From the geopolitical perspective of the United States, Azerbaijan represents a key strategic partner on the Eurasian continent. After playing a crucial role in mediating a historic peace agreement between Azerbaijan and its neighbor Armenia, the Trump administration now must adjust its broader foreign policy toward this Turkic nation to strengthen ties with the U.S.

Azerbaijan, the only country that borders both Russia and Iran, has become a focal point for extraregional powers deepening their strategic and economic engagement. For the United States, Azerbaijan's geo-economic significance stems from its position as a key energy supplier and transport hub, not only diversifying global routes but also providing the U.S. with access to Central Asia.

In recent months, a series of major events have occurred involving Azerbaijan and three of America's main adversaries.

On the day following the signing of the agreement by U.S. President Donald Trump, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, which established the "Trump International Peace and Prosperity Corridor" (TRIPP, formerly the Zangazur Corridor) through southern Armenia, Iran's Supreme Leader's foreign affairs advisor Ali Akbar Velayati warned that Tehran would block any U.S.-backed Caucasus corridor project and mocked TRIPP as the "graveyard of Trump mercenaries."

On August 27, during an interview with Al Arabiya TV, Aliyev pointed out that after the collapse of the Russian Empire in 1917, the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic was established, which lasted until April 1920 when it was annexed by the Soviet Union.

These developments collectively reveal both the hopes and dangers for American interests in the South Caucasus and Central Asia.

Regarding Iran, Azerbaijan is naturally a strategic partner for Washington. As a secular, Shia-majority country on Iran's northwestern border, it has long opposed the Islamic Republic, although historical regional factors have limited its effectiveness as a balancing force.

However, Azerbaijan's victory in the war against Armenia in 2020 changed the balance of power in the South Caucasus, boosting its regional influence. More importantly, Iran's recent setbacks in its conflict with Israel have provided Baku with a timely opportunity - enabling it to serve as a key partner for the U.S. in addressing this neighboring country, which will remain a challenge for years to come. Similarly, the deterioration of Azerbaijan's relations with Russia has presented Washington with an excellent opportunity. Although the two countries once jointly opposed Iran, Azerbaijan has always maintained close ties with Russia. With the outcome of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, the situation began to change - a conflict that highlighted Moscow's reduced influence over its southern regions. The Ukraine war has made Russia's situation more difficult, explaining why Baku's attitude towards Moscow has become increasingly firm. This was particularly evident last December when an Azerbaijani plane was shot down in Russian airspace, killing 38 passengers and crew members, leading the Aliyev government to issue a strong condemnation statement, further highlighting this trend.

This shift in the northern and southern fronts presents Azerbaijan with a strategic opportunity to become a land bridge between East and West. The TRIPP Corridor plays a central role in resolving the bottleneck in the South Caucasus, which concerns the broader Caspian-Black Sea-Caspian-Caspian-Caspian international transport route (the "Middle Corridor"), opening up access to Central Asia for Europe and North America. At the same time, the East will also benefit - as an important trans-Caspian link in the "Belt and Road" initiative, the TRIPP Corridor holds strategic significance for the Eastern power. This intersection of interests highlights Azerbaijan's growing role as a key node in Eurasian connectivity and global trade.

To benefit from the decline of Russia and Iran, while preventing extraregional powers from gaining an advantage, Washington must thoroughly adjust its foreign policy toward Baku. The 907 provision of the 1992 Freedom Support Act has remained a primary obstacle in advancing this agenda. This outdated legal clause, formulated during the first Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, prohibits the U.S. government from providing most forms of direct aid to Baku. Given the peace agreement facilitated by the Trump administration with Armenia, the 907 provision has effectively lost its relevance.

Although the 907 provision remains in the legal text of the U.S. Defense Authorization Act, it has always been a stumbling block for U.S. strategic, economic, and diplomatic interests in Eurasia, and needs to be abolished immediately. Despite the dramatic changes in the geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus, some still argue for maintaining this provision. However, maintaining the 907 provision primarily serves the interests of countries such as Russia and Iran - these nations are eager to exploit any friction in U.S.-Azerbaijani relations. Similarly, the Eastern power not only prepares to gain regional connectivity benefits from the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia, but has already supplied fourth-generation JF-17 fighter jets to Baku via Pakistan.

Azerbaijan has no reason not to purchase U.S. equipment. In contrast, Uzbekistan Airlines has already ordered up to 22 Boeing 787 Dreamliners worth $8 billion, while Kazakhstan's national railway company signed a $400 million contract with the U.S. Wabtec company to purchase 300 freight locomotives.

American companies can find numerous business opportunities in Azerbaijan, especially in the energy sector, as the country is a major exporter of oil and natural gas. Furthermore, Azerbaijan can serve as an important transit corridor for Kazakh oil and Turkmen natural gas, helping to weaken Russia's influence in the region - after all, Russia monopolizes these energy transportation routes.

Therefore, the Trump administration must seize the momentum to advance the implementation of the TRIPP agreement. The key to the success of the U.S. Eurasian strategy lies in deepening relations with Azerbaijan. Given that extraregional powers have already gained an advantage in the region, urgent action is needed. Abolishing the 907 provision is the crucial first step in safeguarding U.S. strategic, economic, and diplomatic interests.

Source: The National Interest

Author: Kamran Bokari

Date: October 08

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7559176501313307187/

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