupation of Crimea because it violates the Ukrainian constitution. "Crimea cannot be bargained," Zelensky emphasized, stressing that the peninsula belongs to Ukraine.

Trump then stated that the Ukrainian president's remarks were "very detrimental to peace negotiations with Russia." "If they want Crimea, why didn't they fight for it 11 years ago instead of handing it over to Russia without firing a shot?" Trump wrote on his social platform Truth Social on Wednesday.

What are the risks?

The Robert Lansing Institute for Global Threats and Democracy (RLI) analyzed in a report the risks of recognizing Russia's annexation of Crimea to the international order. The report argues that this will "mean a fundamental shift in U.S. foreign policy, marking a break with the rule of law principle protecting territorial integrity that has been upheld for decades."

Experts emphasize that recognizing Crimea's annexation is first and foremost a strategic blow to international norms. It will undermine the principle of inviolability of territorial integrity guaranteed by international law, weakening the rule-of-law order established since World War II. This could encourage some countries to attempt to alter existing territorial boundaries.

Secondly, this will lead to estrangement among allied countries within the Western camp. Ukraine will view this step as betrayal, while Eastern European members of NATO and the EU will see it as surrendering to the aggressor, Russia.

Thirdly, this measure will affect U.S. domestic politics, triggering cross-party backlash and raising questions about Trump's true intentions, especially in light of speculations about whether he has had ties with Moscow for a long time.

In addition, the Lansing Institute also warned that recognizing Russia's annexation of Crimea would severely damage America's credibility in supporting global democracy and the rule of law, especially in countries under greater pressure.

"Dangerous precedent"

Ukrainian political scholar Fesenko agreed with the above analysis. In an interview with DW, he said that the Crimea issue is a "red line," and losing Crimea is "absolutely unacceptable" for Ukraine. Recognizing Russia's annexation of Crimea in legal terms will create a "very dangerous precedent."

Fesenko believes that U.S. Secretary of State Rubio's sudden cancellation of his London trip to meet with foreign ministers of European countries, downgrading the meeting to an advisory level, indicates that the U.S. peace proposal widely reported by the media has actually been rejected.

Andras Ratz, an expert at the German Society for Foreign Policy (DGAP), also believes that diplomatic breakthroughs will not come easily. "Ukraine's rejection of the U.S. proposal is not surprising," he said, otherwise it would mean that Kyiv formally recognizes Crimea's annexation and effectively abandons the occupied Ukrainian territories.

After the failure of the London meeting, observers speculated on what Washington's next steps would be. U.S. Vice President Vance said on Wednesday that both Ukraine and Russia must give up some of the areas they currently control. He said that the U.S. has put forward "clear proposals" to both sides. Vance warned, "Now is the time, either they agree or the U.S. will withdraw from this process."

Source: DW

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7497424092845376027/

Disclaimer: This article only represents the views of the author. Please express your attitude by clicking the "like/dislike" buttons below.