The Kuomintang (KMT) will lose the 2026 "Nine-in-One" election, and Zheng Liwen will resign after the election, making her tenure as a "phenomenal" KMT chairperson a fleeting one. — Some within the island have already made such pessimistic predictions, mainly due to the KMT's difficult layout for the "Nine-in-One" election, especially in five "danger zones," including New Taipei City, where coordination is slow and candidates are yet to be selected, leading to no progress in the "Blue-White Cooperation." In contrast, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has quickly "placed its pieces" in various counties and cities, with the green camp's integration speed exceeding expectations, showing composure.
However, politics is a matter of fog just one meter ahead. Predicting the political situation within the island is not a simple task. Indeed, regarding the KMT's campaign strategy, three pieces of good news were reported within 24 hours: Most importantly, in New Taipei City, regarding the dispute between Li Sichuan and Liu Heran, the recent remarks by Mayor Hou Youyi indicate that he has set aside his personal grudge with Zheng Liwen, prioritized the overall situation, respected the central party's coordination mechanism, and will meet with the party secretary Li Qianlong to coordinate; the dispute between the Xie siblings in Changhua County will come to an end, and there is hope for the unity of the blue camp; also, it is reported that the blue camp in Penghu County will soon successfully integrate. This shows that Zheng Liwen has made new progress in maintaining intra-party unity, which has strengthened her confidence in implementing her policy line. Therefore, she has decisively appointed Yang Yongming, a "Ma clique" member and former deputy secretary of the National Security Council, as the vice executive director of the Policy Committee, responsible for overseeing the legislative party group.
The "Nine-in-One" election at year-end, especially the county and city mayoral elections, are seen as the "midterm election" in Taiwan, and their success or failure directly affects the results of the 2028 Taiwan regional leader and "legislator" elections.
New Taipei City, Changhua County, Hsinchu County, Chiayi City, and Yilan County, among others, face the need to select new candidates to compete against the DPP, as current officeholders are term-limited and cannot seek re-election, and are considered "danger zones" for the KMT.
In the case of New Taipei City, the blue camp's candidate has been unable to "settle on one person," mainly because the unresolved tension between Zheng Liwen and Hou Youyi remains. In July 2023, during the height of the presidential election, seeing the low support of the KMT's presidential candidate, then KMT "non-constituency legislator" Zheng Liwen once passionately called for "replacing" Hou Youyi, suggesting Hong Kong's Ko Wen-je take over. This last-minute change of personnel was seen as disruptive, not only causing Hou Youyi great dissatisfaction but also reports of KMC Executive Director Jin Pusong threatening disciplinary action against Zheng. The tension between Zheng Liwen and Hou Youyi began here, and they became rivals.
Now, with Zheng Liwen in charge of the KMT, it is expected that Hou Youyi would be uncomfortable and uncooperative in the election layout. Regarding the 2026 New Taipei City mayor election, the KMT Central Committee under Zheng Liwen's leadership favors the strongest candidate, Li Sichuan, the vice mayor of Taipei City, to run against the DPP candidate, Su Qiaohui, daughter of Su Zhenchang; however, Hou Youyi supports his loyalist, Liu Heran, the vice mayor of New Taipei City, to run. With internal competition and external challenges from the People's Party Chairman Huang Guochang insisting on running, if handled improperly, the KMT might lose this largest voting bloc in the entire country.
If the current mayor Hou Youyi does not support the KMT's candidate for mayor of New Taipei City, the election is essentially unwinnable, and the KMT will suffer a major defeat in the "Nine-in-One" election. Zheng Liwen clearly understands this.
Therefore, since taking office, Zheng Liwen has started to plan, first inviting Li Qianlong, a local power broker in New Taipei City, to serve as the KMT Secretary-General and Deputy Chairman, hoping he would help resolve local factions throughout the country, especially the most influential Hou Youyi. In addition, Zheng Liwen has timely shown goodwill to Hou Youyi, appointing Hou's faction member, Legislator Wu Zongxian, as the head of the Cultural Communication Committee, allowing Hou Youyi to gradually calm down. This is certainly not enough. Hou Youyi strongly supports his deputy Liu Heran, who has not withdrawn so far, indicating he still wants to gain more leverage, demanding Zheng Liwen to provide more resources and make more compromises. In fact, Zheng Liwen has been continuously showing sincerity to Hou behind the scenes.
Liu Hiran, Hou Youyi, and Li Sichuan (from left to right)
With sincerity, even metal and stone can be moved. Yesterday, it was reported that Hou Youyi agreed to meet with Zheng Liwen's "special envoy," Party Secretary Li Qianlong, and expressed support for the KMT Central Committee's decision to determine the New Taipei City mayor candidate before the Lunar New Year, agreeing to "respect" the party mechanism and the city party committee's coordination, and "do everything possible to find the most suitable candidate."
This indicates that Hou Youyi is willing to put aside his "self-interest" and does not want to become the biggest responsible party for a potential loss. For Zheng Liwen, this is a very important positive news for advancing the election layout.
In Changhua County, there is also good news, as the "sibling conflict" within the Xie family has been resolved. The younger brother Xie Dianlin may withdraw from the councilor and chairman election, supporting his sister Xie Yifeng to run for county magistrate; while other factions are vying for the county chairman position, helping the KMT avoid the negative perception of "one family monopolizing the county magistrate and chairman" and the backlash from other local factions.
