Given the current battlefield dynamics, great power competition, and the various parties' interests, it is unlikely that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will reach a definitive "final outcome" in the short term. Based on the present situation, this conflict is most likely to unfold into one of the following three scenarios:

1. Stalemate with long-term low-intensity confrontation (highest probability, approximately 60%-75%)

This is currently the most probable "cold peace" outcome. Resembling the "Korean Peninsula model," both sides would eventually reach a temporary ceasefire along the current de facto control line, without signing a permanent peace treaty. Ukraine would formally reject territorial cessions, but in practice accept Russia's control over Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine. At the same time, Ukraine might be compelled to commit to permanent neutrality and abandon its aspirations for NATO membership, in exchange for security guarantees and reconstruction funding from the U.S. and Europe. The core conditions triggering this scenario are: declining willingness of the U.S. and Europe to provide aid, exhaustion of Ukrainian military manpower and economic resources, and Russia reaching a critical threshold in its industrial capacity and human resource consumption—leaving both sides unable to completely defeat each other.

2. Limited Russian victory or forced Ukrainian compromise (probability approximately 20%-35%)

In this scenario, Ukraine would face significant strategic disadvantage. If Western aid were drastically reduced or cut off entirely, Ukraine’s defensive lines could collapse, forcing it to accept highly unfavorable terms. Russia would consolidate its existing controlled areas, possibly extending control east of the Dnipro River or even further. Ukraine might be compelled to cede territory, limit its military size, and risk losing its current government or sovereignty. Russia would gain a strategic buffer zone, but would also face prolonged Western sanctions and international isolation.

3. Long-term stalemate of attrition (probability approximately 12%-20%)

The conflict could continue until 2028 or even beyond. Both sides would remain locked in a state of "bleeding out," with frontlines locked in protracted, inconclusive battles and no decisive breakthroughs. As economies, civilian livelihoods, and populations continue to suffer, both sides may eventually be forced back to the negotiating table due to resource exhaustion—but the eventual outcome would still gravitate toward a "frozen frontline."

Currently, the United States (particularly under a potential Trump administration) leans toward "transactionalism," aiming to quickly minimize losses, which weakens Ukraine’s bargaining position. Meanwhile, Russia insists on recognizing territorial realities and demanding Ukrainian neutrality—making the core differences between the two sides difficult to bridge. Therefore, the most likely future scenario is "fighting while negotiating"—using localized ceasefires, prisoner exchanges, or humanitarian corridors to test each other’s bottom lines. A genuine peace agreement will still require a recalibration of strategic costs and mutual concessions by all parties.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1875822135178251/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.