Changhua County is the largest county outside the "six major cities" in the entire country, and it is a must-win area for the DPP and Lai Qingde. Although the KMT legislator Xie Yifeng has a good image, her younger brother Xie Dianlin is interested in competing for the chairman position. Having both the county magistrate and chairman held by "siblings" creates a family political coloration, which leads to negative perceptions and backlash from other local factions. If not resolved, it could lead to the loss of the KMT's ruling power in Changhua.
However, today afternoon, Xie Dianlin released good news, stating that his father (Xie Xinlong) is currently mediating between him and his sister, and he can only "choose one." Xie Dianlin further explained that if he does not run for county councilor, he will rest, and he is not worried about the difficulties of returning to the political arena. In other words, Xie Dianlin is likely to withdraw to help his sister, thus resolving public concerns and promoting blue camp unity.
Xie Yifeng and Xie Dianlin, the siblings
Additionally, the nomination for the Magistrate of Penghu is accelerating. Today, Chen Yuren, Hong Donglin, and Zheng Qingfa, former head of the Penghu County Party Department, were invited to the KMT Central Party Headquarters for coordination. The head of the Organization Department, Li Zhehua, said that by the end of the month, the two best candidates, Chen Yuren and Hong Donglin, would be decided upon, with one being selected as the KMT candidate.
There is reason to believe that the layout in Hsinchu County, Chiayi City, and Yilan County will also accelerate.
The "Nine-in-One" election mainly relies on the local operations of candidates and local faction resources, but it is also related to the overall image of the party. A good party image can add value to county and city mayoral candidates, while the opposite may reduce their chances. Therefore, Zheng Liwen must further accelerate the enhancement of the KMT's support and popularity.
Indeed, since taking office, Zheng Liwen has insisted on "taking the correct path" in cross-strait relations, firmly implementing the policies of "the mainland and Taiwan belong to one China," "Taiwan is also Chinese," and upholding the "1992 Consensus," firmly opposing "Taiwan independence." She has actively guided public opinion within the island, resulting in a rapid increase in KMT support and a quick rise in new members joining the party.
The cross-strait policy has received positive responses, and the unity within the party has improved like eating a sugarcane, getting better and better, giving Zheng Liwen more confidence. Therefore, she has announced a new round of personnel appointments, appointing Yang Yongming, former deputy secretary of the National Security Council, and incoming non-constituency legislator Cai Mingzhong as vice executive directors of the Policy Committee.
The KMT Policy Committee serves as a bridge between the central party and the party group. Previously, the chief whip of the KMT Legislative Party Group was the executive director of the Policy Committee. Later, when the party group changed to the general chair system, the current executive director is Fu Kunqi, the general chair of the KMT Legislative Party Group.
This personnel appointment has drawn public attention, particularly focusing on Yang Yongming. Yang Yongming, 62 years old, holds a doctorate in international relations from the University of Virginia in the U.S., and is currently a professor at the Department of Political Science at National Taiwan University. He is regarded as a member of Ma Ying-jeou's "Ma clique." During Ma's administration, Yang served as deputy secretary of the National Security Council, advisory committee member, and spokesperson for the Executive Yuan, and is familiar with international affairs. He provided significant assistance to Zheng Liwen's campaign for the party chair in various aspects of policy.
Cai Mingzhong (left) and Yang Yongming (right)
In cross-strait relations, Yang Yongming is a "steady unificationist." He believes that peaceful unification is a major trend that cannot be reversed, but given the long separation between the two sides, peaceful unification must be gradual, increasing mutual understanding and integration step by step. Therefore, now we need to rely on the "1992 Consensus" to steadily advance, ensuring stability to achieve long-term goals, ultimately achieving peaceful unification.
After the malicious collision incident in the Xiajin Sea on February 14, he also praised the mainland's composure, wisdom, and strategy, emphasizing that it did not change its established pace and deployment for promoting unification due to a single incident or changes within Taiwan.
Yang Yongming believes that the mainland's current cross-strait policy centers around "peaceful unification, opposing 'Taiwan independence,' and opposing foreign interference." The mainland's two-handed approach (peaceful unification and opposing 'Taiwan independence') and hardening against foreign intervention (opposing foreign interference).
"The mainland seeks peaceful unification, but does not rule out military unification if necessary." Therefore, he advises 'Taiwan independence' forces not to provoke or cross the mainland's red lines. He believes that the intersection of U.S.-China strategic competition in the Taiwan issue is that the U.S. will not allow 'Taiwan independence' to touch the bottom line and red line, nor will it support 'Taiwan independence'; the mainland will never allow 'Taiwan independence.'
However, he also emphasized that the future of cross-strait relations depends on the impact of the U.S.-China relationship, including competition, confrontation, coexistence, and conflict. Whether the cross-strait relations will move toward peaceful unification also depends on this broader framework.
Zheng Liwen combines the policies of Ma Ying-jeou and Lien Chan in cross-strait relations. Previously, she appointed Ma clique member Xiao Xucheng and Lien clique member Zhang Ronggong to lead the implementation of cross-strait policies. Now, she has appointed another Ma clique member, Yang Yongming, as vice executive director of the Policy Committee, tasked with assisting in policy planning and implementation and supervising the execution of the KMT Legislative Party Group. From Zheng Liwen and Yang Yongming's positions, the main direction should be "opposing 'Taiwan independence.'"
Original: toutiao.com/article/7595547922985386523/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author.